Considering that WIDE range of prices between your bear case and the bull case, even the huge difference between your bear case and your base case, I reckon I would personally have a price target or valuation that was a lot closer to my bear case valuation than to my base case valuation, particularly if you are fairly negative on the stock, or believe their report is more negative than positive, as indicated in your straw @Bradbury . This one is well outside my own wheelhouse, so I wouldn't be investing in them - been burnt with too many biotechs when I was younger and sillier. These days I'd rather make direct donations to medical research and claim the tax deduction than do it via propping up the salaries and directors' fees at biotechs and then having to claim a capital loss. But then, perhaps I'm just getting old and cynical...