On April 5, the Mining Permit decision is released. The two outcomes (noting there will be subtleties around reindeer herding compensation, monitoring, etc.);
1) Permitting denied, resulting in $TLG appealing, awaiting Critical Raw Materials Act implementation before reapplying, etc. The share price will likely tank to around 60 cents per share.
2) Permitting approved, minimising regulatory risk, and allowing financing, offtakes, and early works to begin. The share price potentially will rally to around $2.40, as Stage 2 the 100 kT pa phase permitting probability increases.
It's quite a stark outcome. Probably best to wait and see......
Talga have been pumping out lots of positive announcements lately, but the market reaction has been only tepid. In my mind, this sort of event provides a good opportunity to reflect and cross-check your thesis. I've been very bullish TLG for a while now, but one aspect of risk I've just noticed is the MOU with Mitsui they signed back on June 28. According to that announcement, Mitsui and LKAB extended the deadline of an existing letter of intent to enter into a JV with Talga. The deadline was extended until 30 Nov 21 and as yet, there has been no JV announcement. Over the last months, Mitsui have been doing deep DD on the TLG business and if the MOU expires without any agreement, that would represent a blow to my conviction. I have a sinking feeling that the recent spate of announcements may well be an effort to elevate the share price before the deadline expires. Hoping to be wrong here...
HELD
Seems Like Mark was expecting a larger pump form the announcement today regarding the MOU with Long Time Technology.
He dropped a tweet to help investors realise how big Long Time Technology, and their backers are:
Here is an article on Foxconn Tech. Group, Long Time Tech's parent company "The world’s largest contract manufacturer is offering car and truck makers an open platform for EVs"
With a possible JV & financing announcements over the next few weeks, A PR firm working with Talga Group has organised an upcoming webinar, featuring Talga Group.
TOPIC: Green anodes: Making Europe a leader in low carbon batteries
Notable features of the webinar:
1) Opening remarks and moderation by Megan Richards, Senior Advisor to Rud Pedersen Public Affairs and former Director at DG ENER, European Commission
2) Expert panel will include: Head of Unit at DG GROW, European Commission (Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs) ; Head of EU Government Relations & Public Affairs at ABB; & Member of the European Parliament.
AGENDA:
Achieving the goals set out in the European Green Deal and the vision of a decarbonised transport sector will dramatically increase battery demand. The EU will have to ramp up domestic production while meeting its environmental goals and aiming for strategic autonomy in critical supply chains. There are many opportunities within the EU borders itself to advance these goals. One of the key elements is recycling which is talked about a lot. But the EU has also potential for developing local value chains, where the high EU standards of production would apply.
Join us in this session to discuss opportunities to develop a European low carbon battery value chain that provides not only climate and environmental benefits, but also boosts local industry and provides jobs. Explore with this panel of industry representatives and policy makers what does it take to kick off some strong local projects, such as European green battery anode refinery.
Incidentally, DG GROW, European Commission's purpose includes: fostering entrepreneurship and growth by reducing the administrative burden on small businesses; facilitating access to funding for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs); and supporting access to global markets for EU companies
Perhaps a big announcement is in the offering here.
DISC - I HOLD.