On April 5, the Mining Permit decision is released. The two outcomes (noting there will be subtleties around reindeer herding compensation, monitoring, etc.);
1) Permitting denied, resulting in $TLG appealing, awaiting Critical Raw Materials Act implementation before reapplying, etc. The share price will likely tank to around 60 cents per share.
2) Permitting approved, minimising regulatory risk, and allowing financing, offtakes, and early works to begin. The share price potentially will rally to around $2.40, as Stage 2 the 100 kT pa phase permitting probability increases.
It's quite a stark outcome. Probably best to wait and see......
Talga have been pumping out lots of positive announcements lately, but the market reaction has been only tepid. In my mind, this sort of event provides a good opportunity to reflect and cross-check your thesis. I've been very bullish TLG for a while now, but one aspect of risk I've just noticed is the MOU with Mitsui they signed back on June 28. According to that announcement, Mitsui and LKAB extended the deadline of an existing letter of intent to enter into a JV with Talga. The deadline was extended until 30 Nov 21 and as yet, there has been no JV announcement. Over the last months, Mitsui have been doing deep DD on the TLG business and if the MOU expires without any agreement, that would represent a blow to my conviction. I have a sinking feeling that the recent spate of announcements may well be an effort to elevate the share price before the deadline expires. Hoping to be wrong here...
HELD
Thank you, Rapstar. Appreciate the time and effort for your straws.
I hold in RL and look forward to tomorrow for some more info. I just can't see how EU can do without this resource, even if China goes green anode cheap as chips, there still isn't enough according to benchmark and others.
Seems Like Mark was expecting a larger pump form the announcement today regarding the MOU with Long Time Technology.
He dropped a tweet to help investors realise how big Long Time Technology, and their backers are:
Here is an article on Foxconn Tech. Group, Long Time Tech's parent company "The world’s largest contract manufacturer is offering car and truck makers an open platform for EVs"