PYC Therapeutics Limited

ASX:PYC

PYC Therapeutics Limited

ASX:PYC
TradeAdd trade order Follow Unfollow Set Price Alert
$1.820 (-0.5%)
Last close price
#190
Rank
3
Held by
10
Followers
TradeAdd trade order Follow Unfollow Set Price Alert
Reports My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics PYC PYC Q3 Investor Webinare

Pinned straw:
Scoonie
Added 3 months ago

What is it? Make it quick Schoonie.

On Friday 31/8/24 PYC released to the market two announcements. One stating they had orphan drug designation for the Retinitis Pigmentosa (RP-11) treatment drug under development, VP-001. Not unexpected however a positive. 

Secondly they announced a Q3 update.

What was the Q3 update all about?

There was a generalised discussion of where PYC is up to in its three drug development programs (and an early stage further drug being developed for Phelan-McDermid syndrome) and the huge opportunity ahead. This was correctly, tailored to new investors.  

The CEO Rohan Hockings indicated the timing of the next two RP11 readouts, which are this month and just after Christmas. The timelines of the development program were given on presentation slide 13.   

Rohan spent considerable time on the topic captured in the slide heading: “RP type 11 human safety and efficacy data a deep dive today”.

So why did he do that?

I don’t know I am not Rohan Hockings.  However, I suspect it was in response to some investor disquiet in relation to the latest RP11 results released on the 12/8/24.

And what was the investor disquiet?

The Retinitis Pigmentosa trial results for the 3 patients in the SAD trial dosed at 75 micrograms were released on the 12/8/24. The results were reported as an improvement in the 2 of the 3 patients - all well and good. However the results were reported as decibels of eye function improvement. This was a different to the way in which they had reported the results in of the 30-microgram trial a month earlier.  And of course, you would expect a better result for the 75 microgram trial versus the earlier 30 microgram. If you were paying attention you would think: “Hu, what is going on here?”   On the results release the shares flopped down to 10 cents.  Up to this point the VP-001 safety and efficacy results were very encouraging.


Well did Mr Hockings satisfactorily explain the above?

Firstly the CEO Rohan Hockings is a very good communicator and leader. Secondly it is early days for PYC and investors have a propensity to demand a miracle a month or they tend to lose interest.

Not interested in what you think of the CEO or what the market did or did not do.   Did the CEO explain what you seem intimating was some sort of a stumble the company attempted to disguise?

At great length the CEO explained it was still a point of some contention as to what marker/s of improvement the FDA would ultimately accept as an endpoint/s.   He outlined the two methods of microperimetry for measuring improvement in visual acuity. That being: “whole of grid” or taking 5 or more points and seeing if they move by 7db or more. 

Not following you.

Well in a sense from an investment perspective, you don’t have to. 

Explain yourself

The CEO after discussing the ins and outs of retinal functionality and measurement never addressed, to my satisfaction anyway, as to why the reporting of the 75microgram and 30 microgram results were not provided on the same measurement scale.  Which would make you think that the higher dose was not as efficacious as the low dose. How does that make sense or build confidence in what PYC is doing?


Well, did either you, or someone just ask the CEO that bloody question!

No one else did. I did and received no response.

Hang on. No one asked the question.  Then there is no investor disquiet!   Sounds to me like you and you alone have got it all cocked up Scoonie!

That could be true. However I asked the question via the moderator and it was not passed on and addressed by the CEO. I don’t know if I was the only one with this query or not.  Subsequent to the investor update I asked it again, and again silence.   

 

So what are you trying to tell me?

At 13 cents PYC is sporting a solid market cap of around $600m. Whilst it has around cash of around $80m it has no revenue and is not likely to have any for several years, even if the research goes to plan.

Whilst the three drug development programs are all independent and the first in the pipeline RP11 is the least valuable, success with RP11 is critical for PYC to have a decent shot at developing the remainder of the pipeline.


Sounds like you are on a loser Scoonie.

Well in any early stage biotech you could say that and 95% of the time you would be correct.  My interpretation, for what it is worth, is the results reported on the 12/8/24 have shifted the odds against PYC.  However I would not write them off.


Eh!  Thanks for nothing Scoonie.    
mikebrisy
Added 3 months ago

@Scoonie One thing I sometimes do if my questions aren't answered, or if the "facilitator" obfuscates their meaning, is I write to investor relations and repeat the question, indicating that it was put to management on the call but not represented accurately or as intended.

Sometimes, when firms allocate a fixed time slot for the investor call and they run out, they invite shareholders to write to them, and promise to get back to them,

This is also a way of finding out to what extent, if any, the firm is at all interested in shareholders - particularly retail shareholders. A failure to reply is in itself an indication that they don't care. More often than not, I find I get a good response, and sometimes the CEO, CFO or Chair will write back personally.

Anyway, thanks for your post on the webinar. You've given me enough information to steer clear of this company. (That probably means it will be a 10-bagger - who knows!) But I get really concerned when I see overly promotional behaviour in these high risk businesses. You want the trials to be completed and then a proper read-out to be reported together with the statistical significance. How anyone is meant to draw an inference from a small number of individual patient responses is beyond me. In fact, I'd almost say that it's irresponsible of management to behave in this way. However, I don't know enough about this product, the condition or the potential endpoints to level such an allegation. But it is in the back of my mind.

14
Scoonie
Added 3 months ago

Thanks  mikebrisy great points.   It does raise the subject of CEO candor in particular, and candor in life in general.


I am reminded of the story of Gerald Ratner CEO and major shareholder of Ratner’s Jewellery store in the UK.    He had built up and publicly listed what was his family jewellery store. The stores sold budget jewellery.

He was asked to speak at to a meeting of the Institute of Company Directors in London in April 1991. This was before an audience of 6,000 business people and journalists. When his speech had ended, he was asked how he managed to sell a sherry decanter for the super low price of 4.95 pounds. His answer was:  “Because its total crap”.  Apparently, he then went on to run down other items his stores sold. 

The media jumped all over the remarks and it made front page news. Quickly the share price dropped wiping 500 million pounds of the market cap in days. He ended up losing his CEO role and his whole fortune.

So much for candor. (Could not write this without think of Lovisa. Though I think even if you keel hauled Brett Blundy on his mega yacht, you would have zero chance of getting such a confession).

I would guess many ASX companies are fragile in a similar way.   Same applies to many things that are confidence/relationship based.  There is an experiment that we can all try out at home on your wife/partner tonight.

Try out a few loose comments on any topic that comes into your head. Let’s say personal spending habits, physical appearance or what about an honest assessment of your mother-in-law. 

Touch any of these and before you can say “solicitor” watch your personal wealth crash 50% plus.   You will be left preferring a good old 2008 or 2020 stock market meltdown.   At least in those circumstances you have a chance of getting some of it back.  

13