Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 05 Sep 2024 14:58:15
Jimmy
Added 3 months ago

0406 GMT - Australian auto dealers' margins could come under pressure from discounting in response to excess vehicle supply, Macquarie analysts say. They think that on-year volume growth is likely to moderate further in the December half. The analysts tell clients in a note that commentary by dealer management suggests that demand is holding up, but that shifting market dynamics present downside risk to margins through the remainder of the year. Looking ahead to 2025, they observe that analysts are already less optimistic on earnings. Macquarie has an outperform rating on Autosports Group, and a neutral rating on Eagers Automotive. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0107 GMT - IHH Healthcare's proposed MYR3.92 billion acquisition of Island Hospital appears positive, as it is a high-quality asset at a reasonable price, says Hong Leong IB analyst Chee Kok Siang in a note. This is because of Island Hospital's strong brand, strategic Penang Island location and attractive enterprise multiple compared to previous deals, he says. The deal is expected to be earnings accretive even under conservative estimates, he reckons. The proposed acquisition also prevents the hospital from falling into competitors' hands, he adds. Hong Leong maintains a buy rating on IHH and keeps its target price at MYR7.70. Shares are 0.9% higher at MYR6.45.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0100 GMT - Coal miner Coronado's downgrade to annual production and cost guidance will likely raise questions over margins at its Australian mine, Ord Minnett says in a note. "While new guidance is now broadly in line with results from last year (15.8 million metric tons at US$108/ton), this downgrade should give investors some concern about Curragh's profitability in 2H24 given the current softness in pricing for metallurgical coal," the broker says. Ord Minnett has an accumulate rating and A$1.55 target on Coronado, which is down 16% at A$0.92. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0022 GMT - GPT's newest bull cites three reasons for turning positive on the stock. Firstly, Morgan Stanley says occupancy at GPT's offices should rise to around 92% by mid-2025, from less than 87% now, and notes that rivals have a bigger lease expiry profile over the next 18 months. Also, GPT has limited committed capex, and is not encumbered by major projects at a time when the cost of funds is elevated, analyst Simon Chan says. Thirdly, GPT has absorbed larger cap rate expansions and asset devaluations across its investment portfolio in the past two years than other large-cap REITs. MS upgrades GPT to overweight from equal-weight, and raises its price target by 17% to A$5.60. GPT is up 2.9% at A$5.05 in early trade. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2351 GMT - Three new wins announced by oOh!media are likely to contribute the vast majority of the A$38 million in new contract revenue flagged last month by the Australian outdoor advertiser, Goldman Sachs analysts say. They tell clients in a note that the announcement of the three deals is positive, despite being somewhat expected. They see the deals providing greater certainty and clarity around their expectation of contract-led growth. GS keeps a neutral rating and A$1.50 target price on the stock, which is at A$1.25 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2335 GMT - Amcor's choice of new CEO means it's less likely that there will be a significant strategic shift at the packaging company, Macquarie says. Peter Konieczny, who has served as interim CEO since April and has been at Amcor since 2010, has been given the job permanently. Macquarie says Konieczny has already shown a strong grasp of the business since stepping up. "We expect Amcor to remain focused on cost discipline, driving operational leverage as volumes recover, and over the medium-to-long term, leaning into higher-value categories such as protein, coffee, and healthcare as growth avenues for Amcor," Macquarie says. It retains an outperform call on the stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2330 GMT - Orora could have around A$900 million of firepower for either M&A or capital returns once it completes the A$1.775 billion sale of its North American packaging-solutions business, UBS says. That assumes Orora reduces leverage to the low end of its existing target range of 2.0-2.5x. "We think the stock is pricing in an enterprise value of A$2.2 billion for the Australasia business (including Can expansions), and A$1.4 billion for Saverglass," analyst Nathan Reilly says. UBS retains a "neutral" call on Orora's stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2319 GMT - Australian real-estate advertiser REA would need to raise about A$6.1 billion of equity to acquire U.K. counterpart Rightmove, according to Macquarie analysts. They tell clients in a note that a 20% takeover premium would be sensible, and reckon that an all-cash offer would be required. Valuing Rightmove at 16 times Ebitda, they think that A$4.1 billion of debt and A$6.1 billion of equity looks about right. They see a deal being 14% accretive to REA's EPS, but see limited operational benefits from combining the companies. Macquarie lifts its target price on REA by 0.4%, to A$229.00 and keeps an "outperform" rating on the stock, which is at A$201.00 ahead of the open. REA is 61% owned by News Corp, which owns Dow Jones & Co., the publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2312 GMT - The A$1.775 billion price fetched for Orora's OPS unit showed it was a far better business than generally assumed, says Jefferies analyst Richard Johnson, who had valued it at A$1.5 billion. Orora will now become a drinks-packaging specialist and Jefferies says "there are valid questions about the long-term logic of selling a very high return-on-capital business to support one with far lower ROC." It also means Orora's bet on premium wine bottle business Saverglass is now bigger, given it will account for 42% of total Ebit. "It will be interesting to see whether private equity also takes the view that Saverglass is more valuable than the market gives it credit for," Jefferies says. "This may well be the case." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2302 GMT - Aussie Broadband's A$99.8 million gross proceeds from the sale of its 12% stake in Superloop puts the company in a good place to consider capital-management initiatives, suggests Ord Minnett. It says Aussie Broadband will be close to a net cash position if proceeds are used to cut debt. "The strong balance sheet position provides options for incremental investment into capex projects, M&A and capital-management initiatives," analyst Ian Munro says. "We see a share-buyback program as the most likely capital-management option, followed by a special dividend." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2300 GMT - Woodside Energy gets a new bear in Citi, which thinks the company's acquisition spree isn't over. Woodside is moving to complete the $900 million purchase of Tellurian and the $2.35 billion acquisition of a U.S. ammonia project from OCI Global. In a note, analyst James Byrne contends that Woodside wants to become a significantly bigger company in the 2030s, despite having already bought assets at the top of the cycle. "But with no credible upstream growth in the hopper, a single asset in blue ammonia lacking portfolio benefits, and a burgeoning Atlantic Basin LNG portfolio, we don't believe the M&A spree is done," Citi says. It downgrades Woodside to sell, from neutral, projecting lower dividends in 2025 and 2026 than the market expects. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2246 GMT - Orora has signaled a readiness to return capital to shareholders once the A$1.775 billion sale of its North American packaging solutions to Veritiv completes, prompting Macquarie to ponder what that might look like. It reflects on Orora's capital-management plan following the sale of its fiber business in 2020. Then, Orora undertook a capital consolidation and on-market share buyback. "We estimate a 10% buyback (A$360 million cost) would be 3% EPS accretive (but have not factored this in)," Macquarie says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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