0216 GMT - Apollo Global Management's decision to cut its stake in Challenger Financial suggests that it has identified better growth opportunities than the Australian investment manager, Goldman Sachs analysts say. Admitting that the motivation for Apollo's sale and redeployment of capital are unclear, they tell clients in a note that Apollo looks to have made only a small gain over the last few years. Challenger's stock tumbled 11% in a single session after it announced that Apollo had reduced its stake to 9.9% from 20.1%. The GS analysts wonder whether Apollo will keep its board representative and see risk of a further selldown. GS has a buy rating and A$8.00 target price on Challenger shares, which are up 1.4% at A$6.32. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0143 GMT - Growth within Transurban's network of toll roads in Australia's New South Wales state looks possible but the timing remains uncertain, Jarden analysts tell clients. They write in a note that they like the ASX-listed company's efforts to continue progressing key controllables including negotiations with the state government on toll reform and cost efficiencies, but warn that details remain unclear and any implementation could be long-dated. Summarizing a recent meeting with management, the analysts also note the company's desire to remain disciplined on M&A and the absence of any adverse effects to date from the opening of Sydney's new rail system. Jarden keeps a neutral rating and A$12.40 target price on the stock, which is down 0.7% at A$13.63. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0106 GMT - ASX has limited scope to grow earnings given the elevated regulatory and technology costs facing the Australian market operator, Jarden analysts write in a note. They tell clients that the costs, coupled with a rising depreciation and amortization profile from FY 2025, are a key component of their decision to stay neutral on the stock despite a positive revenue outlook. They point out that equity market activity was mixed in August, with average daily equity turnover up 7% on a year earlier, but capital raisings were down 29%. Jarden keeps a A$59.75 target price on the stock, which is up 0.5% at A$63.21. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0040 GMT - Investors have gotten too hungry for Mexican food chain Guzman y Gomez, driving its valuation up so high that UBS downgrades the stock to sell from neutral. Since its June IPO, Guzman y Gomez's shares have risen around 2/3 in value to A$37.34, putting them above UBS's new price target of A$35.00/share. Still, analyst Shaun Cousins says there's lots to like about Guzman y Gomez, with prospectus earnings forecasts likely to be beaten. It estimates a 37% compound annual growth rate in Ebitda across FY 2023-2030, cementing a view that Guzman y Gomez can sustain an enterprise value-to-Ebitda multiple well above other Australian fast-food chains. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2347 GMT - It's unsurprising that Arcadium Lithium needs to suspend its Mt Cattlin lithium operation, say Macquarie analysts, who say management is acting sensibly amid a sharp downturn in prices. "Management's prudent move to simplify portfolio, slow expansion speed, conserving cash and maintaining margins highlights its growth optionality," the analysts say, reiterating target prices of A$6.60 and US$4.40 on its Australian and U.S. stock, respectively. Macquarie also reiterates an outperform rating on both. "We continue to believe the company could explore to divest the asset as an alternative to care and maintenance once lithium market stabilized," say the analysts. The miner closed at A$3.58/share in Sydney Thursday. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2316 GMT -- Coal miner Coronado is unlikely to pay a final dividend this year, Macquarie analysts project based on their coal price forecasts. The miner Thursday cut its 2024 output guidance by 7% and raised its cost guidance by 11% because of heavy rain in Australia and a conveyor outage. "Although financial impacts may partially mitigate losses, the deleveraging catalyst has been pushed out," say the Macquarie analysts, cutting their target on Coronado by 14% to A$1.80/share. The analysts keep an outperform rating on the miner because of its exposure to hard coking coal, used to make steel. Coronado fell by 16% Thursday to close at A$0.92/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com)

2313 GMT - Operating cash flows and available liquidity should be sufficient to fund Coronado's growth pipeline despite yesterday's rain-driven 6.5% downgrade to annual coal-production guidance, says Jefferies. Analyst Daniel Roden notes that Coronado's $220 million-$250 million capex guidance hasn't changed, which indicates the Mammoth development at Curragh in Australia remains on schedule for first output in December. Still, Jefferies now anticipates an around six-month delay. Separately, Coronado is advancing an expansion of its Buchanan mine in the U.S., which is due to be completed by 2Q of 2025. That expansion aims to lift coal production to 7.0 million tons/year, from 5.8 million tons in 2024.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2255 GMT -- Capricorn Metals is upgraded to outperform, from neutral, by Macquarie which now sees clear near-term growth opportunities that can rev up its stock. One of these is an expanded mill at Capricorn's Karlawinda project. Capricorn is assessing whether processing capacity can rise by 50% to 6.5 million-7 million tons of ore annually. "We now incorporate a long-term process rate of 6.5 million tons/year into our outlook for Karlawinda which sees production lift by 40% in FY 2026-FY 2040," Macquarie says. It also cites a possible move underground at the Mt Gibson development project. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2301 GMT - Heavy rainfall that inundated the Curragh mine and prompted Coronado to cut its output guidance likely affected neighboring operations in the Bowen Basin as well, Jefferies says. The bank lowers forecasts for Whitehaven Coal's Blackwater and Daunia mines in the September quarter, but keeps FY 2025 guidance unchanged. "Increased wet weather into 2024 year-end coupled with restricted hard coking coal production from some key assets such as Grosvenor could offer some respite to the suppressed demand for premium quality coking coal," analyst Daniel Roden says in a note. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires