Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 10 Sep 2024 15:01:11
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0148 GMT - It will probably take some time for ARB Corp's U.S. associate to turn around performance at the 4 Wheel Parts retail chain, Canaccord Genuity analyst Andrew Hodge warns. The proposed acquisition would provide a solid footprint of stores through which to sell ARB products, but 4 Wheel Parts has been in decline since 2016 and things have gotten worse under its current owner, Hodge writes in a note. He adds that the size of Australian auto-parts supplier ARB's contribution to the US$30 million purchase by its ORW associate isn't clear. More positively, ORW President Greg Adler is a former 4WP CEO and looks well-placed to lead a turnaround, Hodge says. Canaccord Genuity has a hold rating and A$38.30 target price on ARB shares, which are down 0.6% at A$42.08. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0016 GMT - ANZ looks likely to keep trading at lower multiples than other major Australian lenders, Morgan Stanley analyst Richard E. Wiles writes in a note. He tells clients that Australia's fourth-largest major bank by market capitalization has a full agenda of company-specific issues, including the integration of its Suncorp Bank acquisition, conduct-related matters and CEO succession planning. Wiles also thinks that investors will increasingly scrutinize ANZ's progress in building its ANZ Plus retail-banking platform and the risks around customer migration. MS raises its target price by 5.0% to A$27.50 and keeps an underweight rating on the stock, which is up 0.5% at A$31.68. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0005 GMT - Stockland's 15% share-price rise over the past month hasn't curbed Citi's enthusiasm, despite investors questioning whether the stock now reflects any boost from the planned acquisition of 12 residential masterplanned communities from Lendlease. Analyst Suraj Nebhani says Stockland is trading at 15 times FY 2025 earnings, below Mirvac's 17x and the sector average of 16x. "Moreover, given the stronger growth outlook beyond FY 2025, and a potential for a residential recovery as rates are lowered over the next 12 months, we see upside to both the P/E and the earnings being priced into the consensus," Citi says. It retains a buy call on Stockland. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0002 GMT - Incoming Westpac Chief Executive Anthony Miller's five key tasks for 2025 include controlling investment spending and operating costs during the first full-year of the lender's tech overhaul, Goldman Stanley analyst Richard E. Wiles says. He says that the overall strategy is settled but Miller faces a number of challenges. Wiles tells clients in a note that Miller's other tasks are to settle on his senior management team, build on Westpac's recent retail-banking improvement, return the business bank to growth, and to navigate political, regulatory and economic uncertainties. GS has an underweight rating and A$26.50 target price on the stock, which is at A$31.87 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2338 GMT - Jobs platform Seek is Macquarie analysts' only cyclical exposure among Australian communications stocks, based on the expectation that any interest-rate cuts would benefit ad volumes. They are cautious about drawing early conclusions from their own tracking data, but point out that August job-ad volumes were down 14% on year, compared with a 19% decline in July. The on-year decline was 20% in June, according to Macquarie data. They tell clients in a note that they typically see rate cuts as a driving factor behind higher job ads. Macquarie keeps an outperform rating on the stock and raises its target price 8.7% to A$25.00 in recognition of marketplace-peer valuation multiples. Shares are at A$22.97 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2320 GMT -- ARB Corp's new investment in U.S.-based associate ORW is seen positively by Wilsons analysts, who see it adding scale to the Australian auto-parts supplier's retail distribution. The broker's analysts tell clients in a note that the investment, which increases ARB's stake in ORW and helps fund ORW's acquisition of retailer 4 Wheel Parts, secures access to a well-regarded specialist retailer on favorable terms. They add that a number of former 4 Wheel Parts executives hold senior roles at ORW and ARB, easing any worries over continuity and execution. Wilsons lifts its target price on ARB by 0.7% to A$47.85/share and maintains an overweight rating. Shares are at A$42.35 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2321 GMT - ImpediMed needs to show an acceleration in installations of its Sozo device, which allows monitoring of heart-failure patients at home, signals Canaccord Genuity. That's because ImpediMed's cash pile is shrinking. An operating cash outflow of A$17.8 million in FY 2024 means it began the current fiscal year with A$24.6 million in cash. "Our key focus from here remains on the timing to new installed base growth, with sharp focus on whether current cash can sustain the 6-9 month sales cycle once more payor additions come through," analyst Elyse Shapiro says. CG moves to "speculative buy," from "buy," on ImpediMed and lowers its price target by 36%, to A$0.09/share. ImpediMed ended Monday at A$0.046. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2258 GMT -- Charter Hall Retail REIT's proposed takeover of Hotel Property Investments in partnership with Host-Plus could boost its pro-forma FY 2025 EPS by around 1.5%, estimates Morgan Stanley. That assumes "the debt package of the asset holding vehicle is consistent with Hotel Property Investments's current position," analyst Simon Chan says. Still, it faces a challenge to getting a deal done. Hotel Property Investments has urged its shareholders to reject the consortium's offer of A$3.65/share. MS says the offer implies Charter Hall Retail REIT's share of the transaction cost would be around A$306 million, funded via existing corporate debt at approximately 5.25%. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2259 GMT - Stockland's possible sale of its Forest Reach community in the Illawarra region of New South Wales would be a positive as it would remove a regulatory hurdle in the way of its planned acquisition of 12 residential masterplanned communities from Lendlease, Morgan Stanley says. Selling Forest Reach would clear the way for Stockland to acquire Lendlease's Calderwood Valley project. Analyst Lauren A. Berry notes Calderwood Valley is much larger at some 2,780 lots and has more years to trade than Forest Reach, which has 476 lots remaining. "Forest Reach currently makes up circa 150/year of Stockland's 5,300-5,600 settlements, so a sale would be minimally dilutive," Morgan Stanley says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1847 ET - Macquarie says APA's borrowing capacity could be crimped to the tune of A$500 million-A$700 million by uncertainty over its earnings outlook from a regulatory review of the South West Queensland Pipeline. In a note, Macquarie says A$60 million of earnings could be at risk over 2028-2034. If APA finds its borrowing capacity constrained then it would need more equity for growth opportunities, it says. "We estimate by lifting the payout ratio to 70%, APA can raise A$700 million-A$1.0 billion and still hold the current A$0.57 dividend flat in FY 2025 and FY 2026," Macquarie says. "At this stage, we see this as ample capital to cover the Pilbara growth projects." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0501 GMT - ARB Corp.'s plan to increase its stake of its U.S. associate and take an indirect share of the 4 Wheel Parts retail chain helps address a previously missed opportunity in the eyes of Jefferies analysts. They tell clients in a note that they were disappointed that Australian auto-parts supplier ARB did not acquire 4 Wheel Parts when it was available in 2022, seeing it as an opportunity to expand its U.S. retail footprint. So, they look positively at ARB's plan to raise its stake in associate ORW to 50% by helping fund its acquisition of 4 Wheel Parts. Jefferies has a last-published underperform rating and a A$33.00 target price on the stock, which is up 5.7% at A$42.105. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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