10-Sep-2024: MIN SP = $30.29 (today's close). That's a comprehensive yet fairly concise bull case straw for the patient value investor @Rocket6 - and I think you've nailed the investment thesis - and I agree, except I need to avoid paper losses for 18 months until I can get full control of all of my superannuation money, instead of just investing 80% of it in ASX300 stocks - so in the first half of calendar 2026 I'm expecting to withdraw either all of it or most of it and directly invest it through a different structure - and to withdraw it I have to sell out of everything because it's in an industry super fund (CBUS) and the shares I hold there are currently held in their name (CBUS), not in my name (this is why AustralianSuper, Australia's largest industry super fund keep becoming and ceasing to be substantial holders for a number of ASX300 companies - a lot of that is because of buying and selling by their members, while the shares are technically owned and ultimately controlled by AustralianSuper - so they have to lodge those notices).

So I don't want to buy them in my SMSF and then have to lock in a capital loss in 18 months. They may recover by then, but it could take longer if iron ore falls further and lithium stays low.

In terms of dividends, my thoughts are we shouldn't expect any dividends from MIN in the next couple of years until their debt levels reduce substantially. It's not off the table completely, but it's rational to not count on any dividend income. So that means I can't hold them in my other portfolio outside of super either, because that portfolio exists primarily to provide an income stream, and I already hold one mistake in there - Cooper Energy (COE) - who I bought too early, and who I don't want to sell because a takeover offer could come from a larger energy (oil/gas) player at any time, and they have east coast gas demand tailwinds building that will drive them higher at some point, and I have no idea when. It's more about the narrative and market sentiment than the gas price with Cooper Energy, but I'm not trying to talk COE up - I shouldn't be holding them in that income portfolio, but it's a relatively small position and they're trading too low for me to sell them down here.

With MIN, likewise, IF I was still holding MinRes I would also be tempted to ride this out, now that they're down to $30, but I got out @ $54.03 IRL and at $52.79 here (sold the last of what I held), so having done that, my choice is now to wait until they have tailwinds again instead of headwinds and their share price is back in a sustained uptrend, and their SP trend is the exact opposite of that right now.

I have been warning about the downside through August, and they dropped from $54 down to $40 in August, and also last week when they were in the $30's - and they look like going below $30 now. I still maintain that they could likely be bought at lower levels, not because they're worth less, but because the market tends to overshoot, to both the upside and the downside, so MIN will likely be oversold well below what they're actually worth purely based on negative sentiment and the majority of market participants NOT wanting to hold them, and there would need to be a decent positive catalyst to reverse the current negative sentiment I would have thought.

However, for anybody with a decent investment horizon - say at least 5 years - but 10 is always better - then buying at current levels and even averaging down from here could be a great strategy, because when MIN DO have everything going their way once more, they'll likely be back at levels more than double where they are today. My point is that you have to have (a) the right investment timeframe, (b) use money you can safely leave tied up in MIN for that timeframe - so not need to cash out in the next couple of years at lower levels if that's where they go, and (c) you have to have the stomach for the volatility - i.e. you have to be prepared for them to go to $20, maybe even $15, and still be able to get a decent night's sleep, without taking too many pills.

I could have ticked all three of those boxes 5 years ago, but not now. Horses for courses. Everybody has their own circumstances and risk tolerances - and my risk appetite is fairly low/small right now.

Agreed, they are not going broke, and they will be worth more and trading at significantly higher levels in 5 to 10 years from now. For me though, I don't know how low they can go, or for how long, and I don't want that direct exposure to them during that time. Not at this point, given my own circumstances.

By the way, I may end up with indirect exposure to MIN through WLE, WAM Leaders LIC (my largest real-money position at this point in time) who can and do hold companies of MIN's size, and WLE are underweight financials currently and overweight materials (including resources/mining companies) compared to the ASX200, so they may well hold MIN, but I don't mind that possible indirect exposure because WLE are going to provide me with market leading fully franked dividends throughout the next few years regardless of what MIN do, and their exposure to MIN is not going to be overly significant because WLE are so diversified. Just explaining my position, FWIW. I'm not bearish MIN longer term, just shorter term.