Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 12 Sep 2024 15:01:29
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0419 GMT - NextDC's inclusion in the NAREIT Real Estate Index paved the way for the Australian data-center operator to raise new equity at an attractive price, Canaccord Genuity analysts say. They observe that the inclusion was the catalyst for an 8% rise in NextDC shares, allowing the ASX-listed company to raise equity at an 11% premium to its previous raise in April. They tell clients in a note that Blackstone's acquisition of rival operator AirTrunk has also helped raise the profile of the sector among investors. Canaccord Genuity has a buy rating and A$18.85 target price on NextDC shares, which are up 1.4% at A$17.09. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0407 GMT - News Corp could have to dig deep to maintain a majority stake in REA if the Australian property advertiser is to significantly improve its proposed offer for U.K. counterpart Rightmove, Goldman Sachs analysts say. They tell clients in a note that REA's proposed acquisition in its current form would dilute News Corp's stake in REA to 50.1% from 61.5%. They reckon that to maintain its holding at 50.1%, News Corp would have to contribute A$80 million of the A$159 million needed to raise the value of its proposal from GBP7.05/share to GBP7.25/share. Each 20-pence increase would require a similar contribution, they say. GS has a buy rating and a A$221.00 target price on REA shares, which are up 0.1% at A$198.20. News Corp owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0247 GMT - Uranium stocks jump in Sydney after Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow should consider restricting exports of the nuclear fuel. Russia is a top uranium producer and has nearly half the world's enrichment capacity. Paladin Energy is up 8.0% at A$9.69/share. Boss Energy is up 10% at A$2.87/share. Deep Yellow rises 9.7% to A$1.135/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0040 GMT - A2 Milk is doing well in a challenged market, says Morgan Stanley, but its stock looks fairly valued right now. MS starts A2 Milk at equal-weight with a A$5.90/share price target, highlighting a record of gaining market share and improving the quality of its earnings. Still, significant risks remain, analyst Julia M. de Sterke says. They include challenging conditions in China's infant milk formula market and the stability of A2 Milk's supply chain. "A de-rating post FY 2024 results has reset valuation multiples to levels that we believe capture the risks we see as evident in the business," MS says. A2 Milk is down 0.5% at A$5.61 today. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0036 GMT - Hotel Property Investments has rejected a takeover offer worth A$3.65/share from Charter Hall Retail REIT and Host-Plus, prompting Morgan Stanley to analyze various scenarios for a deal to proceed. It believes the transaction would cease to be EPS accretive for Charter Hall Retail REIT at A$4.15-A$4.25/share, or around 1.05X price to net tangible assets. And at the current offer price, Charter Hall Retail REIT's gearing would lift to 37.5%. "To bring gearing down to the mid-point of target (35-40%), Charter Hall Retail REIT would have to sell circa A$195 million of assets," analyst Simon Chan says. He adds that, superficially, it doesn't look like Charter Hall Retail REIT is being particularly opportunistic. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0027 GMT - Johns Lyng, which carries out insurance-related repair work, retains Morgan Stanley as a bull but the bank cautions that key inflection catalysts are some six months away. Johns Lyng's share price has dropped around 39% since its FY 2024 result in late August negatively reset expectations. MS reduces forecasts for Johns Lyng's Business-as-Usual and Catastrophe units to be in line with company guidance. That drives a 22%-24% cut to EPS in FY 2025-FY 2026. "Johns Lyng's current multiple is much more reflective of BAU earnings with very little Catastrophe now built into Morgan Stanley/consensus forecasts," analyst Chenny Wang says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2342 GMT - Prices for lithium-rich spodumene could rise as high as $1,000/metric ton near-term, versus spot around $730/ton, according to UBS analyst Levi Spry, after the bank's China lithium analyst Sky Han said CATL is suspending production at its Jiangxi lepidolite mine. The output cut would be positive, although the lithium industry needs to reduce supply further to balance a projected 2025 oversupply, says Spry. "Key will be how the broader China lepidolite supply story evolves," he says. Spry remains wary about additional Africa supply growth following a recent visit, "and we remind that it is the seaborne spodumene price (and not the GFEX) that will be crucial for marginal Australian producers (including those in ramp up)," he says. UBS remains underweight in lithium, with sell ratings on IGO, Liontown, Pilbara Minerals and Ganfeng. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2331 GMT - Adrad Holdings, which imports car parts among other businesses, is set for a much better FY 2025 after two events dragged down its result for the recently completed year, Bell Potter says. Adrad absorbed A$1.5 million of one-off costs due to a product upgrade program. Also, Adrad experienced delays to a customer project that weighed on revenue in its Heat Transfer Solutions division. "These two events also mean the outlook for FY 2025 is much better as the restart of deferred projects and early benefits from the product upgrade program should lead to reasonable revenue growth in HTS," analyst Chris Savage says. Bell Potter forecasts FY 2025 revenue of A$152 million, up 6% on a year ago, and Ebitda of A$20 million. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2322 GMT - Orica didn't provide much detail on underlying short-term market conditions during an investor tour of North America, but Jefferies says it's clear that some markets are facing cyclical headwinds as well as structural challenges. It's confident that issues facing the quarrying and construction sector should ease following the U.S. election, given the infrastructure funding already in place. However, low natural-gas prices are likely to mean coal remains challenged, analyst Richard Johnson says. Jefferies points out that U.S. coal production fell by some 3% in 2023 and is expected to fall by 10%-15% in 2024. "This can be seen in recent results from Arch and Peabody," the bank says. "Arch's 2Q thermal sales volumes fell circa 30% and Peabody circa 15%." Jefferies rates Orica a "buy." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0849 GMT - Rightmove's language when rejecting REA's takeover proposal implies this it wasn't an outright "no at any price," as the property portal said it carefully considered the proposal, AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould says in a note. The phrasing suggests it was a "not at the current proposed price," which may change if REA digs deeper, Mould says. The company is the U.K. market leader in its field and a unique asset on the London Stock Exchange, something shareholders won't let go of without proper compensation, with REA having to offer a lot more to get the deal done, Mould says. "Now comes the interesting part where we see if REA is serious in its pursuit for Rightmove, or whether it was simply trying its luck at a bargain price," he says. Shares are up 0.2% at 7.44 pence. (anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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