0120 GMT - Australian payments provider Tyro keeps its bull at Jefferies, where analysts lower their operating-expense forecasts for the next three fiscal years. They trim their forecast for FY 2025 by 6%, for FY 2026 by 5% and for FY 2027 by 7%, helping lift statutory Ebitda expectations for the periods by 3%, 13% and 18%, respectively. That's even taking into account a A$9 million cut to their FY 2025 revenue forecast on the expectation that a remediation payment from rival terminal provider Kounta will not repeat. Jefferies lifts its target price by 6.25% to A$1.70 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 1.9% at A$1.055. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0053 GMT - Brambles' medium-term earnings guidance extends the value proposition outlined by the global pallet giant back in 2021, Jefferies analysts write in a note. They tell clients that guidance for annual revenue growth of 4%-6% from FY 2026 to FY 2028 straddles the prior average analyst forecast of 5.1%. With annual Ebit expected to grow by a percentage in the high-single digits across the same period, Brambles should deliver total value creation of 10% including dividends. This is in-line with its FY 2021 target for FY 2023 onwards, they observe. Jefferies has a hold rating and a A$16.48 target price on the stock, which is down 0.1% at A$18.45. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0023 GMT - Macquarie analysts are wagering that Australian betting company Tabcorp could seek to sell its gaming services unit, which "may be a way to release capital for other needs," they say. They tell clients in a note that Tabcorp's gaming services business, which monitors slot machines and has a 67% market share, has no synergies with its main wagering and media unit. They add that there may be opportunities for Tabcorp to acquire or extend monitoring licenses, maximizing the unit's value under a sale. The Macquarie analysts figure the gaming services business is worth A$610 million. But they retain a neutral rating on Tabcorp shares, noting recent underperformance at the company. (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)

0008 GMT - Jefferies analysts David Stanton and Vanessa Thomson say they will be watching whether a combination flu and Covid vaccine from key CSL competitor Moderna gains traction. Moderna recently said it wouldn't focus on getting accelerated approval for a single-shot mRNA flu vaccine, and would instead look to a combination flu and Covid mRNA vaccine for patients over 50 years old. More competition in the vaccine space could be a threat to CSL, given that its Seqirus flu-vaccine unit is expected to be about 13% of CSL's revenue this FY. The Jefferies analysts point out that CSL is also looking to advance its vaccine portfolio: it is developing an adjuvanted cell culture flu vaccine for older patients, and has a license agreement with Arcturus Therapeutics for self-amplifying mRNA technology. (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)

2351 GMT - With interest-rates falling and growth slowing, cloud-accounting software provider Xero is Macquarie analysts' preferred pick among Australia-listed tech stocks. They tell clients in a note that the stock's current valuation suggests that market expectations for margin expansion are more conservative than at Macquarie. They point out that Xero has historically grown annual monthly recurring revenue by more than 20%, but reckon that the share price implies just 11.2% growth. Xero heads their selection of more defensive tech picks, with Technology One and WiseTech Global also in their thinking. Macquarie has an outperform rating and A$184.40 target price on the stock, which is at A$144.27 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2328 GMT - Citi analyst Siraj Ahmed would like to see Australian real-estate advertiser REA Group paying no more than a 40% takeover premium for U.K. counterpart Rightmove. REA shares have slipped almost 9% since it disclosed its interest in Rightmove, and Ahmed tells clients in a note that, with REA proposing to pay partly in shares, the math on the accretive benefits of any acquisition gets tougher as the stock drifts lower. Assuming 5% cost synergies, Ahmed sees 11% EPS accretion at a 40% premium, which is as far as REA should go in his view. Citi has a "buy" rating and a A$230.00 target price on REA shares, which are at A$199.36 ahead of the open. REA is 61% owned by News Corp, which owns Dow Jones & Co., the publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2319 GMT - Brambles' medium-term guidance leaves Jarden analysts thinking that the global pallet giant's capital expenditure could be significantly higher than expected by fiscal 2028. Using the midpoint of Brambles' guidance for sustainable pooling capex at 15%-17% of annual sales and for non-pooling capex of US$200 million-US$300 million leaves the Jarden analysts contemplating total fiscal 2028 capex of US$1.54 billion. This sits 40% higher than their prior forecasts and about 11% of the average analyst forecast. Jarden has a last-published "overweight" rating and a A$17.90 target price on the stock, which is at A$18.47 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2307 GMT - Goldman Sachs analyst Andrew Lyons thinks that the biggest driver of Commonwealth Bank's outperformance over the past five years is its lower implied cost of equity. GS has had a sell rating on the stock for more than five years, over which time its total shareholder return has outperformed its domestic peers by 57%. Lyons tells clients in a note that he thinks that Commonwealth's cost of equity has fallen by more than 1% more than that of its peers, to less than 7%. This accounts for about two thirds of the outperformance, he reckons. GS lifts its target price by 5.9%, to A$100.35. The stock, which has hit a series of records this year, is at A$142.96 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2257 GMT - Brickworks looks set to report a 12% decline in annual earnings from its Australian building-materials business, although the fall could be even more, Ord Minnett analyst James Casey says. He tells clients in a note that fiscal 2024, which for Brickworks was the 12 months through July, was challenging for the Australia-listed company. He points to the deterioration in apartment building activity in Australia and subdued non-residential construction in North America, where he sees Brickworks reporting flat Ebit. Again, risks are tilted to the downside, Casey adds. Ord Minnett cuts its target price by 6.9% to A$27.00 and keeps a hold rating on the stock, which is at A$25.57 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2243 GMT - A bounce in shares of miner Mineral Resources this week, following a business update, is a "very strong response to a well-guided capital release, and speculation of a modest quantity of marginal Chinese lithium production suspension," says Bell Potter analyst Bradley Watson. Mineral Resources is up 24% this week, while it remains down 46% year to date. The weakness in the stock has been driven by its net-debt level, and weak commodity prices and sentiment, Watson says. Mineral Resources closed at A$38.02/share Thursday. Bell Potter has a buy rating and A$66.00 target on the stock. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires