0430 GMT - Australia's major banks are sitting on sufficient excess capital to warrant expectations of a new round of buybacks, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. They tell clients in a note that, even after taking into account about A$3.6 billion of current on-market buybacks still to be completed, the banks will hold A$10.5 billion more capital at the end of fiscal 2024 than required to hit the top end of their capital target ranges. The MS analysts expect A$8.5 billion more in buybacks to be announced between now and the end of 2026. This is on top of their forecast of 7% average dividend growth over fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0429 GMT - Could a new round of energy M&A be coming to the Perth Basin of Western Australia, ponders Euroz Hartleys analyst Declan Bonnick. Beach Energy and Mitsui, partners in the Waitsia JV, are likely interested in more natural gas, given recent reserves downgrades and some poor exploration results, Euroz Hartleys says. "Hancock has shown their interest in the basin and the WA domestic gas market, with a hefty balance sheet to be able to make further acquisitions," such as consolidating ownership of the West Erregulla field, Euroz Hartleys says. Also, major gas users like Wesfarmers have been hit by high gas prices in a tightly balanced market, it adds. They could act pre-emptively to protect margins of products such as ammonia as the local gas market nears a supply shortage around the end of the decade. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0422 GMT - National Australia Bank gets a new bull at Morgan Stanley, where analysts admit they've been too cautious on major Australian banks since the start of they year. They reckon it's hard to justify current bank valuations on their growth and return profiles, but tell clients in a note that investors have viewed them as safe havens amid macro uncertainty. In short, they say companies selling mortgages and deposits have fared better than those selling iron ore or oil and gas. They reckon that NAB's growing track record of consistent execution will support its premium trading multiples, and forecast a 5% rise in fiscal 2025 cash EPS. MS raises its target price 11% to A$38.00 and lifts its recommendation to overweight from equal-weight. Shares are up 0.9% at A$39.215. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0201 GMT - Gold miner Newmont could make as much as US$4 billion from asset sales over the coming year, a potential boost to capital returns, according to UBS analyst Levi Spry. Newmont says it's now targeting at least US$2 billion in gross proceeds from planned sales, versus a prior target of US$2 billion from both selling mines and rescheduling developments. "Post divestments, NEM is set to have one of the best portfolios in the industry consisting of predominantly large long-life assets in low risk jurisdictions and attractive brownfield growth projects," says Spry. UBS raises its target on Newmont's Australian stock to A$100 from A$75 and reiterates a buy rating. Newmont is up 0.8% at A$78.86/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0021 GMT - Xero's acquisition of Syft Analytics should improve the insights that the cloud-accounting provider can offer customers, and ultimately help it charge higher prices, Wilsons analysts say in a note. They tell clients that moderating subscriber growth is making Xero incrementally more reliant on price rises to maintain high double-digit top-line growth. Improving insights could support this, with Wilsons analysts pointing out that Xero management spoke earlier this year on such data's importance to customers. Wilsons has a A$131.63 target price and a market-weight rating on the stock, which is down 0.1% at A$147.90. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0001 GMT - Austal's US$450 million contract to expand its Alabama shipyard looks significant for the Australian shipmaker, although more detail is needed to determine its precise impacts, Bell Potter analyst Daniel Laing says in a note. Laing sees the contract diversifying Austal's shipbuilding operations, driving long-term revenue growth and reinforcing its position as a key contributor to the U.S. naval industrial base. He raises his earnings multiples and reduces the weighted-average cost of capital in his discounted-cashflow valuation, but doesn't include the contract in his estimates due to a lack of clarity on income recognition and costs. Bell Potter raises its target price 15% to A$3.15 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is at A$2.71 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2359 GMT - New Hope appears to have been sold off unnecessarily of late amid steel-market bearishness, says Morgans analyst Tom Sartor, who upgrades the coal miner's stock to add from hold. Morgans's target on New Hope is pared to A$5.20 from A$5.45 following a slide in the stock that has it trading 16% lower year-to-date. "We do think the stock has been unfairly swept up by bearishness amid steelmaking exposures (iron ore/met coal prices and producers) to see it now trade at a material discount to our NPV for the first time since mid-2023," says Sartor. New Hope is now genuinely cheap, he says, adding: "These pricing dynamics, along with NHC's defensive attributes and broader hard-asset base make it better suited to buy and hold/value investors." New Hope ended Tuesday at A$4.32/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2356 GMT - Origin Energy gets a new bull in Macquarie as coal prices back-pedal. While forward electricity prices are still likely to be higher in FY 2026, the cost of coal is headed back toward FY 2024 levels, it says. Macquarie says market pricing points to coal costs coming back to A$125/ton, which suggests A$140 million-A$150 million of extra income. "It is also plausible to expect Origin to increase generation as the coal price falls," Macquarie says. It upgrades Origin to outperform from neutral, citing a 6% yield, a price-to-earnings multiple at the lower part of its historical range, and a brighter outlook for profits. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2344 GMT - Citi analyst Sam Teeger sees mixed signals for Treasury Wine Estates in Nielsen's latest U.S. wine sales data. Treasury's Americas sales for the four weeks through Sept. 7 were down 3% due to lower pricing, which Teeger points out is an improvement on the two prior four-week periods. He tells clients in a note that this could point to the emergence of the stability across Treasury's global brand portfolio factored into the Australian producer's fiscal 2025 earnings guidance. Less positively, Teeger says that slowing sales of Treasury's DAOU brand could suggest that its luxury portfolio is facing more headwinds than previously anticipated. Citi has a neutral rating and A$12.97 target price on the stock, which is at A$11.23 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2317 GMT - While New Hope's strong final dividend gave an immediate boost to its share price, Macquarie analysts pare their target on the coal miner's stock after a miss on profits and lower than expected free cash flow. The 6% miss to the Street's profit expectations is due to higher depreciation and amortization than analysts had anticipated. The Macquarie analysts cut their target on New Hope by 2%, to A$4.20/share, and keep a "neutral" rating. The next known catalyst for New Hope's stock is an update on the New Acland court hearing, which could happen as early as 1H 2025, the analysts say. A "positive decision would allow NHC to remove overburden and coal from Manning Vale West pit." New Hope rose 1.7% Tuesday, to A$4.32/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2258 GMT - Bell Potter is hungry for shares in Select Harvests, taking a view that consensus earnings forecasts look light given almond prices have rallied following the USDA's crop forecast in July. "We would see AUD values at A$8.00-8.50/kg, which is consistent with our A$8.33/kg forecast in FY 2025," says analyst Jonathan Snape. Bell Potter highlights that its FY 2025 Ebitda estimate is some 17% above Visible Alpha consensus forecasts. "To this end we see consensus forecast as likely to be reevaluated upwards as we approach the FY 2024 results in November and upgrade our rating from Hold to Buy," the bank adds. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2248 GMT - Incitec Pivot sees scope for consolidation in the global explosives industry, Goldman Sachs analysts say following the ASX-listed company's investor day briefing. The company cited South Africa as an inorganic opportunity, they say. "However, delivery against the transformation agenda was cited as a ticket to participation in any market consolidation," say the Goldman Sachs analysts. Goldman has a buy rating and A$3.35 target on Incitec, which rose 2.0% Tuesday to A$3.10/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2246 GMT - Wealth manager AMP has likely turned a corner with stable platform margins and improving flows, says Citi, acknowledging its buy call on the stock isn't a consensus view. "There seems cause for hope AMP's award-wining retirement products could see flows further improve," Citi says. It believes AMP's cost savings program is on track and contends that a consistent dividend policy shouldn't be far away once the company's share buyback ends. "While the Bank remains an issue for many, profit here seems to have stabilized and its new Engine solution is on track for launch in FY 2025," Citi says. It has a A$1.45/share price target on AMP, which ended Tuesday at A$1.325. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

2240 GMT - Winsome Resources has signaled capex for its Adina spodumene project in Canada using the nearby Renard plant could be US$292 million, which looks very attractive to Euroz Hartleys. Winsome has an option to buy the Renard operation, located some 37 miles south of Adina, and analyst Trent Barnett says that is a big positive for production. "Even after including the cost to acquire Renard (C$52 million), this makes the project capital light versus peers," Euroz Hartleys says. "Now that there is a study released, we expect Winsome can move quickly to involve potential partners and offtakes." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2234 GMT - Junior miners are likely to remain hesitant about exploration for at least another 12 months, reckons Citi, with implications for Imdex. That's because small miners are a long way from being able to deploy capital, says Citi, noting that raisings in July and August were some 25% below the monthly averages of 2023 and 2022. Analyst William Park says soft exploration to begin FY 2025, combined with lingering concerns around volatility in junior raisings, could test Imdex's relative resilience compared to the market. "Soft volumes flagged by Imdex are likely to remain unchanged but downside could reside in pricing momentum," Citi says. It thinks the risk of an earnings downgrade at Imdex's annual shareholder meeting next month is elevated and retains a sell call on the stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires