Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 24 Sep 2024 15:00:06
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0040 GMT - Any catalyst for the end of Australian bank stocks' current spell of outperformance will become apparent after the fact, Jefferies analysts reckon. They write in a note that banks are unquestionably expensive at current levels despite what they call at best somber earnings growth. They see pressure on asset and liability spreads coupled with softer volumes hitting the banks at the same time as embedded inflation in operating expenses and creeping bad debts. They are closer to moving underweight on banks and overweight on resources, pointing out that Fed easing and stabilizing sentiment toward China could help the latter sector rebound. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0037 GMT - Asia-based investors are mostly cautious on the outlook for mining stocks, Citi analyst Ephrem Ravi says, citing meetings with roughly 150 investors across 70 firms in the region. Generalist investors are concerned about Chinese demand, given they typically bet on the sector as a China proxy, he says. For the sector specialists, caution is rooted in worries that miners' capital discipline "appears to be fraying at the edges." Ravi says investors are almost universally cautious on iron ore in the medium term, although some specialists are upbeat on the prospect of a 4Q rally. "Copper is still liked and most would be buyers at current levels but the pure-plays are seen as expensive," he adds. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0028 GMT - Rightmove directors can leverage the impending deadline a firm takeover offer to pressure REA Group into a more compelling proposal, Bell Potter analyst Michael Ardrey reckons. Australian property advertiser REA has until Sept. 30 to make a firm offer and Ardrey thinks that Rightmove could try to extract a higher cash component than that currently on the table. The London-listed group is considering REA's third proposal, which values it at about 6.1 billion pounds but is about 55% share-based. Bell Potter has a buy rating and A$226.00 target price on REA shares, which are up 0.7% at A$195.37. REA Group is controlled by News Corp, which owns Dow Jones & Co., the publisher of Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0002 GMT - A sales hit from unhappy consumers looks like the key risk to supermarkets Woolworths and Coles from the Australian consumer watchdog's allegations of misleading pricing, Goldman Sachs analysts tell clients in a note. They say that they have no view on the merit of the watchdog's legal proceedings and stress that it is too early to assess potential penalties. The key risk in their eyes is a hit to sales related to negative consumer sentiment. Both supermarket chains are accused of misleading customers by hiking product prices for a short period before discounting them to a price higher than, or the same as, the price prior to the spike. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2353 GMT - Webjet's revenue margins are likely to remain under pressure through FY 2030, Macquarie analysts say. They reckon that Webjet's focus on volume growth in lower-margin regions, direct sales by hotels, reduced take rates from existing customers and the rise of exclusive contracts will all weigh on margins at the corporate travel-services provider. The Macquarie analysts anticipate revenue margin moderating from 7.2% in FY 2025 to 7.0% in FY 2030, compared with 8.2% in FY 2024. Its target price falls 12.5% to A$7.63 on the demerger of Webjet's consumer business. Macquarie keeps a neutral rating on the stock, which is at A$7.35 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2341 GMT - Macquarie analysts remain cautious toward IDP Education, saying it is impossible to forecast the risk that global migration policies present to the student-placement operator. Pointing to Canada's decision to issue 2026 study permits at 2025 levels, they think that regulatory headwinds could be easing and see IDP being well placed for an eventual recovery in volumes after it grew share in a challenging market. However, analysts elsewhere are still too optimistic and Macquarie sees potential for downgraded forecasts. Macquarie keeps a neutral rating and A$16.00 target price on the stock, which is at A$15.36 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2335 GMT - A trip to Patriot Battery Metals' Shaakichiuwaanaan lithium project in Quebec helped Citi analyst Kate McCutcheon appreciate the scale and size of the resource there, she says. "The spodumene is very 'clean'" and could be "one of the largest lithium resources globally," says McCutcheon. The infrastructure in the nearby area, including roads and an airstrip, was also impressive, she says. Citi has a buy/high risk rating on Patriot, with a A$0.75 target. Patriot ended Monday at A$0.35/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2332 GMT - Webjet keeps its bull at RBC Capital Markets following the demerger of its consumer business, with earnings growth expectations justifying its elevated valuation multiple. RBC's analysts tell clients in a note that the corporate travel-services provider is aiming to grow at twice the pace of the overall market through FY 2030. They point to management's strong track record of outpacing the market, and see the stock's elevated multiple relative to Australian travel peers as appropriate. The removal of the consumer business introduces some additional standalone costs, but RBC maintains its outperform rating on the stock. Its target price falls 15% to A$8.50. Shares are at A$7.35 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2315 GMT -- Imdex faces headwinds from muted minerals exploration spending, which is down in 1Q FY2025 from quarter-prior levels, says Citi analyst William Park in a note. "With juniors nowhere in sight, meaningful recovery in exploration is more like a FY26 story," Park says. He trims Citi's target on Imdex to A$1.95/share from A$2.00/share, and keeps a sell rating. Park forecasts A$126 million of Ebitda for Imdex in FY2025, 15% below Visible Alpha consensus. "The market already appreciates that we are at the bottom, but we simply question how patient is the market willing to remain if recovery continues to be protracted," he says. Imdex closed Monday at A$2.12/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com)

0933 GMT - Although REA Group's latest 770 pence bid for Rightmove is a step in the right direction it is unlikely to dissuade the U.K. property portal's board as shareholders are more likely to show interest in bids starting with eight, not seven, AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould says in a note. The Australian company making three bids shows it is serious but Rightmove refusing to be bought on the cheap would signal that it isn't for sale at any price, Mould says. "Rightmove fighting off REA might show to investors that not only is there good value on offer, but that certain companies might still be around to generate returns over the long term and not simply be a 'blink and you'll miss it' opportunity," he says. REA Group is controlled by News Corp, which owns Dow Jones & Co., the publisher of Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. Shares are up 2.2% at 689.20 pence. (anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)

0841 GMT - REA Group's latest bid for U.K. property portal Rightmove, which consists of 44% cash and 56% scrip in REA, is still seen as insufficient, Panmure Liberum analyst Sean Kealy says in a note. The 770 pence a share bid emphasizes the Australian company doesn't have the financial resources to significantly improve the offer after its previous 750 pence a share bid was rejected, Kealy says. It seems REA wishes to acquire Rightmove with little in the way of operational synergies, giving it little flexibility to justify a premium which would incentivize long-term investors to sell, Kealy says. "We continue to see little incentive for shareholders to sell, as we believe both earnings growth acceleration and a re-rating will come," he says. Shares are up 2.3% at 689.80 pence.(anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)

0824 GMT - Australia's REA Group may have to further sweeten its bid for Rightmove to make headway after making a third proposal for the U.K. property portal, Shore Capital analyst Roddy Davidson says in a note. REA has said Rightmove's board hasn't engaged in substantive contact around its potential offers, with analysts keeping an open mind over the potential benefits to Rightmove's shareholders stemming from becoming part of a larger international group. Rightmove is now in a more challenging stage regarding the ease with which it can develop new revenue opportunities and achieve price inflation, Davidson says. "Given its persistence and the valuation now effectively in play, we believe that it is incumbent on Righmove's board to engage in formal communication on behalf of its shareholders," Davidson says. Shares are up 2.9% at 693.80 pence.(anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)

0713 GMT - REA Group has changed its tone and could, henceforth, become more aggressive in its attempt to acquire online property portal Rightmove, Jefferies analysts say in a note. The Australian company has become more firm in its approach and a further rejection by its U.K. peer may see the company foregoing a recommended offer and go hostile instead, Jefferies says. REA has highlighted for the first time the lack of any sustained upward momentum for two years in its shares despite a continuing share buyback program and a revised strategy, Jefferies says. "In our view, this latest approach may be the beginning of the endgame," the analysts say. Rightmove shares are up 3.5% at 698.20 pence.(anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

0644 GMT - Rightmove is expected to formally reject REA Group's latest bid for the U.K. property website, which is now offering an implied value of 7.70 pounds a share, up from 7.49 pounds previously, XTB analyst Kathleen Brooks says in a note. REA's improved offer now values its peer's equity at 6.1 billion pounds. Rightmove's shares are up by more than 20% on the back of the Australian company's offer, and some volatility is expected in the share price on the back of this news, she says. "It is unknown if REA will continue to bid for the company since it has already revised one offer higher," Brooks says. (anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)

0558 GMT - The makers of mining equipment appear to be ending a market upcycle, underpinned by rising mine output, say Jefferies analysts in a note. "The recent surge in gold [and] copper prices should fuel an aftermarket recovery amongst mining equipment players as mineral production accelerates," the analysts say. "This is key for mining equipment makers as they derive 65% plus of their revenues and a higher proportion of their earnings from the aftermarket." Globally, Jefferies's top picks among mining equipment stocks are Epiroc and Weir. It has buy ratings on both. It also initiates coverage of FLSmidth at buy and Metso at hold. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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