Pinned straw:
@Remorhaz thanks for posting the summary.
I know I am not thinking about this one in the "right" way, but with my base valuation of $22/share for the 3-product diagnostic business, this is precisely where UBS has got to for Precision Medicine. (Just goes to show, two people can be precisely wrong in the same way!)
With TLX591 valued at $6/share, they are only ascribing $2 to the rest of therapeutics and $1 to TMS. It is interesting to see that breakdown, as it one level of further sophistication than I had.
Did UBS provide further detail on the assumptions that got them to $6 for TLX591? Assuming it is risked, then a positive readout of ProstACT GLOBAL in H1 2025 (that CY 2025) would be a big SP catalyst (>$10+). I wonder what risking they are carrying for it? I haven't gotten far enough into the clinical details to have my own view.
It is also interesting to note that they have upped the ultimate potential of Zircaix to $1bn sales + $1.5bn upside sales. My numbers for Zircaix get to $0.91m by 2030, which also assumes wide application beyond kidney cancer. For these I've just used the JD Cowan profile, that has Zircaix continuing to grow to reach $1.5bn by 2035, so it sounds as if UBS are even more bullish on that prodict.
My cunning plan, is to build my position based on the likely more modest SP impact of positive newsflow around Zircaix BLA later this year, as well as Pixclara getting to NDA submission. The idea is then to be positioned for the riskier "upside" of the therapeutics, knowing that there is a robust business in place for the diagnostics as well as an increasingly material radiopharmacy manufactucting/distribution business.
Still a huge amount to learn here, but given MY biggest risk is my lack of knowledge, I've happy to hold a modest RL position.
Disc: Held RL (2.9%) and SM