Forum Topics MIN MIN Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Last edited 2 months ago

This absolute ball-tearer of a week has obliterated the steep downtrend that formed in the months preceding it.

It is hard to be bearish on technical grounds now (save for a healthy pullback or consolidation near-term), and with the fundamentals set to improve over the next couple of years, the set up still looks good for accumulation for those with a long-term view.

Bear77
Added 2 months ago

Yeah, it's looking like a rotation again...

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Banks down, resources up.

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Note the ETFs for overseas markets making new 12-month highs today. The ASX made a new all-time high as well of course.

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WTC and PME keep on rising despite their own lofty valuations. Goldies hitting new 12-month highs today included EVN, RSG, FFM, BC8, AUC, RND and MEK.

Copper stock SFR made a new twelve month high also, plus Alcoa (AAI) and Lynas (LYC), Australia's largest pure-plays in bauxite / alumina / aluminium and rare earth oxides respectively.

SGR the biggest loser today of course (-44.44%) after the casino group emerged from their 4-week trading suspension (since late August) with what appeared to be nothing but more bad news. Not good for WLE, who hold them (WLE is my largest real-money position), but the market had already factored in the discount to their NTA and the WLE share price closed flat today. Matt and John at WLE have admitted they shouldn't have bought Star last year so they're busy trying to make that lost money up with other better choices. That's the trouble with buying shares or units in LICs/LITs, managed funds, or ETFs - you are outsourcing the stock-picking to others (to the broader market in the case of an index tracking ETF) - so you don't get to avoid that indirect exposure to companies that you wouldn't personally buy shares in yourself - like casinos in my case. Swings and roundabouts however, as WLE also hold MIN (they confirmed that during Q&A at their last webinar when MIN were in the mid $30s that WLE were building a position again) and I don't own any MIN directly, so I do get some minor indirect exposure to their spectacular rebound.

Better than nothing...

Speaking of which, look at who tops the next table:

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The top six performers today across Australia's 50 largest companies are ALL miners, and another two (JHX and AMC) of the top 10 are not miners but are nonetheless still included in the Materials sector (that also includes all of our miners).

Half of the top 10 performers from the next 50 (i.e. numbers 50-100 of the ASX100) were also miners (IGO, LTM, CSC, WHC and YAL) and another one is a metals and minerals testing company (ALS). With energy sector stocks being smashed lately it's interesting to see Ampol in that list on the bottom left above.

And here's the final table - all from MarcusToday.com.au

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More of a mixed bag there. A few of the Strawman community's favourite biotechs made some positive moves today, along with a few lithium and smaller iron ore miners and other miners who have been smashed for most of the year, so many are coming off relatively low bases now.

But yeah, congrats to those who took the plunge into MIN in the low to mid $30s (or just below $30 if you were super-sharp) - I think it's fair to say they may have broken their downtrend...

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edgescape
Added 2 months ago

@Bear77 @thunderhead

Probably worth paying attention to the USDCHN. CHN should fall against the USD (or we should get more CHN for USD). But it's not really happening in the top chart

China is probably funding their stimulus by selling off their reserves and keeping the Yuan stable.

Got to be more to this story. But don't really have time to comment further when I need to look at other stuff

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Aaronfzr
Added 2 months ago

I'm sure a decent part of the recent reversal was the short sellers covering their positions, but those hoping to short MIN were always on a hiding to nothing. The balance sheet looks bad at first glance, but get underneath the hood and it isn't really that bad, and the runway to a potential capital raise is actually very long

  • The now-accomplished sale of the haul road takes some pressure off the BS
  • Debt repayments are years down the road
  • c) Services income covering interest payments


Having said that, I think sustainably good returns are probably a couple of years away. MIN will remain vulnerable to bad news, or even just unimpressively neutral news - like Chinese stimulus not quite doing much at all. And with years' of housing stock on the market, we need to see evidence of a Chinese economy diversifying away from property and deploying metals into other industries

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