Forum Topics Gold as an investment
Bear77
Added a month ago

Monday 21st October 2024:

Here's what the physical gold ETPs did on the ASX today:

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Small rises. What about our Aussie Gold Sector?

Well, a little more enthusiasm than in physical gold I would say:

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Those top 19 there had share prices that rose by between 5% and 115% - just today!

I think it's fair to say that gold stocks are running.

The one that rose +115% was Yandal Resources - on the back of this announcement: RC drilling returns 78m @1.2g/t from New England Granite

Here's a snapshot of the first page of that announcement:

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Really? 1.2 g/tonne? And the share price more than doubled? OK, whatever floats your boat...

That's not exactly high grade gold, and YRL have a history of suggesting they've found something big but then as it turns out what they usually found was uneconomic to mine - i.e. the costs would be too high for them to actually make any money. Perhaps this time is different. Some of the most dangerous words in investing.

But sometimes OK when purely speculating.

No, I don't hold YRL.

It was a decent day on the market except for WTC and MIN, and gold led the charge:

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MinRes down -13.76% wasn't enough to drag resources, materials, or metals & mining into the red, but the -14.56% drop in the Wisetech share price was plenty enough to put the Aussie IT sector firmly in the red today, because WTC is such a large part of our tiny IT sector.

Here are my Top 7 current favourite Aussie Goldies:

  1. NST, Northern Star Resources, currently my third largest real life position, and second largest gold producer position. When the doubling of KCGM (Super Pit) production is completed in a couple of years they're going to be outstanding!
  2. GMD, Genesis Minerals, currently my 5th largest real life position. Exciting future, but a bit of that is already priced in clearly.
  3. RMS, Ramelius Resources is currently the largest position in my SMSF and also my largest gold producer holding in my other main RL portfolio. They looked underpriced at $1.90 to $1.93, which is what I paid for them in both portfolios a couple of months ago, and they're now at $2.48 and their graph looks... Nice!  Love their 17.9% ownership of Spartan (SPR) also - Spartan just keep going up; their one year graph is all bottom left to top right.
  4. EMR, Emerald Resources is currently the third largest position in my SMSF. Successful already in Cambodia and now developing a mine in WA. Excellent management.
  5. PRU, Perseus Mining is the 6th largest position in my SMSF and is my exception to my never-buy-West-African-gold-miners rule - because they are so good at developing and running gold mines over there, including maintaining good relationships with the governments of the countries in which they operate. I did briefly hold some WAF there too, but came to my senses quite quickly and sold them. PRU have an excellent M&A record, and their acquisition of OreCorp was another good buy. They have a lot of projects on the go actually. PRU recently acquired 19.9% of Predictive Discovery Limited (ASX:PDI). Have a look at Perseus' results announcement for FY24: 85600261474a43deed653a17afa0cddbe8bcda.png
  6. They have an active share buyback, pay dividends, have US$587.0 million of cash and bullion and zero debt, multiple producing mines spitting off cash, plus multiple development projects at various stages, and a rising share price, so not much NOT to like, except of course where they operate. Imagine the multiple they might be trading on if their mines were in WA instead of West Africa!
  7. Evolution Mining (EVN), not a pure play gold company but a gold/copper producer - they produce far more copper than gold at Ernest Henry and Northparkes, but their other 4 mines are gold mines, and Cowal is one of the best gold mines in Australia. I was steering clear of them, but I've warmed to them again lately because I'm bullish on copper now, so EVN ticks both the gold and the copper box for me; The ASX's main pure-play copper company, Sandfire (SFR) looks too expensive to me, but EVN didn't one week ago when I bought them at $4.69/share. A week later they're $5.30/share. EVN's latest report is good - their September quarterly report I'm talking about - even Red Lake in Canada finally went cashflow positive! Jake Klein might just be back!
  8. Capricorn Metals (CMM) is my seventh fave, although it says "8" there on the left - probably because "5" and "6" are both PRU. CMM don't look cheap up here, so I'm not holding them, except for a small Strawman.com virtual portfolio position, but damn they've got good management who can deliver profitable gold mines. And they're priced for that too.


The second largest position in my SMSF - since last week is now ETPMPM - yeah the ticker code is 6 letters long, I don't have a stutter - it's an ETP rather than an ETF (exchange traded product, not fund) because it holds physical metal rather than company stocks. It's the GLOBAL X PHYSICAL PRECIOUS METAL BASKET - here's the deets:

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I like that exposure at this point in time and the fees at less than half of 1% (0.44%) p.a. (management cost) are very low. I tried to add them here to my SM portfolio but while the system recognises the ticker code there is no pricing so it's one of those ETPs that S&P don't provide pricing for, so we can't buy or sell it here on Strawman.

No matter - I have over $40K of them in my SMSF now. I added them at $241.912 per unit last week, and they closed today at $253.87 so up +4.94% in a week - not the spectacular movements we're seeing in many gold producers, but good enough, and it gives me some exposure to silver and PGMs too.

Lastly - for tonight - a friend asked me via email recently what I thought of Westgold (WGX) - and here was the answer I gave him earlier tonight:

I've regularly looked at Westgold and I do like them more now than I did years ago when they were spun out of (demerged from) Metals X when Metals X wanted to concentrate on copper and tin (that's why their WGX code ends in an X by the way). I do NOT like their M&A discipline - I believe they have regularly overpaid for assets, which seems more about empire building than shareholder returns - similar to that muppet Luke Tonkin over at Vault Minerals (VAU) - who did the same thing when he was running Silver Lake (SLR), then did that reverse takeover of Red 5 (RED), then changed their name to Vault Minerals and gave himself a payrise.  WGX is a better company than VAU in my opinion, but their costs are too high and none of their mines are outstanding; nor is their management - some questionable capital allocation decisions over the past few years - just like SLR. 

I do like Karora, WGX's latest acquisition, particularly the high-grade Beta Hunt gold mine that came with Karora where Bill Beament's Develop Global (DVP) are doing the underground mining for them, however I believe WGX came over the top of RMS and overpaid for Karora and I liked RMS' M&A discipline to let that one through to the keeper and keep their powder dry for something else. WGX obviously got bigger from the acquisition - they called it a merger, but WGX acquired Karora - and now WGX is dual listed - on the ASX and TSX - and they also did it just in time to get themselves added to the ASX200 index in the September rebalance. So they managed to tick all the boxes that they wanted to, but their SP went from $3 down to $2.50, so the market wasn't overly impressed with the price they paid.  

However, I note WGX have shot back up to $3.26/share during the last fortnight - they've gone vertical! So all is forgiven? Maybe. I still don't think they're one of Australia's best goldies tho - let's see how they look once the Karora assets are bedded down and they get a few quarterly reports under their belt as this new and larger company. We'll get a good idea then if Wayne Bramwell is a strategically gifted visionary or has just been feathering his own nest in terms of increased remuneration and bonuses for growing the company's size. 

The quick version is that WGX often look cheap on paper, when compared to their peers, but they never live up to their apparent potential, so they do not have any sort of management premium in the share price because they have sub-par management.

In My Opinion.

Plenty of great Australian gold companies to choose from, and a few duds as well.

If you can't make a shipload of cash for your shareholders as a gold miner with these gold prices, then you're probably in the wrong business.

Gold in US Dollars:

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And now Gold in Australian Dollars:

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The spot gold price is currently at A$4,088.04/oz

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A sea of Green! And it was allllll Yellow!

Green and Gold, the colours of Australia!

And this one's just for you @Strawman - 8026f0a3871817fe602da6f5ef42d027f987e3.png

More a comment on property prices than on gold IMO... [will he take the bait?]

But that 2024 home would be decent!

14

lowway
Added a month ago

Brilliantly comprehensive as ever @Bear77. Now, in an effort to pre-empt @Strawman response....."if only wages were linked to gold"

Personally, I only hold Newmont IRL after buying some more Newcrest during the early pandemic days. I did buy Victory Metals (VTM) originally as a speccie gold play just after they floated as Victory Gold, but then they discovered rare earth elements and have run with that ever since. I wonder how long before they start mentioning gold again in dispatches.

6

Strawman
Added a month ago

You know I will take the bait @Bear77 :)

However.. I'm not going to disagree! Gold has always been a great store of value, as evidenced by the image you shared.

Just to flesh it out a bit:

That bar looks like it's about 1kg, or 32 troy ounces.

Gold is worth around A$4k/troy ounce. So 10 x 1kg bars of gold is today ~$1.28m. Not far off the median Aussie house price in 2024. So that tracks with what the image shows.

In 1929, Gold was set at US$20.67/ounce (pegged at that level in the US due to the gold standard), so apply today's FX rate and accounting for the 1743% in cummulative inflation, that's ~A$570/ounce. So 10 x 1kg bars would have been worth A$182,400

It's hard to find reliable data for average Aussie house prices in 1929, but in today's dollars one estimate I found gave a figure of $200k in today's dollars. So that tracks too -- although these calculations are very rough and it's questionable how reliable the data is.

But here's the thing, in real terms, based on the assumptions i've used above, you get a real CAGR of ~2% over the period. So, as an investment, the rate of return is pretty awful. But if store of value is all you care about, it's certainly done that and more.

Eventually, I expect BTC to perform similarly over very long periods of time.

13

Bear77
Added 4 weeks ago

Thanks @lowway - all the best with VTM, you gotta watch those small speccy companies that keep changing their business model or focus to align with what they think will be the next big thing, i.e. where they can attract the most investor dollars, in their opinion. I do like a company that sticks to its knitting except when their business model is clearly busted - and then of course I want them to make radical changes - but not every time a new metal or mineral looks to have a rising price.

Great response @Strawman - agree with all of that except for BTC - but let's not go there.

Have a look at today's sector moves (Tuesday 22-Oct-2024):

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Gold the least-worst, so outperforming again; that's outperformance on a positive day for the market (yesterday) and then outperforming on a negative day for the market (today), so IMO the bull case for gold is increasing along with the gold price.

Interestingly IT was the worst sector yesterday - due to WTC - and they're the second best (i.e. 2nd least worst) sector today - also because of WTC - which bounced a little today after yesterday's big fall.

It's interesting that the so-called "defensive" sectors of Healthcare and REITs were the two worst sectors today, on a day when most companies ended in the red (although most of my gold producers were in the green), however the other defensive sector, Consumer Staples performed better - third best (i.e. third least-worst) sector.

I'm thinking REITs may look better when bank interest rates in Australia actually do start falling and people start getting lower returns for their cash and term deposits. Not my cup of chai, but horses for courses.

Guess which goldie topped the green on the screen AGAIN today - why it's none other than Yandal Resources (YRL) for the second day on the trot - this time a +16.28% rise (on the back of yesterday's +115% rise) - hope they're using some protection - the fall from up there could be painful. Probably not fatal tho, as they are a company that has a history of spiking up on positive drilling results then falling steadily whenever there is no news. Up by the elevator and down by the stairs - the exact opposite of some larger companies who rise steadily in the absence of news and then drop like a stone when they release anything that falls short of market expectations.

In that respect, YRL could be a good trading stock I guess, if you're into that sort of thing.

The second best across the Aussie Gold Sector was Meeka Metals (MEK), up +10.45%, and they've established quite the uptrend since the end of June. FY25 is likely to be a good year for MEK shareholders methinks; they have reported 12 days ago that upgrade and re-start works on the Murchison CIL gold processing plant is on-track - see here: Ball Mill En-route & Process Plant Expansion on Track [10-Oct-2024]

Meeka, you'll be a gold producer soon

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New 12m high today of 7.4 cps, which is where they closed, so plenty of upward momentum at this point, and I like that Bids vs Offers spread. The higher numbers on the right at the top of the offers can look a bit daunting until you realise that 1.3 million shares at 7.4 cps is only $96 K ($96,200) and they traded over 20 million shares today for a total value of $1.47 million. I was dabbling in this one a couple of months back but clearly got out too soon. Not holding currently (but wish I was!)...

In other news (to me anyway), Lycopodium (LYL) took a day off their persistent downtrend today and actually rose +25 cps (+2.26%) to close at $11.32. They were over $14 in August. I don't mind if they stop falling for a while actually, because I'm full to the gills with LYL now - no room left for more LYL in any of my portfolios, so they can go ahead and rise again, and with the gold price where it is, they damn well should! No rush however - I'm not impatient with this one because they actually do provide excellent income through their high fully franked dividends - so there's compensation there for patience.

In my SMSF today I bought more EVN at $5.22, and outside of the gold sector I fully exited AD8 and swapped that money into Wisetech (WTC), plus topped up a couple of Energy sector stocks, COE and STO because I think the energy sector may be close to bottoming down here, at least until the next downturn comes along. I like COE and STO for their exposure to future rising Australian natural gas demand. I reckon natural gas is going to play an important role in the energy transition to mostly renewables and away from coal-burning power stations, and quite a few large manufacturers are going to need to lock in their natural gas supply and that's going to favour those two companies in particular in terms of east coast domestic gas - as opposed to exported LNG. The short version is that I think the downside with Cooper Energy and Santos is fairly limited down here where they are today, but the upside is significant if one or two things go alright for them.

Since this is the "gold" thread, I'll end this post on this: St Barbara (SBM): Proof that sometimes a rising tide can lift even the roughest and most unseaworthy of boats:

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Made a new year-high of 47 cps intraday today before closing at 46 cps. They still have some serious environmental approval issues in Nova Scotia, so in my opinion it's really only Simberi in PNG that is a half-decent asset for them now, but punters are clearly piling in on what is perceived as positive news, even when the company outlook isn't really all that positive, compared to much better options elsewhere across the Aussie gold sector. Here's what they've released recently that's been floating their boat:

Update on Touquoy Mine Renewable Energy Investigation [today, 22-Oct-2024]

Alternative Cochrane Hill Project Design Commences [also today]

Significant Intercept of 31 m at 6.1 g/t Au [17-Oct-2024]

That last one with the 6.1 grams of gold/tonne of ore gold hits is at Simberi (PNG) - the other two refer to their Atlantic assets in Nova Scotia (Canada).

I think Simberi has legs if they finally pull their finger out and do the plant upgrade to allow processing of sulphide ore, coz there's heaps of sulphide ore below their various oxide ore pits on Simberi Island but their plant wasn't built to process sulphide ore. But I wouldn't ascribe too much value to those Atlantic assets - if you Google where they are - a wilderness area that the locals and the government want to protect - especially from open pit mining - they're going to be pushing excrement up a steep incline over there IMO.

I'm not in SBM of course - lost a heap on them last year when I finally decided the investment thesis was well and truly busted.

I liked their WA assets around Leonora, but they're all owned by GMD now. And I do hold GMD shares.


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RC drilling at Genesis Minerals’ Ulysses project in WA, 4 years ago (late 2020).


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What Genesis (GMD) own now - all the blue stuff. When you look at how close VAU's KOTH (King of the Hills) gold mill is to Genesis' tenements NNW of Harbour Lights, Tower Hill and Gwalia, you can see why some people believe that at some point in the future Genesis will become the owners of that mill. I don't think it will happen for a while now that Luke Tonkin has engineered that "merger" between Red 5 and Silver Lake Resources and renamed them Vault Minerals (VAU) and taken the top job there and given himself a pay rise - there's certainly no love lost between Luke Tonkin and Raleigh Finlayson so if Raleigh wanted to buy KOTH from Vault (for GMD), he'd be paying a HEAP to get it, and that's really not Raleigh's style. He's pretty good with his M&A. Really good actually! So hopefully Luke Tonkin might have to be patient and actually learn how to make money from his company's assets rather than rely on M&A shenanigans. Not to be confused with Stuart Tonkin (no relation I'm told) who runs NST.

6

lowway
Added 4 weeks ago

Thanks again @Bear77 , looks like I need to do my own research on $LYL, which has not been on my radar!! I'm not in a hurry to be diving into anything to do with resources right now, but always on the look out for something new to investigate.


7

Bear77
Added 4 weeks ago

Definitely worth a look @lowway - LYL is a company that both I and @mikebrisy like and hold, so that says something, because we don't have a huge amount of crossover, Mike not being into mining and me not wanting to stray into biotechs or pharma companies very often.

Maybe start here or here.

9
Solvetheriddle
Added 2 months ago

This is from an interview by Ian Cassel with Anthony Deden on why they (AD funds) hold gold and should cheer the hearts of all gold holders.

"The reason we own gold as a reserve asset is rooted in something fundamental. What makes gold compelling are the risks we do not take by owning it. No forecasting or guesswork is required. The risks we do not take owning gold could fill volumes. There's no duration risk, credit risk, liquidity risk. The metal is not moved by financial instability nor threatened by national insolvency or chaos in the foreign exchange markets. There are no margin calls and no refinancing risks. There's no risk of technological obsolescence, depletion, depreciation, or decay, nor does it require cheap energy, cheap credit, or cheap trade to remain viable. It does not care about your national energy policy or who you buy your gas from or how many pipelines are running. You don't have to keep the lights on or even keep it warm. There are no financial accounts to pour over, no balance sheet to blow up, no cash flow to dwindle, no stale inventory and no margin pressures at difficult times. There are no key manpower or supply risks, no competitive risks, no management or to squander his future. It does not depend on the character, skill or enthusiasm of anyone. It does not require the faith or goodwill of anyone. It does not require you to trust anyone except that you must store it and hold it in a safe place. So the absence of unwanted risk is the center of our investment approach. The principle applies to our choice of gold reserves as well as the business participation that we hold. Both parts brought together, seeking to avoid risks that are not worth taking, and by extension, have the freedom to choose risks worth embracing." 

18

Hackofalltrades
Added 2 months ago

It might seem a bit crazy, but I can see asteroid mining being a technological risk to the value of gold at some point.


I think we're safe for some time though...

6

Strawman
Added 2 months ago

Sounds very similar to another type of asset @Solvetheriddle ;)

7
Bear77
Added 2 months ago

Friday 13th September 2024: Friday 13th, unlucky for some, not for the Aussie Gold Sector today:

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Not bad when a sector is up over +5% half way through the day. I'm not saying that we are seeing a major rotation out of Australia's largest sector, Financials, into Australia's second largest sector, Materials, including mining, however we could be seeing the START of that rotation. The one I was referring to here - i.e. the WLE boys (Matt Haupt and John Ayoub) talking about Australian banks, particularly CBA being around 3.5 times book value and extremely overbought, even on a yield basis now, i.e. a dividend yield of close to 3% because of the much higher share price now - based on CBA's close yesterday ($142.96) and the $4.65 in dividends they declared in the past year, their historical or trailing dividend yield was only 3.25% last night, lower than term deposits, so they are no longer an income play except for people who bought them at signifcantly lower prices, and there are HEAPS of those people, who may well never sell. It's the overseas money flows that are going to make the biggest moves.

While Resources, and Gold in particular are having a really good day, to be fair, financials are down but not by much, so I reckon it's way too early to call that rotation yet, but it will come.

Today is a nice start anyway. The US$ gold price hit a new all time high again overnight:

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That's the 10 year chart first, followed by the 12 month chart of the gold bullion price in US dollars.

See here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-hits-all-time-high-fed-rate-cut-hopes-bolster-appeal-2024-09-12/ [September 13, 2024 @ 3:53 AM GMT+9:30, Updated 9 hours ago]

Excerpt: Spot gold was up 1.7% at $2,554.05 per ounce, as of 02:10 p.m. ET (1810 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 1.5% higher at $2,580.60. (this was on their Thursday, i.e. yesterday, or overnight our time).

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US$ above - Australian dollars below:

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Here is a snapshot of our gold sector in the past half hour, from best performers down to worst:

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I've highlighted the gold bullion ETFs / ETPs (Exchange Traded Funds / Products) there - which tend to track the physical gold price fairly closely. Note that QAU is the only one of those four that is currency hedged, and it rose the most, although the difference is minor.

When the vast majority of the sector is rising by more than the gold price is, that's a bullish sign. It means the sentiment across the sector is positive.

Here's the bottom part of that list that wouldn't fit on that screen shot:

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While SXG are underperforming today, in the past year Southern Cross Gold has risen from below $1 to above $3/share, and they're still up at $2.79, so anyone who has been in SXG since this time last year would NOT be complaining. Likewise, SMI, Santana Minerals, has risen from 50 cps to $2.10 (so over 4x) and they're still at $2.04, so again, they've outperformed over the year and are just taking a breather now as perhaps some people take profits and rotate that money into stocks they think could do similar things in the next 12 months.

Magnetic Resources (MAU) however is now in a downtrend after doubling from below 80 cps to $1.60. MAU is now down to $1.31 and all their momentum is currently heading south. We have talked about them here - main problem appears to be their MD, George Sakalidis, who talks himself and his company up, but has shown his lack of professionalism by mumbling the names of two larger gold companies who had been "in our dataroom" and are "showing interest" at the recent Diggers & Dealers (D&D) conference in Kalgoorlie (in August).

In one fell swoop, George announced the company was definitely up for sale, and pissed off the two parties that had previously been interested in buying the company, so now those buyers have backed right off and we have a company where the management have clearly stated that their aim is not to develop their assets through to gold production but instead to cash out by selling to a larger producer who already owns a gold mill that can process their ore.

They could well still get taken out by one of those companies with mills in the area, probably Genesis Minerals (GMD), however my guess would be not any time soon, unless they change MDs. And perhaps not at the prices they were at prior to D&D either - unless they find a lot more gold. So drill George, drill!

Not holding MAU - I made some money on them as a trade in July. Not holding SMI either - coz their project is in New Zealand - and in productive farmland - remember McPhillamys? Bowdens Silver Mine?

Southern Cross Gold (SXG) did interest me earlier this year, but I didn't pull the trigger because I thought they looked expensive for a project developer, as good as their Sunday Creek project in the Victorian Goldfields is, and now they're jumping on the antimony train - see their September 5th announcement: SXG Discovers 135m wide Gold-Antimony Zone below Golden Dyke.

They released this presso on the same day: Sunday Creek – Victorian Goldfields: An Expanding and Significant Global Gold Discovery.

Their SP rose +5% on the day and almost +6% the following day. They went from a $2.61 close on Sep 4th to $3/share on the 9th (the Monday just gone). Plenty of hype there I reckon.

Dual Listed (ASX and TSXV). And they are pumping the Antimony they've found as well as the gold-friendly district their ground is in. And they're also well aware of the Lassonde Curve and are highlighting that as well:

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As an aside, the Money of Mine (MoM) podcast crew use the Lassonde Curve as their logo:

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For reference, the Lassonde Curve is explained well here: https://www.smallcapinvestor.ca/post/the-lassonde-curve-understanding-the-mining-life-cycle

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Source: Visual Capitalist

Excerpt:

The Lassonde Curve - Understanding the Mining Life Cycle

In the world of mining and exploration, understanding the dynamics of the industry is crucial for investors and industry professionals alike. One concept that has gained prominence is the Lassonde Curve, named after Pierre Lassonde, a renowned figure in the mining industry. The Lassonde Curve provides valuable insights into the stages of the mining life cycle and the potential value creation at each phase. In this article, we will delve into the details of the Lassonde Curve, exploring its significance and how it can guide investors in navigating the early-stage opportunities offered by junior mining companies.

Understanding the Lassonde Curve

The Lassonde Curve is a graphical representation that illustrates the value creation process in the mining industry. It showcases the various stages of a mineral property's life cycle, from concept and discovery to feasibility, development, and ultimately, production. The curve helps investors and industry professionals visualize the value trajectory of a mining project as it progresses through these stages.

  1. Concept Phase: The journey begins with the acquisition of a prospective mineral property. This phase involves conducting initial exploration work, including surface mapping and sampling, to determine the property's mineral potential. By communicating the property's value proposition to the capital markets, companies aim to attract investors willing to fund further exploration activities.
  2. Discovery Phase: If the concept phase yields promising results, companies proceed to the discovery phase. Here, diamond drilling is employed to assess the presence and extent of valuable minerals beneath the surface. A significant discovery can spark investor interest and contribute to a surge in the company's valuation.
  3. Feasibility Phase: After confirming the existence of mineral resources, the project enters the feasibility phase. This stage involves comprehensive engineering and financial studies to evaluate the project's viability and assess its potential profitability. Different types of studies, such as Preliminary Economic Assessments (PEAs) and Pre-Feasibility Studies (PFS), provide detailed insights into the project's technical and economic aspects.
  4. Development Phase: Once a mining project has undergone rigorous engineering and financial evaluations, it may progress to the development phase. Here, companies work towards transforming the mineral deposit into a fully operational mining operation. Securing funding and obtaining necessary permits are crucial steps in this phase. Development requires substantial capital investment and expertise, as the project moves closer to actual production.
  5. Startup Phase: The startup phase represents a significant milestone in a mineral company's journey. It marks the transition from development to production, where the mine becomes operational and generates revenues. At this stage, investors can assess the company's operational, environmental, social, and financial performance to make informed investment decisions.


Applying the Lassonde Curve

The Lassonde Curve serves as a guide for investors interested in early-stage opportunities in the mining sector, particularly with junior mining companies focused on exploration and development. By understanding the stages of the curve, investors can assess the progress and potential value creation of a mining project.

Investors can analyze a company's milestones and compare them to the expected progression on the Lassonde Curve. This assessment helps them gauge the project's stage and the potential impact on its intrinsic value. For example, a positive feasibility study announcement can act as a catalyst for share price movement, indicating a significant step towards development.

It's important to note that the Lassonde Curve is not the sole determinant of a project's success or an investor's decision-making process. External factors, such as market conditions, commodity prices, regulatory hurdles, and operational challenges, can influence a project's outcomes.

Case Study: The Oyu Tolgoi Deposit

The Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold discovery in Mongolia provides a real-life illustration of the value cycle in action. From the initial concept and exploration stages to feasibility, development, and production, this case study exemplifies the complex journey of a mining project.

By studying the Oyu Tolgoi example, investors and industry professionals can gain valuable insights into the dynamics of mineral discoveries, assess their investment potential, and navigate the inherent risks.

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Source: Visual Capitalist

Concept: 15+ Years

Initial exploration work near the Oyu Tolgoi site took place in the 1980s. However, it wasn't until 1996 that Australian miner BHP conducted further exploration activities. After conducting 21 drill holes, BHP lost interest in the project and opted to option the property to mining entrepreneur Robert Friedland and his company Ivanhoe Mines. At this stage in 1999, investing in Ivanhoe shares was considered speculative.

Pre-Discovery/Discovery: ~3 years

Ivanhoe Mines and BHP entered into an earn-in agreement, whereby Ivanhoe gained ownership rights by conducting exploration work on the Oyu Tolgoi site. Approximately a year later, the first drill results were released from drill hole 150, revealing an impressive intersection of 508 meters with 1.1 g/t Au and 0.8% copper. To put this into perspective, imagine a 45-story building, with one-third of each story consisting of copper. This discovery represented only a fraction of the potential deposit, which could extend for miles. The release of these promising drill results sparked wild speculation, as the growing evidence of a massive copper-gold deposit in Mongolia drove up Ivanhoe's share price.

Feasibility/Orphan Period: ~2 years

In 2004, the drilling results contributed to the development of the first scoping study, providing a preliminary understanding of the project's economic viability.

With this study in hand, the company needed to secure sufficient funding to construct a mine and extract the valuable ore. It wasn't until two years later, when Ivanhoe Mines entered into an agreement with major mining company Rio Tinto, that a production decision was ultimately solidified.

Development: 7 years

By 2006, the Oyu Tolgoi mineral deposit had entered the development phase, with the completion of the first shaft headframe, hoisting frame, and associated infrastructure. Over the next two years, the shaft reached a depth of 1,385 feet. Further development work resulted in the delineation of a resource estimate of 1.2 billion pounds of copper, 650,000 ounces of gold, and 3 million ounces of silver. The initial stage of Oyu Tolgoi's development propelled Mongolia to become the world's fastest-growing economy between 2009 and 2011.

Startup/Production: Ongoing

On January 31, 2013, Ivanhoe Mines announced the production of the first copper-gold concentrate from the Oyu Tolgoi mine. Six months later, the company reported processing up to 70,000 tonnes of ore daily.

Depletion: Into the Future

Given the immense scale of the Oyu Tolgoi deposit, it is expected to last for generations, making it challenging to determine its long-term investment value. However, it is essential to acknowledge that risks still lie ahead. Potential challenges include labor disruptions, mining method issues, or fluctuations in commodity prices. Investors must carefully consider these factors as they unfold.

Conclusion

The Lassonde Curve offers valuable insights into the mining life cycle and the potential value creation at each stage. By understanding this concept, investors can navigate the complex mining industry more effectively. The curve provides a framework for assessing the progress of mining projects, from early exploration to production, and helps investors make informed decisions.

While the Lassonde Curve serves as a useful guideline, it's essential to consider other factors that can impact a project's success. Investors should conduct thorough due diligence, analyze market conditions, evaluate the management team's expertise, and consider the project's unique characteristics.

In summary, the Lassonde Curve acts as a roadmap, enabling investors to track a mining project's progress and evaluate its value potential. With a comprehensive understanding of the mining life cycle and the insights provided by the curve, investors can make more informed investment decisions in the dynamic and rewarding world of mining.

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Article Sourced from: https://www.smallcapinvestor.ca/post/the-lassonde-curve-understanding-the-mining-life-cycle


So SXG are highlighting where they are on the Lassonde Curve and that their plan is to "Drill Baby, Drill!" with their drill rig count increasing to 6 - and they'll still be drilling in June next year while progressing "Baseline Environmental Studies/Permitting" - see slide 38 from their recent Presso reproduced above (above the Lassonde curve article and the MoM logo screenshot), so they are highlighting the potential for a share price run-up during this period, while simultaneously highlighting that they are one of the few projects in Australia with Antimony alongside the gold, which is regarded as a critical mineral and the price went vertical recently because of this:

On August 14, China announced export restrictions on antimony in the country’s latest move to restrict critical mineral shipments globally in the name of national security. Antimony is a critical input for the defense industry, particularly for armor-piercing ammunition, night vision goggles, infrared sensors, bullets, and precision optics, and the electronics industry, including semiconductors, cables, and batteries. This is the latest restriction after a series of export controls in 2023 on graphite, germanium, gallium, and rare earth processing technologies, raising alarms in the semiconductor, electric vehicle, and defense industries that rely on these materials.

China is the world’s leading producer of antimony, accounting for 48 percent of global production and 63 percent of U.S. antimony imports. The likelihood of antimony supply disruptions has now increased significantly, necessitating the United States to quickly secure antimony supply chains from non-Chinese sources.

Info source: https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-antimony-export-restrictions-impact-us-national-security

There's always something, eh!?!

So, yeah, SXG (Southern Cross Gold) certainly has plenty of upside potential from here, but they are too speculative for me at this point - I probably would have been in like Flynn a few years ago however...

I'll stick to my profitable multi-mine producers at this stage rather than any project developers. But as project developers go, if you're into that sort of thing, might be worth a closer look.

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Bear77
Added 3 months ago

30-Aug-2024: The last trading day of August and the last day for companies to lodge reports for the 6 and/or 12 month periods that ended June 30th 2024.

And Newmont Mining (NEM), the world's largest gold miner, HQ'd in the USA, with their primary listing on the New York Stock Exchange, but who also trade here on our ASX via a CDI and are the largest participant in the Aussie Gold Index for some strange reason that is as a result of them acquiring Newcrest Mining (which was Australia's largest gold mining company) last year, hit a 12-month high today, of $78.83, before closing a little lower at $78.27. No wonder the Aussie Gold sector outperformed today:

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As well as NEM, we also had SPR and RMS (I hold RMS) making 12-month highs today. Ramelius (RMS) happen to own 17.94% of Spartan (SPR), and have a look at Spartan's chart. Couldn't be much better over 1 year. Three years looks OK. 5 Years looks reasonable. 10 years, not so much - as they used to trade between $6 and $8/share from early 2016 through to mid-2018 (when they were known as Gascoyne Resources and their many issues at their Dalgaranga Gold Mill in WA hadn't fully come to the market's attention yet - and they're now making 12-month highs at $1.46 ($1.455), having been as low as 28.5 cps this year and even down to 10 cps in March of last year. Different company now, and mining different lodes too, and RMS are along for the ride, since they have no debt and a pile of cash (over $400 million of net cash and bullion and liquid shares at June 30). SPR +12.36% today, RMS only up +0.91% (up +2c to $2.22).

Genesis Minerals (GMD), which I also hold, was also up +6% today to $2.27, which was a new 12-month high for them also, but they somehow didn't make it onto MP's table of 12-month highs and lows (above).

Other than those four goldies, we had 3 of our big 5 banks making new 12-month highs today (WBC, ANZ & MQG), as well as Resmed (RMD) and Codan (CDA). New IPO, Guzman Y Gomez made another new high again today also. So did Downer EDI (DOW) which is a company that the market clearly had low expectations for, as their report didn't shoot the lights out, considering they have come off a fairly low base, and they rose +16.95% (call it +17%). I held them briefly a few years ago, but their disclosures were fairly ordinary and I was invited to be part of two different class actions against their management - I didn't bother because I made money on one trade and lost money on another and pretty much broke even so it wasn't worth the effort. But I stopped following them and was surprised when I saw that market reaction to their report today.

Back to gold, the other three gold producers that I hold in real-money portfolios (all in my SMSF actually), PRU, EMR and NST, are all within spitting distance of making new 12-month highs themselves, and for NST a new 12-month high would also be a new all-time high, and for PRU and EMR new 12-month highs would also be new 10-year highs.

The Aussie Gold Sector companies that moved up the most today (SPR, GSM, PNR, AAR, RED, GMD, WGX & BTR - all up by over +5%) suggest to me that:

  1. People are looking to get some positions in potential M&A targets; and
  2. In the case of GMD & WGX people are looking for the next mid-sized producer that is most likely to be one of the larger Aussie gold producers in 3 to 5 years from now which will likely be through a combination of organic growth (own project development and further exploration success) and M&A (more acquisitions).


Disc: Of those discussed above, I hold NST, RMS, GMD, PRU and EMR in real-money portfolios and a very small trading position here only in PNR, and I have indirect exposure to SPR through RMS (who own almost 18% of SPR).

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https://www.kalminer.com.au/news/regional/spartan-resources-2024-focus-of-drilling-and-de-risking-yields-strong-results-at-dalgaranga-gold-project-c-13584763

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