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Valuation of $3.36
Added 3 years ago
August 2021: It will be interesting to see what Dexus does with this fund. I'm comfortable with the valuation of the office assets (cap rate of around 6.5%) which are probably around 35% of the portfolio. Recent market action indicates to me that the industrial component of the portfolio has a decent way to run in terms of cap rates. If the decision was made to divest the office assets I think I could justify a drop in the discount rate used in my previous valuation due to the fund having both lower gearing and/or sole exposure to industrial assets. Even if I plug 8% into the below assumptions I still only get a val of around $3.36. Not enough margin of safety for me to add to my position at this stage. May 2021: Todays update is positive and exceeds my previous thesis in terms on NTA growth. Still confident my DCF is pretty accurate so will stick with that. Discount rate: 8.5% (1% higher than CIP) Starting Distribution= $0.175 Growth rate: 5% for 10 years (justified by improving vacancy, average rent reviews of 3% and a current payout ratio of 86%). Terminal growth rate = 2% (CPI proxy) giving value at year 10 of $4.45 including that years distribution) NPV = $3.21
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