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Last edited 2 months ago
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#8
Performance (53m)
14.9% pa
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Straws
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#Bull Case
Last edited 2 months ago

MetalsX finally showing some initiative in capital management with the pile of cash lying around.

a871642cafc8345a2a8623417079a7d22fdbe1.png

However this may not stop the share price being capped due to the selling from Old Peak.since most selling has been absorbed by APAC Resources Pty Ltd.

The story does not end there. Brett Smith who is the MD of MetalsX is also the deputy chairman of APAC Resources

2191a5f261592256faf817a7addafae4f8862c.png

Old Peak has 41m shares left vs 198m from APAC. The 41m could in theory be absorbed by the proposed buyback.

For those looking to get out and break even, including myself, maybe now is the chance?

Might be a prudent move given past valuations sub 20c? But recent performance and Tin price appreciation since the export hold in Indonesia gives some pause for thought

75a2129ae5bba5c1e3495d0448abbbeedda8ce.png

[held]


#Industry/competitors
Added 3 months ago

Article about corruption in trading system for Tin used by Tin miner PT Timah in Indonesia

https://www.kompas.id/baca/english/2023/12/07/en-kejagung-sita-uang-dan-emas-senilai-puluhan-miliar-terkait-tata-niaga-timah

Could have some repercussions on the Tin price if the largest producer of Tin in Indonesia has a case to answer for.

Sold too early here as usual to release funds but still holding IRL.

Only thing getting in the way of the price rising and making a decent return for me is the constant selling by Old Peak and some supply coming from Indonesia.

[held]

#ASX Announcements
stale
Added one year ago

Actually thought that quarterly wasn't so bad.

These numbers came during a period of abnormally high energy prices and low tin prices.

Since everyone has "opinions" on where energy and commodity prices are heading i will stay silent for now.

Price at time of straw is still holding atm

(Held)

#Risks
stale
Added one year ago

Been hearing that Old Peak is the one selling all the shares and capping the share price

Source: Tikr

d94eb123b871747f26590d3d00e2ab1d3aaf5d.png

Still got 97.7m to sell.

[held]

#Industry/competitors
stale
Added one year ago

Tin rises on supply concerns from Peru government protests forcing closure of San Rafael tin mine in the world.

Also in Peru, tin miner Minsur said it was temporarily suspending operations at its San Rafael mine, one of the largest tin mines in the world, located in the Puno region, rocked by fierce anti-government protests.

https://www.reuters.com/article/global-metals/metals-london-copper-rises-on-peru-disruption-weak-dollar-and-china-hope-idUSL1N34105C

[held]

#Industry/competitors
stale
Last edited one year ago

Part of the run in MetalsX could be explained by upcoming plans from Indonesia to restrict Tin exports

https://internationalbanker.com/brokerage/why-have-tin-prices-struggled-in-2022/

Some bulls might be buoyed by news published in October that Indonesia, the world’s biggest exporter of refined tin, was reportedly planning to ban exports of the metal to promote its domestic tin-processing capacity. Indonesia consumes only 5 percent of the refined tin it produces while exporting 95 percent. The ban is part of a broader Indonesian plan to reserve mineral resources such as nickel, tin, copper and bauxite for domestic processing and export higher-value-added products instead of just shipping cheap raw materials, Reuters reported on October 20

In response, Chinese buyers appear to be frontrunning the demand. However nothing firm yet.

This is just a short to medium term hold which I didn't have time to put into my strawman holding the other day so the buy order is just hanging there at 34c. Also below is evidence that MetalsX also has copper although it is not much.

Given the run on the share price these last few days, might be tempting to reduce.

https://www.metalsx.com.au/tin-mineral-resource-estimates/

4f9ea4be76e9db83f4694c025a90ce5427ffa9.png

[held]

#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added one year ago

Saw the rather low valuation but with the China reopening, resource expansion and all those stakes in CYM and NC1, there has to be some value around 30c.

Also MetalsX isn't just Tin but Copper as well.

Bought yesterday after seeing the buy side.

[held]