Half‑yearly out from NHE

My summary to save you having a deep dive:

The picture is pretty simple: they’re keeping the company alive long enough to drill in Q2. Cash was down to $22k at 31 Dec, so the short‑term funding from Dennis and Clarke is what’s bridging them through the pre‑drill period.

Operationally, the work is actually in good shape — access sorted, engineering closed out, farmers agreements done, and the independent panel has signed off on the drilling plan. The resource upgrade from NSAI last year still stands, and the four‑well program is locked in.

So the story here is straightforward: directors are backing it with their own money, the technical case is stronger than it’s ever been, and everything now points to the Q2 drilling window. High risk, high reward, but at least the path is clear.

In my view, the Chairman’s behaviour speaks for itself — he’s effectively all‑in at this point.

Disc: Hold IRL and SM

Nobel Helium Part 4 - What's it worth?

There’s a moment in a story where you realise the plan isn’t working. For me, that moment came after the first drill — not a disaster, not a breakthrough, a result that sat in the grey zone. It didn’t confirm the model, it didn’t kill it either, the company simply ran out of room to pretend the plan was still working.

Funding pressure built fast. With the share count stretched, a market with no appetite for more dilution, issuing script became a non‑starter, so they leaned on loans, momentum drained from the story, a slow stall that left the company exposed.

A reset became unavoidable, the new team stepped in with a quiet, competent posture focused on rebuilding the foundation rather than selling a dream, this is where the real work began.

Conviction didn’t arrive in a rush, it arrived through work. When the announcement came through, I wasn’t happy or sad, I just wanted to know if they could do better. So I started researching the people stepping in. The more I dug, the more I liked. A few of them poured money in as loans, the story sharpened again. They paused the rush, took the time to clean the structure rather than trying to fix everything on the fly. When you do that, you miss things, I know I do. The more I listened to their webcasts, the more reports I read, the more I liked what this team was doing, the more I trusted the direction they were taking.

In management I was always taught to build a team around you who know more than you do. The new team doesn’t just bring knowledge, they bring depth, they bring people who are experts in their field. Some look at that and wonder if we’re spending money wisely. I see belts and braces. Every extra layer of expertise, every piece of additional research, every specialist they bring in increases the odds that the next drill hits what we’re chasing.

So where are we now?

The way I read the story, we’ve almost finished rebuilding the scaffolding. The frame is stable, the plan is clear, the drilling locations and depths are fine‑tuned. We’re finally at the point where drilling is about to start. I say finally because, like everyone else, I want to see the drill bit turning. At the end of the day the drill bit does the talking. No helium, no discovery, no company‑making moment.

So that’s where we stand — a rebuilt structure facing a real test. Everything up to this point has been preparation. Not noise, not delay, preparation. The team is deeper, the plan is tighter, the targets are refined, the scaffolding is almost complete. Now we’re stepping into the part of the story where preparation meets geology. No shortcuts, no excuses, no hiding behind process. The drill bit turns, the rock answers, the truth arrives.

The opportunity I see going forward is a huge helium discovery. This is going to sound lame, it’s hard to put real numbers on it. You can try to model it, we all know the formula — W amount of helium, X to extract it, Y to process it, Z to ship it — and you end up with a figure that looks neat on paper. The problem is the numbers here are too big. They break the model — well, my model. If someone wants to have a go, please do, I’ll be very interested in what you come up with. They push past what a small company can handle on its own.

You can try and put some numbers on it. We have W helium. In this case W is 225.5 Bcf — the mean unrisked prospective. The .5 alone, using conservative pricing, is worth over $100 million. And that’s just half a Bcf. When you start scaling that across the full model, the numbers get ridiculous. As for what it costs to extract it, that’s X — another huge number. Then you’ve got Y to process it, Z to ship it. On paper it all looks neat. In reality the scale blows the model apart.

That’s why we need a joint‑venture partner who builds big things. Someone who knows how to take a discovery of this scale and turn it into a real project. How much we get to keep is unknown. I trust our crew to look after us, to do the best deal they can. I’ve tried to put a dollar figure on it, I get stuck every time.

And that’s exactly why a JV isn’t optional, it’s structural. When the upside sits in the hundreds of billions of cubic feet and even half a Bcf is worth over a hundred million dollars, you’re not talking about a small‑cap project anymore. You’re talking about infrastructure, processing, pipelines, liquefaction, long‑term offtake — the kind of stuff only a major can build. The geology might hand us something extraordinary, but the execution requires someone with deep pockets, deep experience, and the ability to turn scale into reality.

A discovery this size doesn’t get monetised by a junior. It gets proven by a junior, then built by a heavyweight. That’s the model. That’s the path. That’s why the partner matters more than the spreadsheet. You can model W, X, Y, Z all day, but once the numbers get this big, the maths stops being the limiting factor. Capability does.

So here’s where I stand going into this drill. We’ve rebuilt the structure, we’ve deepened the team, we’ve tightened the plan, and we’ve finally reached the point where the only thing left is the part that actually matters — the drill bit cutting rock. Everything up to now has been preparation. Necessary, frustrating, expensive, slow preparation. But preparation all the same.

I’m not pretending the risk is gone. I’m not pretending the outcome is guaranteed. I’m not pretending I can model a basin‑scale helium system with any precision. What I am saying is this:

The setup is stronger than it’s ever been.

The team is better than it’s ever been.

The opportunity is bigger than anything a junior can handle alone.

And the truth arrives the moment the bit turns.

That’s the posture. Clear‑eyed. Disciplined. No fantasy. No excuses. Ready for whatever the rock gives us.

If it hits, the scale is enormous.

If it misses, we take the truth and move forward.

Either way, the next drill decide the story.

NHE Series – Part 3: The Team, the Work, and the Path Ahead

This chapter steps away from the past and looks at the team that’s now in place and the plan they’re executing, which is where the real future of NHE sits. The company has stabilised its capital structure, reset its leadership, and brought in people who are actually doing the work. The question now is whether this group can turn a promising geological idea into a commercial project.

The answer sits in capability, discipline, and the quality of the work underway.

The Team Now Running the Project

The most important change at NHE is the people. The company finally has a group behaving like they intend to deliver a real project rather than talk about one.

A board that is aligned and acting like owners

The board is not drawing salaries. Several have put their own money into the company, including interest‑free loans. That is unusual in small caps and signals alignment, confidence, and a willingness to shoulder risk alongside shareholders. It also sets a cultural tone: capital matters, and waste is not tolerated.

A technical team with genuine basin and helium experience

For the first time, NHE has a fully formed technical bench rather than a rotating cast of consultants. The team now includes:

• geoscientists who understand the Tanzanian basin architecture
• reservoir specialists who can model pressure, migration, and trap integrity
• a technical lead with experience running multi‑well programs in frontier basins
• advisors with direct helium system modelling experience

This is a step change in capability. The company now has people who can build a defensible technical case and present it credibly to potential partners.

Leadership that is operational, not promotional

The tone has shifted. The new leadership style is quiet, disciplined, and focused on delivery. No grandstanding. No over‑promising. No “next quarter” theatre. The company is behaving like a group that understands execution is the only thing that matters.

The Work Underway

The team is not waiting for sentiment to turn. Several streams of work are progressing in parallel, each aimed at strengthening the technical case and preparing the project for a credible partner.

Technical tightening

The seismic interpretation is being refined and integrated with new data. The goal is to produce a clearer structural model and a target hierarchy that stands up to scrutiny. This is the work that removes ambiguity and gives a partner confidence that the targets are real and drillable.

Reservoir characterisation

This is the heart of the helium case. The team is working through:

• pressure modelling
• migration pathways
• trap integrity
• reservoir quality predictions

These are the elements that determine whether helium is present in commercial quantities. This work turns a geological concept into a technical argument that can be funded.

Farm‑out preparation

The data room is being structured properly, with the technical work feeding directly into partner discussions. The company is preparing for targeted engagement with groups that bring capability, not just capital. The focus is on a JV that reduces dilution, strengthens execution, and sets up a multi‑well program.

Capital discipline

The board has cut unnecessary spending, stabilised the balance sheet, and created a funding runway that avoids panic dilution. This is the first time in years the company has behaved like capital actually matters. It also gives the technical team the breathing room to do the work properly.

What Success Looks Like With This Team

Success is no longer theoretical. It is tied directly to the capability and behaviour of the people now running the project.

• a technical model that a partner can sign off on
• a JV deal that brings expertise and reduces dilution
• a funded multi‑well program
• a board that stays aligned and keeps costs tight
• a clear path to monetisation

The difference now is that the company has the people to deliver these steps. The project is still high‑risk, although it is now being managed by a group that understands how to sequence risk rather than amplify it.

How to Think About Value With This Setup

Valuation remains a probability‑weighted path, although the probabilities shift when the team improves.

• stronger technical capability increases the chance of a credible JV
• stronger governance reduces dilution
• stronger sequencing increases the chance of a multi‑well program
• stronger communication reduces market noise

The upside is real. The risks are real. The company is now behaving like a group that intends to earn the upside rather than talk about it. That alone changes the shape of the story for me.

In the next part I'm going to explore the reasons I'm investing in this story and attempt to put a value on it. If you have questions, please feel free to ask, happy to answer what I know and even find the answers for the questions I don't know.

Part 2 — The Board Coup That Changed Everything

Last week I laid out why NHE is one of the few frontier explorers where the underlying geology still matters. This part is about the moment everything pivoted — the board coup. It wasn’t noise, it wasn’t politics, and it wasn’t a distraction. It was the single most important governance event in the company’s history.

The old board had lost the confidence of the market. Capital was drying up, communication was inconsistent, and the strategy was drifting. Investors were frustrated, and the share price reflected it. The coup wasn’t a surprise; it was the inevitable correction.

The new board stepped in with a very different posture. The people who arrived weren’t placeholders. They’re operators with real networks and real experience. They brought capital‑markets credibility, government relationships, and industry reach that the previous board simply didn’t have. This wasn’t a cosmetic reshuffle. It was a shift toward people who know how to run a listed company, raise money in tough markets, and rebuild trust with institutions.

Dennis Donald is the standout example. He’s one of the few people in this sector who has taken a frontier explorer through appraisal, into production, and then into a major corporate transaction. His work at Warrego Energy is the proof. That experience matters. It means he understands operational risk, capital discipline, and the difference between a good story and a real project. His presence on the board isn’t symbolic. It signals that NHE now has leadership with the track record to execute, not just talk.

Another point that matters is how the new board is behaving financially. They aren’t taking pay. In fact, the opposite is happening. Several directors have been lending money to the company to keep it moving, some of it at zero interest. That is real skin in the game. It’s the clearest signal you can get that the people in charge believe the project is worth fighting for, even in the toughest market conditions.

The coup didn’t fix everything, although it created the conditions for NHE to move forward. It was the reset the company had to have. In Part 3 I’ll go deeper into the operational plan — what’s real, what’s achievable, and what the next drilling campaign actually needs to deliver.

Disclosure: Hold, sits in speculative portfolio

WARNING: Low liquidity, sit at the market, don't go chasing, you'll get filled, just takes time.

NHE: The Opportunity and the Warts

I’ve been around long enough to know the difference between a good story and a good project. NHE has been both at different times, and sometimes neither. What keeps me watching isn’t blind optimism — it’s the fact that the underlying geology is genuinely unusual, and the company has finally gone through the kind of hard reset that most small caps avoid until it’s too late.

Let’s start with the simple bit:

North Rukwa is not your typical “maybe there’s something here” exploration play.

It’s a 5,500 km² position across four basins in what is probably the most helium‑rich rift system on the planet. The independent NSAI upgrade in 2025 didn’t come from marketing spin — it came from new data, new modelling, and a better understanding of how helium actually moves through this system. The mean prospective resource went from 175 Bcf to 225 Bcf. That’s not trivial.

But potential is the easy part. Delivery is where NHE has repeatedly face‑planted.

The last two years have been messy:

• A drilling rig stuck in Tanzania for 18 months, burning cash.
• A convertible loan with Obsidian that hung over the company like a storm cloud.
• A VAT refund shortfall that forced them into expensive debt.
• Delays, wet seasons, customs issues, and a board that couldn’t get ahead of the problems.
• Cash burn that didn’t match progress.
• A share price that reflected all of the above.

Then February 2025 happened — the shareholder revolt.

29% of the register effectively said: enough.

The entire board (except Wood) resigned.

Donald, MacNiven and Franks stepped in and immediately started cleaning up the mess.

And here’s the part most people miss:

This isn’t a board made up of directors who own a token parcel or whatever they were handed in a performance package.

These guys have real stakes — bought, not gifted — and they’ve doubled down by lending the company money out of their own pockets.

Donald alone has tipped in unsecured and secured loans.

MacNiven has put in over $1.6 million.

Clarke was a lender before he was even on the board.

If this thing fails, they wear it harder than most of the register.

You don’t see that often.

Most boards dilute shareholders first and ask questions later.

This one reached for their wallets.

Alongside that, they’ve done the hard yards:

• Marriott rig removed from Tanzania at no further cost.
• Obsidian loan renegotiated, then fully repaid.
• VAT loan rolled over to 2027.
• Directors not taking pay until the company is financially stable.
• Cost controls put in place.
• A proper geological peer review done.
• A drilling plan that actually fits the company’s size and bank balance.

And the geology itself has moved forward.

The hydrogen readings at Mbelele weren’t a sideshow — they were the key to understanding the helium charge system. The new model explains why Rukwa is so prolific and why helium migrates the way it does. It’s also why Kinambo suddenly looks like the standout shallow target.

But let’s be honest:

NHE is still unproven.

There is no commercial discovery.

There is no cashflow.

There is no guarantee the 2026 drilling campaign will deliver what the model suggests.

What we do have is:

• A cleaned‑up balance sheet (finally).
• A board with real skin in the game — and real money at risk.
• A rig on standby at zero cost.
• A five‑hole program that costs a fraction of the maiden campaign.
• A geological model that actually makes sense.
• And a basin that, if it works, could be globally significant.

This is why I’m still watching.

Not because it’s safe — it isn’t.

Not because it’s guaranteed — it isn’t.

But because the combination of geology, timing, and a board that’s finally behaving like adults gives this story a second life.

Next week, I’ll go into the board coup properly — what triggered it, what it fixed, and what it didn’t.