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Last edited 6 months ago
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#Thesis
Added 6 months ago

I discovered Verbrec thanks to Westferry, who would have invested in it 4-5 months ago. I've since noticed their position steadily increasing, and as of now, Verbrec is their 5th largest holding.

What interests me about Verbrec is that it's a turnaround story in plain sight. If they continue performing at this pace, even without further growth, they will be undervalued.

Currently, Verbrec's enterprise value (EV) is $50M. In their first-half presentation, they reported a profit from continuing operations of $2.9M. This positive result was offset by losses from legacy operations, which they have now exited.

This improvement is part of a turnaround plan led by their new CEO, Mark Read. I had the opportunity to meet him at my Brisbane Angels pitch and spoke with him for about 15 minutes. He impressed me as genuine and straightforward, and he spoke about favourable market conditions, notably their clients' desire to maximise asset use.

Overall, from my back of the napkin, Verbrec should on track to achieve a full-year profit of about $6M+ next fiscal year. This results in an EV/profit valuation of 8. If they don't grow much, they should be valued at around 11, implying a fair share price of approximately $0.17. If they grow at a mid-teens rate, the fair value would be closer to 13, suggesting a share price of $0.21.