8/7/2019
My previous numbers were way off track as noted in company announcement dated 31/5/2019.
FY19 NPAT estimated to be $10.5M. Note statutory NPAT has been inflated by $5.9M as the business reinstates historical tax losses.So  need to use underlying NPAT = $5.6M

PE ratio = 30 x
Market Cap target =  $5.6M x 30 = $168M
58,920,252 shares on issues gives
Share price target = $2.85.

This is very rough and haven't done any work on FY20 or FY21 earning.

Arguably, could use the higher estimated adjusted NPAT figure provided by the firm. Either way looks expensive for a compound manufacturer. Position closed.

24/5/2019
Very Rough val based on recent updates (and credit to Anthill for providing production, overhead numbers).

FY19 sales  (Kg)  =  2,300,000
Price/Kg   =   $US 25
Exchange rate = 0.7
Rev FY19  = $82,142,857       (though this may turn in to a run-rate figure with sales falling in to FY20)
COGS (at 0.45 - seems very generous) = $36,964,285
Overhead  =  $10,000,000        
EBITDA  =  $35,178,571
Tax rate = 0.3
NPAT = $AU 24,625,000        (assume negligible DA)

PE ratio = 30 x
Market Cap target =  $739M
Shares on issue (full diluted) =  58,136,252      (3B 22/5/19)
Share price target = $12.71

Company is based in Brisbane. I will hit CEO up for a site visit to test these figures. Anyone wanting to join me drop me a line at simon@kingsfordcap.com

24 May 2019

Unexpected Increase in Sales Orders

After attending a number of meetings in the US, we have just been informed there is an uplift in orders from the US close to 100T in additional orders at our current pricing. These orders cover the first quarter FY20, and dovetails well with our current increases to production capacity to September 2019. We believe the reason for the unexpected significant increase in orders is the result of the preliminary negotiations held with a number of sunscreen manufacturers in the US during our recent meetings. As per our strategic plan, we plan to visit a number of potential new distributors in Europe in early June. We are now quietly confident that our current growth trajectory can be maintained for the first half FY20 subject to no adverse unexpected issues. As per our announcement dated 24 January 2019, I must apologise to the shareholder who predicted a $10 share price within 2 years, as now the ANO share price is much closer to his prediction than I expected at the time of the announcement.

Geoff Acton (B.Com CA) Managing Director