Some random thoughts:

D20 could be attractive especially if we enter a dry couple of years. NSW/QLD has been wet but SA and VIC have been quite dry.

Bull

Decent discount to NTA and on buyback starting. Decent fully franked dividend. Regal could easily decide to take it over - they're acquiring every other asset manager under the sun at the moment.

"Government plans to recover up to 450 gigalitres of water entitlements. This equates to approximately 5% of water entitlements on issue in the southern Murray Darling Basin. However, this represents a much larger percentage of free float." 

Bear

Dividend needs profits to remain sustainable. Decision to start using forwards to hedge prices could limit any upside from dry conditions and higher water prices (shouldn't they have introduced this a few years ago when prices were high and had been for a while) not now when prices are low.

Do have some concerns about Grant Thornton being appointed as auditor given recent history though.

Last capital raising was a placement to instos only.

Also could be some more tax loss selling into June 30.

Neutral

Received cash from recent TWE call option exercise.

Typical Farming Cashflow problems here.. Tie the gate on with #8 Wire....

No Remuneration in the D20 Report??

Return (inc div)   1yr: -10.35%   3yr: 7.02% pa   5yr: 2.09% pa

Duxton also Farm:

Duxton Farms | Duxton Farms

Treasury Wine Estates (“TWE”) that it is exercising its Call Option to buy back 2,799 megalitres of NSW high security water entitlements from Duxton Water.

Duxton Water reported a net profit after tax of $2.8 million (half-year ended 30 June 2022: $4.4 million) for the half-year ended 30 June 2023. Despite the wettest conditions in 60 years, which resulted in extremely low water allocation prices, the Company’s leasing revenue and realisation of capital gains from rebalancing its permanent portfolio contributed to this positive result.

DUXTON WATER LIMITED (ASX:D2O) - Ann: Half Yearly Report and Accounts, page-1 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

****The Fair Market Value is not in accordance with the recognition and measurement requirements of the Australian Accounting Standards in relation to the accounting treatment of water assets (intangible assets). Therefore, increases in the Fair Market Value of water assets are not reported in the statutory accounts. 

Liquidity TWE freed up its Assets.

Return (inc div)   1yr: 0.38%   3yr: 10.51% pa   5yr: 7.80% pa

Expected dry season into 2024, so will see how this pans out!

More about D20:

D2O | Duxton Water

and more

Water Market Outlook – April 2023 - DAFF (agriculture.gov.au)

Permanent Entitlement – Live Auction (waterexchange.com.au)

During July, the Company continued to monitor market conditions as entitlement values softened. Entitlement values across the southern Murray Darling Basin (“sMDB”) decreased by 3.8% on average in July 2023.

Many Australian farming businesses are currently dealing with challenging economic conditions (higher interest rates, higher input costs, and in some cases, lower commodity prices).

This has resulted in irrigators selling water entitlements on the market to generate cash to prepare for the upcoming farming season.

Return (inc div)   1yr: -3.66%   3yr: 7.97% pa   5yr: 8.44% pa

Regal Funds Management Pty Ltd and its associates. Votes: 10,936,353 Voting power: *7.18% 

DUXTON WATER LIMITED (ASX:D2O) - Ann: Becoming a substantial holder, page-1 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Filling up 'water tanks'

Duxton has recently had some distributions. So has impacted the $shares.

Had some announcements re. renounceable. share offer.ect.

3 July 2023 Bonus Issue of Options to Shareholders • 1:4 Bonus Issue of Options to all Eligible shareholders (at no cost). • $1.92 share strike price with an expiry date of 10 May 2025. • Bonus Option proposed to be quoted and tradable on the ASX under code (ASX:D2OO). • Funds to be used to expand the Company’s portfolio of water entitlements or reduce debt.

Return (inc div)   1yr: -6.77%   3yr: 6.92% pa   5yr: 6.84% pa

from here $1.50 to $1.80 may return 20%

In the business of owning and then leasing water entitlements to agriculture.

Has about 280mil in assets 

With about 127million in liabilities

Gives us about 150mil net assets 

Shares on issue is 119 million

Pay out ~4million per half

?how much do the values of the underlying assets change over time?

Essentially a bond proxy / maybe decent value if good at valuing Australian water rights