#myfirstspeccy

So I finally sold my position in my first speccy (both IRL and strawman) !

It feels great !!

What a ride the six plus years have been.

From a brief hype driven high water mark of $1.00 in 2016 to its current $0.07 today.

Classic backyard private school hype share.

Probably broke even overall as I sold a bunch in 2016....but I absolutely count myself lucky. This company may not even be trading in a couple months. The peeps still holding on may lose it all.

After years of hope (not a good strategy)...the lack of consistent real world traction (sales) speaks the truth.

Wouldn't trade the experience for the world after tracking it on hc for years.

I now truly understand what a dogs breakfast the discourse can be in the small cap space and on the flip side WHAT A GREAT OPPORTUNITY IT REALLY IS for those with a sound approach.

Lessons learnt......

If private school types are endlessly talking about recent lunches with the CEO .....be skeptical

If it's always about how "disruptive" something is....but actually evidence doesn't prove a 10 times improvement....be skeptical

If the board constantly hype the future yet have never ever purchased shares.....be skeptical

If what sales have occurred are lumpy, come with little detail, and are suspiciously followed by cap raises....be skeptical

#lessonslearnt

More good real world news for LBT.

They've sold a machine(300k USD) with 3 modules (3 x 30k USD yearly fees) to the LADR Group in Germany. They have a network of over 80 labs.

This represents over $1million AUD in total top line revenue over the usual five year contract.

One machine is just a foot in the door for a lab group of this size. If its performance is positive there may be a multiple machine purchase by the group on the cards.

They seem seem to be pretty positive on the technology as part of their workflow and have presented clinical data from its use now at an industry conference.

A purchase of 15 machines would cover half of LBT yearly cash burn.

#optionality

LBT has completed a successful proof of concept for a multi national pharmaceutical manufacturer for a new application of its APAS instrument to monitor sterile conditions in pharmaceutical manufacturing rooms (clean rooms).

They project a $10billion market opportunity for this use case (their words...not mine...lol)

No other instrument in the world can automatically look at a culture plate and identify microbial growth.

Picture the instrument (looks like a photocopier) scanning culture plates and using its proprietary artificial intelligence (a database added to globally with every scan). Currently these plates need at least two microbiologists to separately look through the microscope at plates. APAS completely automates this.

#realworldtraction

LBT also announced recently that they had $1.6 million in quarterly sales revenue and $3 million in receivables for early sales of their core product, the APAS instrument.

It's interesting times as they are already selling machines through their new US distribution agreement which isn't even 12 months old yet. Considering the sales cycle is 12-18 months, they'll see the initial results of this deal bearing fruit next year.

It's current market price is incredibly low.

For every $300k USD machine they sell, LBT receives approx $100K, Thermofisher $100k, and the cost of manufacturing is $100k.

LBT also receives approx $30k USD license fees per annum for their application modules that come with the instrument.

Still early days, but there is real world traction.

First in market automated culture plate reader aiming for genuine disruption in global microbiology lab workflows.

No other instrument in the world can automatically scan a culture plate and provide a positive or negative reading. Labs can read thousands of culture plates everyday, and this is currently done manually. The LBT APAS instrument frees up lab staff so they ONLY have to look at the "positive" results (maybe 5 in a thousand).

It does this using proprietary artificial intelligence that is continually added to with every scan globally.

Currently the traditional culture plate reading workflow of a lab has almost no automation worldwide and certainly no diagnostic automation (picture person leaning over microscope peering at a culture plate like in the movies). Only LBT's instrument can automate the diagnostic step of looking at a plate and analysing what's happening.

Labs can choose a competitors $5million dollar end to system (copan wasp) that DOES NOT automatically read culture plates. It's so big you actually have to lay a concrete slab and take up a whole room.

OR they can buy an LBT APAS instrument for $300k that they simply wheel in (its about as big as a photcopier).

There is no device in between the two.

#BULL CASE

They've turned a corner.

After recently signing a US distributor (Thermofisher: biggest distributor of lab equipment in the united states)...

The machines have started to sell.

After only 5 device sales in two years (going it alone during covid with no distributor).....labs are now opening their non-virology related wallets and they have sold 6 instruments in 6 weeks in the US.

They are benefiting from a post-covid tailwind.

Devices cost $300k, cost $100k to build, last 5-7 years, and each diagnostic module used by it earns 30k per year in recurring annual license fees.

The only debt LBT has is the remains of a $4million loan from the Sth Australian government that they are due to complete paying off by 2024 (250k a quarter).

Optionality also seems to be on the cards with the potential development of the instrument for big pharmaceutical clean rooms (where they make pharmaceuticals). The instrument would automate the current manual process of someone actually looking at culture plates to ensure manufacturing rooms are health grade clean. This would take the instrument out of micobiology labs into a far bigger addressable market on an exponential level.

#BEAR CASE

The instrument only provides an evolutionary not a revolutionary leap for improving lab workflows

It's just a big photocopier....lol

Disclosure, I hold IRL.

Another sale of their first in market lab automation instrument to a US microbiology lab.

That's six units in six weeks at 300k a pop (plus recurring annual license fees).

Maybe LBT is turning a corner ?

Time will tell....still very early days sales wise.

Full credit to management for keeping their head above water through covid.

Labs globally had their doors closed for non-virology related purchases...perhaps that has now finally changed.

Throughout covid, LBT quietly kept plugging away expanding their global footprint (securing eu/us distribution deals, setting up support organisations globally to service their new tech, restructuring financially by buying back full ownership of the company from a 50/50 partership to secure 100% of all future revenue.......

I hold IRL.

An absolutely self acknowledged speculative punt on my behalf....

But I'll be a monkeys uncle....they might come good and post their first positive quarter.

Lbt just announced they've sold 5 units (300K each) to Thermo Fisher (united states).

Good start to Thermo Fishers role as the newly appointed US distributor for LBT's Automated Plate Assessment System (APAS).

Long way to go, but interesting stock with price so low.

Step in the right direction with LBT's global footprint expanding.

Perhaps a post-covid tailwind on the cards.