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Last edited 10 months ago
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#Business Model/Strategy
Added 10 months ago

Further to my Rob Milner comment, I thought I'd share an experience getting funds from a bank in Australia starting with M.

I needed an intro and so I approached a broker in Sydney who said he could put me in front of said bank. I arrived in Sydney, spent 30 secs in this guys office and we walked across the road to M. He kindly introduced me, ....this is Nick,,,,Nick this is ....

This was his total contribution that day and on a second visit.

The manager at M asked me if he could visit my facility in Munich as he was going to be in London the following week. I told him, I'd be happy to meet him there, so flew into Germany and met him at the gate to our facility. The location is inside the EADS head office area in Munich (they own Airbus, Euorpean Space and at the time Eurocopter). When we got to our factory my MD in Germany explained what we were doing. He also introduced him to another guy who regularly wandered in to see how we were going. He was a Vice President of EADS and very enthusiastic.

After 30 mins M bank man said, "Ok, I've seen enough, can you walk me out". On the walk back, I asked him "so, what do you think?". His reply was priceless...."appears the bullshit you told me is all true, come round to my office when you're back and we'll put $6m in". The EADS guy had obviously impressed him.

When I got to Sydney, the broker guy fulfilled his escorting job to help me cross the road, I got the money and the turkey sent me a bill for the intro, 5% = $300,000. Easiest money he ever made and after nearly 20 years still sticks in my throat.

#Bear Case
Added one year ago

Interesting Stockhead paid chat by QHL. Makes me so glad I sold all my stock over the years. It's gone a long way over the years to being as unloved as it gets. Burgess mentions that when the NPV drops below $100m then some instos will bail, but when they dropped below $50m then the rest of them bailed.

He obviously hasn't been reading the tea leaves as the only time the valuation was over $100m, he wasn't the MD, I was. And I left in 2007ish. Rob Milner and I had a regular chat in Sydney at SOL. He understood where we were going and believed what I told him.

My point is that when you're unloved then your MD needs to sell the sizzle not the sausage and I suspect neither the sausage or even the onion rings have been getting pushed. The lesson for us all is, if your in a stock that the instos lose faith in, then you should follow them out of the door.

#Business Model/Strategy
Added 2 years ago

QHL previously had a basic manufacturing facility in the US and at the time a JV with a manufacturing partner. But it all un-ravelled over the years. Not sure what competitive advantage they would have in the US as there would be no off-set help as there is in Australia (investment of $400m in F35 opened the door).

The big guys pulled a lot of work back home during COVID and with the down-turn in flights being taken. This will slowly unwind. But there are strong competitors like Spirit and Wright in the US who have more money than God.

One thing nobody seems to have picked up on is the recent multi billion order from AU Government for new C130s. QHL already make the flaps and I would have thought a big offset allowance would get more work on the back of that without the regular hoops top be jumped through.