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$0.220
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#Bull Case
Added 2 weeks ago

New acquisition is a gamechanger. Got in today at 175 and holding strong. Venue data is going to continue to grow, america is opening up, strong contracts in place, revnue growing. Target price 60c in 2 years.

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#Acquisition
Added 2 weeks ago

SKF acquires CrowdVision, US and UK based AI, computer vision and video analytics company focused on airports, stadiums, transportation hubs and large-scale resort hotels and casinos.

CY20 Rev of US$3.1m and ARR of US$1.7m.  EV US$7-8m. CY20 EV/ARR multiple of approx. 4.1-4.7x. Up front cash US$1.0m.  Deferred consideration of US$6-7m payable 3 months following completion payable with a mix of cash and/or SKF shares at SKF’s election.  SKF shares to be issued at no less than $0.20.  Founded 2009.  28 employees.  35+ customers.  13 out of top 30 airports under contract.

Capital raising: $10m @ $0.165 [60.61m shares] 19.6% disc to 5 day VWAP.  SPP of $1m. Canaccord Genuity (Australia) and Bell Potter acted as joint lead managers.

The CY20 EV/ARR multiple of under 5x is not high.  But the business is not profitable and SKF will have to fund the business so it is likely to be running at a NPAT and cashflow loss. 

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#H1FY21 Results 24/2/21
Added 2 months ago

Skyfii delivers 104% growth in operating EBITDA

H FY21 Financial Highlights

  •  1H FY21 Total Operating Revenues of $7.4m, up 9% versus 1H FY20 driven by strong underlying business performance, new customer wins across multiple verticals and the success of Skyfii’s OccupancyNow™ solution.
  •  1H FY21 Operating EBITDA of $1.6m, up 104% on 1H FY20 reflecting the continued focus on profitable growth.
  •  Annualised Recurring Revenue (ARR) exited 1H FY21 at 1 $11.5m.
  •  Strong balance sheet with a cash at bank of $3.4m at 31 December 2020 ($2.1m at 30 June 2020) provides flexibility to continue to drive growth as well as new product development.

DISC: I hold

View Attachment

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#Broker/Analyst Views
Last edited 3 months ago

19-Jan-2021:  Canaccord Genuity: Skifii (SKF): Estimates Revised: North America gaining traction; A$11.5m ARR (~4x FY21e EV/Rev)

Analysts:

  1. Owen Humphries | Analyst | Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Ltd. | ohumphries@cgf.com | +61.2.9263.2702
  2. Seth Hoskin | Analyst | Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Ltd. | shoskin@cgf.com | +61 3 8688 9146
  • Rating: BUY (unchanged)
  • Price Target: A$0.30 (unchanged)
  • SKF-ASX Price: A$0.21
  • 52-Week Range (A$): 0.27 - 0.21
  • Market Cap (A$M): 72.2
  • Shares Out. (M): 343.8
  • Dividend /Shr (A$): 0.00
  • Dividend Yield (%): 0.0
  • Enterprise Value (A$M): 70.1
  • Cash (A$M): 2.1
  • Long-Term Debt (A$): 0.0

--- click on the link above for the full CG report on SKF ---

[I do not hold SKF shares.]

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#1/4ly Report & CC 22/1/21
Added 3 months ago

1/4ly Report Q2 2021 & Conference Call

*Operating Rev $ 4M ~ Up 15% (v Q12021)

*Recurring Revenues $2.8M ~ Up 25%

*ARR ~ $11.5M ( Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) based on contracted recurring revenues as at the end of Q1 FY21 - inclusive of temporary suspensions as a result of COVID-19 & contracted revenues from the acquisition of Blix announced 16th September 2020)

*Cash at Bank 3.4M (at 31/12/2020) ~ up 27%

*Debt Facility $2M ~ $1.5M undrawn

Disc: I hold

https://skyfii.io/investor/announcements/

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#ASX Announcements
Added 3 months ago

Although I remain bullish on this company, there are a couple of things to keep in mind.

- $982,000 of their non-recurring revenue was a government grant for R&D. 

This means that although total revenue looks like pre-covid levels, I doubt the same government incentive will happen this year. This also indicates that there was a severe decline in customer non-recurring revenue from the previous quarter. 

- The light at the end of the tunnel is that recurring-revenue had a significant increase from the prior quarter, indicating the high 'stickiness' of SKF's products. The trouble seems to be around acquiring new customers, hopefully, they can ramp up their marketing to attract a larger market share. 

 

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#ASX Announcement 19/1/21
Added 3 months ago

Skyfii delivers 25% growth in Recurring Revenues as demand for people counting technology grows

Q2 FY21

Highlights

? Recurring Revenues for Q2 FY21 of $2.8m, up 25% vs Q1 FY21 (inclusive of the Blix acquisition)

? Total Operating Revenues for Q2 FY21 of $4.0m, up 15% on the prior quarter (Q1 FY21)

? 1H FY21 Operating EBITDA of $1.5m, representing a 13% increase when compared to 2H FY20

? Annualised Recurring Revenue (ARR) exited Q2 FY21 at $11.5m

? Total Cash Receipts of $3.4m, up 10% on Q2 FY20

? Cash at bank of $3.4m (as at 31st December 2020) up 27% on Q1 FY21, with additional access to a $2m loan facility, of which $1.5m remains undrawn

? Blix acquisition, completed 14th September 2020, has delivered new business wins with Asics, Good Feet & Jo Mercer retail apparel brands

? Strategic partnership with Boingo delivered a five year deal with Metro Washington Airports Authority (USA)

? Strong North America growth securing new contracts with Omaha Zoo, Retail Business Services, Mark Anthony Group & Trent University

? Strong customer retention with key renewals completed with David Jones (AU), The Kooples (FRA), McArthurGlen Retail Outlets (UK), SFMOMA (USA); JCPM Group (BZL), Nuffield Health (UK); AB Nordiska Kompaniet (EU)

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02331632-2A1275653?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

DISC : I hold in RW & Strawman

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#Bull Case
Added 4 months ago

SkyFii uses cloud, mobile technology and Wi-Fi systems which enable bricks-and-mortar venues to become more competitive by better understanding the needs of their diverse types of visitors. Skyfii operates both domestically and internationally (35 different countries).

Although revenue was hit hard during the last quarter of FY20 because of Covid, they have seen a strong rebound in FY21 with many new contract wins during this time. 

The Wi-Fi analytics market was valued at USD 4.28 billion in 2019, and it is expected to reach USD 18.96 billion by 2025. I believe 2020 has emphasised this growth, highlighting the importance of people tracking and venue occupancy monitoring. Skyfii is not profitable yet but is forecasted to break even in 2022, potentially being a major player in the wifi analytics market globally. In FY20 Skyfii achieved a 142% operating EBITDA growth and 44% in total revenue growth from the previous year.

Skyfii recently acquired Blix and Beonic Technologies which have given them considerable market share in the automotive and retail property industries, including over 300 blue-chip companies. 

I see 2 major risks, the first being that it is a highly competitive industry with no major players, the second being potential government regulation around privacy etc. 

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#Broker/Analyst Views
Last edited 7 months ago

18-Sep-2020:  Canaccord Genuity: Estimates Revised: Skyfii Limited: Tuck-in acquisition of Blix ($1m ARR), and return to pre-COVID growth (>+10% qoq revg)

Analysts:  

  • Owen Humphries | Analyst | Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Ltd. | ohumphries@cgf.com | +61.2.9263.2702
  • Seth Hoskin | Analyst | Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Ltd. | shoskin@cgf.com | +61 3 8688 9146

Rating: BUY (unchanged), Price Target: A$0.30 (unchanged), Share Price: A$0.20

Tuck-in acquisition of Blix ($1m ARR), and return to pre-COVID growth (>+10% qoq revg)

  • SKF announced the acquisition of Blix, an Australia-based venue analytics business that specialises in servicing SMB-format retail venues (primarily auto dealerships). Blix has ~50 customers, including Porsche, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Toyota, Country Road, Swarovski, and Watches of Switzerland. SKF expects Blix to report a post-covid annual recurring revenue (ARR) of ~$1.1m and EBITDA to be positive in 12 months, representing an all-in acquisition cost of ~1x ARR ($0.3m upfront, $0.7m deferred [cash or scrip]). While highly accretive at face value, SKF is expecting to crosssell various parts of Blix’s CountSmart technology to its existing global customer footprint.
  • As with all enterprise sales, SKF’s sales momentum slowed in 4Q20a with its key customer segments (shopping malls, airports, stadiums and QSR’s) materially impacted by covid lockdowns. However, the company is expecting to return to its previous growth trajectory (pre-COVID 16x quarters of sequential +10% qoq organic growth) and recently noted its sales pipeline has returned to pre-covid levels (Mar-20 qualified/advanced pipeline $19.3m). We expect this growth to be complemented by further strategic bolt-on acquisitions, with SKF retaining an active global M&A pipeline.
  • The company released OccupancyNow, which enables customers to leverage SKF’s technology to manage covid/re-opening. It is an automated occupancy and social distancing management tool and has already secured a major North American grocery chain as its first customer (>2000 potential venues).
  • SKF's outlook remains positive and it is expecting to deliver “significant double-digit [organic] growth and a positive operating EBITDA result” with “FY21 starting with significant momentum”. SKF exited 4Q20a ARR with >$10m, which is derived from customers (>900x paying customers, >10k venues, >40k devices) subscribing to SKF's IO platform, which currently incorporates information from over 25 data sources (WiFi, people counters, thermal imagery, infrared, POS, etc.) to provide information on visitor information, sales conversion, staff optimization, customer flow and weather impacts on sales.
  • In our view, SKF generates software-like margins and, as such, we believe the stock should be compared to its domestic software peers. On a 3.8x EV/FY21e revenue multiple, the stock remains an outlier, as cloud technology/growth stocks multiples continue to expand globally (US SaaS peers, 11x FY21e EV/rev, +18% revg [CapitalIQ]). Aproaching and passing the critical $20m ARR milestone (FY22), coupled with potentially further accretive bolt-on acquisition in FY21, should see a continued multiple rerating in our view. BUY rating and $0.30ps target price reiterated.

--- click on link above for more ---

Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (TSX: CF)  The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal, independent and objective views about any and all the companies and securities that are the subject of this report discussed herein.

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#4Q20 Update
stale
Added 9 months ago

4Q20 4C Update: Reasonable result considering the impact of COVID.  Cash Receipts grew +33% in FY20.  ARR $10m so is trading at around 5x ARR.  

Rolling out OccupancyNow a new product which helps count and limit the number of shoppers.

Link to today's Investor Briefing:- https://skyfii.io/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Q4-FY2020-Quarterly-Conference-Call.mp3

Cash Receipts $2.97m (+33% yoy) though down on 3Q20. 

FCF: -$491k

Cash: $2.1m

Debt: $0.1m [$1.9m undrawn]

ARR $10m

FY20: Operating Revenue $13.5m (+44%)

Operating EBITDA $2m (+129%)

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#Results Call
stale
Added one year ago
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