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Last edited 12 months ago
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##ThesisBroken
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Added 12 months ago

Today's announcement from Vitura, confirming the shipment of the 2 millionth unit through CanView, indicates a clear slowdown in growth. Connecting the dots, the evidence becomes apparent. 

The last milestone of the millionth unit was achieved a year ago, with a run rate of approximately 1 million units per year already established then. This is consistent with the release from December 2022, revealing sales of nearly 215,000 units in the first quarter of FY2023 alone, suggesting they were already there at the time, and now not much as changed. 

Also, this year's release lacks the useful revenue figures and forecasts provided in the previous update. The absence of these key metrics raises concerns and diminishes the clarity around Vitura's financial performance. There were positive aspects from the release, such as an increased product count (280 vs. 200) and a successful transition to CanView 2.0. However my thesis for them was based primarily on growth; I was assuming sustained growth above 20% minimum. This is now compromised.

The straw that broke the camel’s back for me though was the acquisition of Doctors on Demand. What the f**k is that all about? Isn’t there someone on that board or the leadership team that’s seen that no Telehealth company out there seems to be able to make the business model work? 

The acquisition, coupled with the growth stagnation, led to my decision to divest. 

Another one to add to my pile of mistakes. You live and you learn. On to the next one. 

#Full Year Comments
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Added one year ago

Slowly coming back to life with our newborn now past the 4 weeks mark. I've been dead slow in turning into reporting season.

As always, @Vandelay covers this one very well. Grateful to you for sharing the insights from the results call which I missed.

The big points seems to have been covered here. In short, results looking amazing at quick glance, and a little less amazing if you dig deeper into them.

I put my thoughts on the full year report in my article this week : https://www.goforgrowth.co/p/10-growers-in-fy23-part-1

The half on half decline is worrying, but management may be honest when they attribute this to pivot to full online and closure of clinics. Only time will tell here.

Also, question for everyone else here; do you know anyone that uses their platform? I have a few friends that are into their cannabis, and every time I ask what service they use, I don’t hear Cannadoc. I hear Cannatrek, HelloMello, Polln, and Honahlee, balnce, etc... It seems to me competitors are growing fast. I also mention this in the article.

I hold and am happy with the results, but I’m not rushing to add to the position too quickly, I’d love to see proof that they can grow again.