Dominator
Dominator
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Voted on a valuation for Ava Risk Group Limited by Rapstar
24 hours ago
Justification
UPDATE FOLLOWING H! results, and FFT release on 12/02/21. I have adjusted my valuation down, due to a lack of clarity around the technology division sales pipeline beyond (FY2021). Todays announcement was good news, but doesn't go anywhere near to filling the IMOD contract hole. AVA Group formed from a myriad of businesses, resulting in years of consolidation, and corporate activity. It has two main business lines - 1) Technology Division, consisting Future Fibres business, uniquely placed to monitor communications infrastructure and materials handling systems, and the BGT systems, which is access & identity control systems. Growing at circa 45% pa currently, at GMs of 70% or so. But historically, growth has been patchy / lumpy. 2) Services division - logistics business for precious metals and banknotes. Growth has accelerated to +40% pa currently, at GMs of 32% (improving). Under new management, the AVA seems to have got its act together (although Mr Bloomfield is an unknown quantity to me anyway) with the following outcomes: 1) Revenue growth of 70% in H1,2021, with costs remaining effectively flat. 2) $12 million EBITDA for half. up 450% on pcp. 4) with IMOD contract visibility forecast FY2021 Earnings per share: 5 cents (up form my previous forecast of 4 cents) Furthermore, the Services division, is up for sale, with management incentivised to sell the business prior to July 2021 (extended - likely due to the fact they believe they can get a higher price with 9 months of further growth). It is likely to be sold for $65 m. After incentives, shareholders will end up with $40-45 M - But this depends on management, and what they decide to do with the cash. I have updated my valuation, based on a deceleration of revenue growth in FY2022, and an EPS of 5.1 c per share in FY 2023. At a PE of 15, this equates to 76 cents per share (discounting this to present value @ 12%, I come up with a valuation of 55 cents per share). This may look conservative if the FFT business converts its early promise into further high margin contracts. If it can deliver some multi-year contracts, or its SAAS business gains traction, AVA could experience a re-rating. I'll be watching (and hoping) for some big contract wins for its Aurora IQ offering over the next 6 months. This valuation is dependant on the performance of the new CEO and his executive team, who need to maintain sales momentum, and build the ales pipeline into FY2022 and beyond, and continue to improve their SAAS offerings. Time will tell. Although the CEO is incentivised to go on an acquisition spree (incentives are based on EBITDA growth) - I hope this does not happen, as it has great organic growth opportunities. Any acquisition for me would be a red flag.
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Voted on a valuation for MFF Capital Investments Limited by Bear77
2 days ago
Justification
22-Feb-2021: MFF advises that its approximate weekly NTA per share as at Friday 19 February 2021 was $2.798 pre-tax (cum 3.0 cents per share fully franked interim dividend)² (30 June 2020 $2.809), and $2.470 post-tax¹. Notes: 1. Net tax liabilities are current tax liabilities and deferred tax liabilities, less tax assets. 2. Figures are cum interim dividend 3.0 cents per share fully franked, dividend ex-date 23 April 2021 and payable 14 May 2021. Net cash shown as a percentage of investment assets and net cash, was approximately 2.1% at 19 February 2021. --- ends --- That's a LOT less cash than they were holding last year! I note that a week earlier, their 12-Feb-2021 pre-tax NTA was $2.854, so I can see why you might value them at $2.85, but I tend to go with the last reported NTA, which in this case is a smidge under $2.80. Also, virtually all of the globally-focussed LICs we have to choose from on the ASX are all trading at NTA discounts currently. Some are closer to their NTA than others, but it's not uncommon to have 10% to 20% discounts (to NTA) in their share prices. The LICs with good premiums (to NTA) in their SPs all have a domestic (Australian) focus as well as strong histories of paying good dividends (like WAX). We have a wide range of choices in the globally-focussed LIC space, and they are almost all trading at various discounts to their respective pre-tax NTA. Except for WAM Global (WGB) which has recently moved to an NTA-premium. There might be one or two others, but I am not aware of them. MGF, MHH, PIA, PAI, EAI, VG1, VG8, AIB, TGG, WQG, TGF, RF1, PAF, PGF, PMC, GFL, GVF, FGG, FPC, LSF and APL are ALL trading at various discounts to their last reported pre-tax NTA. Some of the discounts are quite large. MFF closed on Friday 26-Feb-2021 at $2.55, being 8.86% below their last reported pre-tax NTA, being $2.798 on 19-Feb-2021. That's one of the smaller discounts. I don't mind MFF's top portfolio positions. I'll post a straw on those in a minute. However, I'm not holding MFF currently. My preferred pics in this space (for global exposure via ASX-listed LICs) are FGG, WQG, WGB, MGF & MHH, and for purely Asian exposure, EAI. I hold all of those except FGG currently. I also hold CDM which has a blend of Australian and international shares in their portfolio. I don't mind MFF, and I do follow Chris Mackay (the PM of MFF), but I rate his ex-business partner Hamish Douglass a lot more highly, hence I'm invested in two of the funds Douglass manages (MGF and MHH). With tech stocks being on the nose a little lately, perhaps Chris's MFF could outperform Hamish's tech-heavy Magellan funds, at least in the short term. However, looking longer-term, I'd back Hamish (and I do). He's usually the smartest guy in the room - any room.
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Voted on a valuation for Wesfarmers Limited by BavanG
2 days ago
Justification
Valuation is based on a 12-month Forward-looking PE. Historic (FY19-21YTD) PE Trading Multiples (volume-weighted) Min= 16.2x Quartile 1= 18.5x Median =22.9x Quartile 3= 24.6x Max =32.7x FY21 EPS Forecast = $2.00 Apply the Median forward-PE Multiple (22.9x) Valuation = $45.87
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Voted on a valuation for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited by BavanG
2 days ago
Justification
Valuation is based on a 12-month Forward-looking PE. Historic (FY19-21YTD) PE Trading Multiples (volume-weighted) Min= 27.7x Quartile 1= 31.1x Median =33.1x Quartile 3= 35.9x Max =60.5x FY21 EPS Forecast = $0.912 (Simply Wall Street) Apply the Median forward-PE Multiple (33.1) Valuation = $30.19
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Voted on a valuation for Appen Limited by Strawman
2 days ago
Justification
Keeping this simple. A market leading company with great underlying growth, strong competitive advantages and nice economics. Growth wasnt great in FY20, but allowing for the covid impact the broader outlook still seems ok to me. Management calling for 18-28% growth in EBITDA for FY21. I'm assuming they can sustain ~15%pa top line growth, on average, over the next 3-5 years at least. I'll give that a EV/EBITDA ratio of 20, using FY21 guidance of $125m to get $20.62. That a P/S of 4.3 on FY20 results.
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