Rick
Rick
"You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right" - Buffet
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Voted on a straw in #FY21 Results for Pushpay Holdings Limited by Strawman
4 hours ago
#FY21 Results

Pushpay has reported 39% revenue growth for FY21 (US$181.1m), which almost doubled the net profit (US$31.2m). EBITDAF came in at US$58.9m -- at the top end of their increased guidance for between US$56-60m.

The acquisition of Community Church Builder was a big part of this.

Once again, the operating margin increased, now sitting at 34% (up from 31%) as the business scales.

Operating cash flow saw a 145% improvement, allowing the company to fully repay the debt taken on to acquire Community Church Builder.

For the FY22 year, PushPay said it is expecting an EBITDAF of $US64-69m -- about 12% growth at the midpoint. That's partly subdued due to the US$6-8m investment into the Catholic segment.

That's perhaps a bit lower than the market would have liked, and I think there's also likely to be some concern over the sluggish pace of customer growth -- with customer numbers increasing just 2% (the growth is largely explained by increasing revenue per customer).

On a per share basis, and using a USD/AUD exchange of 78c, Pushpay reported an EPS of 3.62cps, which puts shares on a PE of ~41.

I still think that's relatively good value given they are expecting double digit growth, a strong balance sheet and cash flows and with upside potential into new segments.

Results presentation can be viewed here

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Voted on a straw in #Significant Director Purchases for Humm Group Limited by Storge
18 hours ago
#Significant Director Purchases

Two directors purchase on market with Abercrombie purchasing over $1m in shares at $0.92.  He has close to 100m shares already.

Obviously, the directors consider the shares to be undervalued.

DIRECTOR TRANSACTIONS

6 May 21: Muir +29,544 for $28,921 [28,644]

6 May 21: Abercrombie +135,105 for $121,795 [31.80m; 66.68m]

6 May 21: Abercrombie +1m for $920,616 [31.66m; 66.68m]

23 Mar 21: Wylie +495,000 @ $0.98 for $485,397 [27.32m]

Edited a straw in #Short squeeze for KGN? for Kogan.com Limited
2 days ago
#Short squeeze for KGN?

Just a quick update to clarify and expand on a few points:

  1. I am very bullish on Kogan at the current price
  2. A short squeeze would  be good news for Investors
  3. Shorters are underestimating the upside to Kogan and are likely to take a bit hit as they are forced to close out on shorted stock (over 9%)
  4. I think there could be a 40% spike in the share price as Kogan corrects back to fair value.

Did you know that Kogan is number 5 most most shorted stock on the ASX (shortman.com.au) increasing from 1.4% shorted in Jan 2021 to over 9% shorted now (See chart below).

Despite strong business growth (Revenue up 65% and Gross Profit up 54%), the market was not impressed by its inventory management prior Christmas and early this year which resulted in high storage and demurrage fees. This combined with inflated product costs prior to Christmas resulted in a 24% drop in adjusted EBITA.

Is this just growing pains for Kogan, or is it something more long term? I think it’s just growing pains and we could see a short squeeze when the next good news comes through.

Disc. Hold KGN and adding.

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Voted on a straw in #Risks for Nickel Mines Limited by edgescape
2 days ago
#Risks

Tsingshan pulls the matte out from under nickel's rally

China's Tsingshan Holding has found a way of producing Nickel Matte from NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) that could be used to produce Nickel Sulphate and have signed a few supply deals with EV manufacturers in China. This has sent the prices of Nickel and Nickel Sulphate diving.

This development is a potential gamechanger in Nickel Sulphate supply but it is at the expense of increased carbon emissions. Delivery of Nickel Matte from Tsingshan expected to flood the market in October 2021.

Despite these points, shares in most nickel sulphate producers and explorers dived including IGO (with exception of AOU which suddenly rallied at the end of the day -  they have a history of going overboard on their ASX announcements to move their stock!).

However I believe NIC is talking up on this development as they are large producer of NPI.

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Voted on a straw in #Director SPP purchase for PayGroup Limited by Storge
2 days ago
#Director SPP purchase

Good to see the chairman of PYG, Ian Basser take up his full Share Purchase plan entitlement of $30,000 at $0.56.

The current price of $0.52 is below the SPP price.

The company has made a series of acquisitions now and has raised capital multiple times. 

DIRECTOR TRANSACTIONS

10 May 21: Fagan +4,465 @ $0.56 [289,214] SPP

10 May 21: Basser +53,572 @ $0.56 for $30k  [554,873; 58,843] SPP