XRef's primary business is providing a platform for employers to reference check prospective employees. The reference check is done online so referees can complete it when it suits them, there's potentially less delivery/interpretation bias and its easier to get references from overseas employers. I suppose the downside for employers is there's less opportunity to 'look them in the eye' or drill down further on an answer.
They seem to be well liked by their customers (https://www.capterra.com.au/software/157672/xref and https://www.g2.com/products/xref-xref/reviews) and with that positive sentiment I can see how they could get network effects from users from one company moving to another employer and how referees themselves could see the benefit of the product. Having said that it's growing sales but only at a modest rate. I think you have to come to a decision about the extent to which covid is hurting its sales and if you feel it is you could then see how those might accelerate after the global economy recovers.
The second half of this Coffee Microcaps meeting is worth looking at. https://youtu.be/GT93XJg5XK8
- Potential for revenues to sharply benefit from global recovery
- Steep reduction in cost base with management targeting Q4 21 breakeven . I think that is likely to be a catalyst for SP inflection.
- Cashflows should lead revenues given their model is to sell 'credits' to companies, which then don't get recognised as revenue until they're utilised i.e. a prospective employee is reference checked.
- State they are developing and implementing new products at a faster rate than any time in their history.
- Is the board sacrificing long term growth for short term incentives? There are a lot of options expiring over the next few years at around 70 cents and the question has to be asked whether the focus on cost reduction is having a longer term impact on sales.
- Have adopted a per use model, which will expose them to cyclicality and is going against the current trend towards maximising ARR. Of course that works both ways and if you accept the global recovery argument their model could work to their advantage over the next couple of years.
- SP - the technicals are horrible. It's been sold off on low volumes for the last couple of months and many would advise waiting, accepting you'll miss the bottom but buying with confidence that you have volume and momentum on your side.
The SP outcomes for this one are diverse and depending on how bullish or bearish I'm feeling I can get a DCF to give me a SP anywhere between something (not a given for all companies) and $1. Overall I'm confident enough that it has a feasible product, is very near being cashflow positive and that the risk/reward ratio is skewed such that the downside is limited and the upside is significant. I've taken a position at 24 cents.