elpaso96
elpaso96
Curious ASX investor building a portfolio mix of emerging micro/small cap companies with international commercial potential and medium/large cap businesses that have fortress balance sheets to survive future downturns.
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Added a straw in #Sell Down Decision for Alcidion Group Limited
2 days ago
#Sell Down Decision

My valuation of $0.37 considers revenue growth of 25% CAGR and now given the current valuation, I will be selling. The valuation assume a conservative scenario that have not materialise. Hence, risk-return for me is to sell down and buy back at lower valuations.

Please bear in mind, I have been wrong countless times, so take it with a grain of lithium :D Case in point; I sold Pointerra, Family Zone, Dropsuite and Vmoto during the last year pandemic selloff. All of which have gone up. If you held, you would be having enormous return. Same can be said for not buying Afterpay at $9. 

I would not be surprised to see Alcidion reach $500M valuation. For me, the risk-reward not in my favour. 

DYOR

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Edited a straw in #Valuation Scenario Analysis for Cluey Ltd
2 days ago
#Valuation Scenario Analysis

See Valuation section. 

Range of possible outcomes considering the risk. I think changing operating margins should be considered, as we do not know how sustainable the margins would be long term.  

Highlighted in yellow are my assumptions for a valuation of $185M or $2.25 per share. 

Edited a straw in #Valuation Scenario Analysis for Cluey Ltd
2 days ago
#Valuation Scenario Analysis

See Valuation section. 

Range of possible outcomes considering the risk. I think changing operating margins should be considered, as we do not know how sustainable the margins would be long term.  

Highlighted in yellow are my assumptions for a valuation of $185M or $2.25 per share. 

Edited a straw in #Valuation Scenario Analysis for Cluey Ltd
2 days ago
#Valuation Scenario Analysis

See Valuation section. 

Range of possible outcomes considering the risk. I think changing operating margins should be considered, as we do not know how sustainable the margins would be long term.  

Highlighted in yellow are my assumptions for a valuation of $185M or $2.25 per share. 

Added a straw in #Valuation Scenario Analysis for Cluey Ltd
2 days ago
#Valuation Scenario Analysis

See Valuation section. 

Range of possible outcomes considering the risk. I think changing operating margins should be considered, as we do not know how sustainable the margins would be long term.  

Highlighted in yellow are my assumptions for a valuation of $185M or $2.25 per share.