Forum Topics FBR FBR Hit or Shit?

Pinned straw:

Last edited a month ago

I spent a few hours looking at Fastbrick today. There I said it. Judge me all you like but I feel better having shared that.

I don't really know what compelled me but I'm pretty sure @lastever cops some of the blame. I want to shoot myself for saying this but it could have been worse. Don't get me wrong, looking back it's been an enormous pile of choice excrement, whose greatness at torching cash and diluting shareholders is its singular most impressive feature. Just take a look at this graph of share capital, operating cash and earnings over the last decade.

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Free cash is even worse! It's the classic meme stock. About 2 minutes of the time I spent looking at it I spent on HC, and I needed to get hosed down after. But...but...but...the robot is rad. No, it really is! Some of the Transformers are shitter than this thing. Obviously not Optimus Prime, but it's way cooler than Wheelie and Broadside. You can see it working here.

Also, it's doing a paid proof of concept in the US with CRH Ventures, who are what is officially known is the biz as A Player. Now even if they pass all the milestones they will only receive $2 million, which this very generously paid management team can spend on a coffee run. But successful end of the POC triggers an option period, which if triggered would lead to the establishment of a JV with CRH, funding for the JV and a path to up to 300 of the next gen Hadrian X trucks being ordered. That represents income circa $700 million in the US alone. That's a lot of coffee runs!

What I'm not sure of is what the incentive is for builders. Is it going to be cheaper than using labour? Or is the proposition more around time savings and availability? Or is it all of the above. What are unit economics? Will they build and operate or licence it out? Do I care enough to find out?

@Strawman do you think we could ask them in? I know, I hate me too!

Strawman
Added a month ago

Ha, I'd frame it more as open mindedness and a recognition that the past is no guarantee of the future @Noddy74

Besides, I already did a little while back! (but got no response..) I'll try again. They may be more keen now that there's been some progress.

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lastever
Added a month ago

That's hilarious @Noddy74 and I am happy to take the blame. And to misquote Joe Rogan, don't read the comments section on Hot Copper. What a clown show.

I agree with your take. I may well eat a sandwich here, but I heard an aside from the Brickworks CEO, looked at the thing, listened to the FBR CEO (good life story) and thought, what a cool machine. And to be clear, I have no idea what I'm doing.

Reading between the lines, they couldn't get venture capital so they used venture ASX in 2016 and have been pissing people off ever since. Recently, they have been paying themselves outrageously, and that is a yellow flag. They dream big, and have been at this for two decades.

The incentive for builders: It's fast, it's clean, and it's predictable. And maybe people who haven't been offering bricks can do bricks again. No mess on site, no brick wastage, no need to coordinate bricks and brickies (who are a dying breed), lock in your price and your day ahead of time, get it done in a day. It would be risky to predict trends but people who can't afford a brick house might opt for one if the price came down again. These new stick and tin builds are horrible for insulation efficiency. But would it be cheaper, that depends on....

Unit economics: This is an economies of scale play and they appear to be trying to figure that out themselves. They need bulk home builders, where each truck can do a house a day and just stay busy. They have been shopping this thing in the Middle East, Mexico and now Florida with, as you said, A player interest, and Florida is where bulk home builders are a thing. I also wonder if they could end up doing road embankments and things like that.

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Karmast
Added a month ago

I admire your curiosity and open minded approach @Strawman , @Noddy74 and @lastever

For me, based on what's currently known or knowable, plus 10 years now of listed history, it's a quick filter for me -

  • Do I need a company like this in my portfolio to achieve my long term goals? NO
  • Do I need to jump over a hurdle like this? NO
  • Do I have any competency or edge in assessing their chances of improving results dramatically and rapidly? NO


So, I move on and spend the time looking at other businesses that are a maybe or yes on the above questions...


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Strawman
Added a month ago

I hear that @Karmast

A lot would need to change before I put any money on the line.

But, you know, they have a robot! That's got to count for something, right? ;)

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Scoonie
Added a month ago

Interesting machine and comments. Having spent a few years in the building trade, every builder is in favour of using less bricks and bricklayers. But people like brick house.  In commercial builds tilt slabs (build the floor slab and then use it to cast the wall slabs which are then lifted by crane into place) have overtaken most bricklaying.  In domestic construction there is the cost aspect of bricklaying and the other is the availability and management of trades - brickies being notorious.  As one work colleague once succinctly put it: “They just hate their job and let you know it.”    However I am sure there are many exceptions.

When I look at the video of Hadrian in operation I was very impressed. However, my reservations are:

  • I note they are laying what looks to be like a 100mm wide block. You would need to put down about five standard bricks to one of these. So it would seem the machine operates most efficiently on blocks. This is a subset of masonry laying.  
  • I note the completed house has been rendered which sort of negates the whole idea of bricklaying, and especially high quality architectural bricklaying.
  • Looks like you need a vacant lot next door to site the machine. And a flat one.  So would think Hadrian is suited to a new flat subdivisions where the developer is doing all the builds. In Australia, lots in new subdivisions are typically sold to individual families and then they go off and get their own “project homes”. Difficult to scale Hadrian in this piecemeal environment.
  • To keep the machine steady, do you need to put down concrete footings of some type?  
  •  Accuracy in positioning the block needs to be within a few mm. How does the machine perform in say the East Coast of NSW in the windy month of August?
  • In the biggest market construction market, the US bricks are just not as popular as in Australia.
  • Looks as though you still need a “brickies labourer” to keep the machine fed with blocks and mortar and a skilled machine operator.
  • People like different brick styles – part of this how the mortar joint is treated.  Hadrian looks as though it can only do a ’flush joint” not the popular “round iron” or other joint types.


Not to take away from the tremendous technical achievement the people behind Hadrian have accomplished.  Don’t know anything about the business or the people behind it - but wonderful to see Aussies having a go!  

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GazD
Added a month ago

@Scoonie fantastic to get insights from someone with experience in the industry. Feels like it’s going to be a relatively niche technology. Can only really see it working where a developer decides they’re going to go with it for a large number of houses and the unit economics might stack up… I don’t have the knowledge of the industry to back it or not and I take your insights on board… too hard!

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Bushmanpat
Added a month ago

@Scoonie I also thought it would be limited in the sites it could work on, but it was in the street for part of that video. I also think that with a big reach, perhaps bigger than the one in the video, this would do steeper sites, where the blocks could be delivered and laid from street level. I think one major advantage would be multistorey as this would negate the need for scaffolding.

However, I think the real gain will be when the building, or entire development of say, 100 buildings, is designed with HadrianX in mind.

But at this stage, I'm happy to get my FBR exposure through BKW, who are a major shareholder.

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