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#Hit or Shit?
Last edited a month ago

I spent a few hours looking at Fastbrick today. There I said it. Judge me all you like but I feel better having shared that.

I don't really know what compelled me but I'm pretty sure @lastever cops some of the blame. I want to shoot myself for saying this but it could have been worse. Don't get me wrong, looking back it's been an enormous pile of choice excrement, whose greatness at torching cash and diluting shareholders is its singular most impressive feature. Just take a look at this graph of share capital, operating cash and earnings over the last decade.

1b39ffb7d217090dbb6661293cb1f3f2aaa0ea.png

Free cash is even worse! It's the classic meme stock. About 2 minutes of the time I spent looking at it I spent on HC, and I needed to get hosed down after. But...but...but...the robot is rad. No, it really is! Some of the Transformers are shitter than this thing. Obviously not Optimus Prime, but it's way cooler than Wheelie and Broadside. You can see it working here.

Also, it's doing a paid proof of concept in the US with CRH Ventures, who are what is officially known is the biz as A Player. Now even if they pass all the milestones they will only receive $2 million, which this very generously paid management team can spend on a coffee run. But successful end of the POC triggers an option period, which if triggered would lead to the establishment of a JV with CRH, funding for the JV and a path to up to 300 of the next gen Hadrian X trucks being ordered. That represents income circa $700 million in the US alone. That's a lot of coffee runs!

What I'm not sure of is what the incentive is for builders. Is it going to be cheaper than using labour? Or is the proposition more around time savings and availability? Or is it all of the above. What are unit economics? Will they build and operate or licence it out? Do I care enough to find out?

@Strawman do you think we could ask them in? I know, I hate me too!