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#Hit or Shit?
Last edited 3 months ago

It is clear that disruption is coming to the industry, particularly in high wage countries like Australia. The question isn’t if, but rather when. I could see it starting any time in the next 25 years, though I’d guess it starts within 10-15 years. There will still be a place for traditional construction workers, particularly in renovations. It’s also clear that we are at the very earliest stages of this. This has the potential to be a gamechanger for housing prices worldwide - I think it is likely to be a worldwide industry. The operating leverage in this business once it gets going will also be nuts (once you have one robot, two is easy). 

The question is what are the winners? Will there be one or multiple? Given the advantages in various types of building materials, the different specialisation needed to work with this various materials, and the investment required to make this happen (at least at the moment), I could see this as an area where several winners emerging.


So I guess my questions boils down to whether this is the company that will benefit from these changes.


  • How long is it going to take before this major disruptive change happens to the industry? 
  • What are the adjacent competitors to robotic bricklaying (such as 3d printing) - what are the comparative advantages? 
  • Are there any bricklaying robot company competitors? Are they better positioned? 
  • Is this company going to be able to sustain the capital investment required to get the robot to the point where it is economic? (Given they have institutional investors like brickworks, they may be able to) 
  • Is this the time when we are going to get big paybacks? Or is it later?


An interesting youtube on 3d printing. I think a lot of the criticisms here will be solved in time, or with further adoption. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhAwPFIUF_4


3d printing used in housing in NSW

https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/construction-begins-on-nsws-first-3d-printed-social-housing-project