Forum Topics 360 360 So little chat...

Pinned straw:

Added a month ago

With the notable exception of @raymon68 this stock seems to get no love on SM. I've held for a while IRL and watched it grow and an impressive rate to the point where it now has 13% penetration of the US smartphone carrying population. It's financials are rapidly tilting towards profitability and with the huge number of people now using the app, opportunities for monetization seem everywhere...

I've always held back a little on the oft raised concern 'is this business simply going to become Apple's feature' but I think that risk is decreasing with time. It now seems more likely it will continue to be a standalone function and anecdotally I hear more and more people using the app. Tailwinds exist in the shittiness of the world unfortunately and people's desire to keep an eye on loved ones...

How to value such a business... I think they could easily be sitting on a 100mil net profit in 2029 which on a PE of 25 would see them 2.5 Bil. Funnily enough that discounts back roughly to 1.5 bil now which is where they sit... ?fairly valued?

mikebrisy
Added a month ago

@GazD well done to all who saw the potential and backed it.

I've given it a cursory look on several occasions over the last 5 years, and just couldn't get excited about it to do the next level of research or even take a small position.

Just shows how wrong you can be! If it keeps going the way it is, then its going to start throwing off some serious cash.

Part of the issue for me, is that I couldn't get excited about the product. We'd never use technology in that way in our family. In the consumer space, I tend to invest in products that I end up believing in and often buying myself. (So, $BRG (Held) - coffee machine, air fryer, kettle, waffle iron ... ; $NCK (Held) - office armchair; ... $SUL (previously held) ... the whole lot! ).

I'm sure that bias has been detrimental to me as an investor, but there it is.

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Strawman
Added a month ago

The same thing held me back @mikebrisy, and, as @GazD points out, the worry that their offering just becomes a commodified feature of Apple/Android.

But, the growth in active users and revenue definitely says something.

One gripe: it's a bit cute to ignore almost $11m in stock based compensation when talking about underlying EBITDA/profit. Factor that in, and profit and EBITDA look like they are getting worse -- at least for the latest quarter, but also for the latest full financial year.

Those costs are very real.

Still, there's no denying it's been a good performer from a share price perspective: shares are up >4x since listing in 2019 and 3x since the start of the year. Well done to shareholders, but a 10x-plus price to sales makes it additionally tough for me to get excited.

Of course, they could push a lot harder on things like data monetisation, advertising and subscriptions -- which they intend to do -- so maybe that multiple drops quickly?

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GazD
Added a month ago

@Strawman the multiple kind of has to drop quickly for the current valuation to be semi reasonable but I believe it will. Great point about stock based comp.

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Mujo
Added a month ago

It’s definitely a fundie favourite at the moment.

The argument i’ve heard as to why it won’t be commoditised by apple/android is it is cross platform - ie one family member may have android and another apple etc. Again not so sure about that but guess could be right.

Supposedly the tracking is two way as in the kids can track their parents too. All sounds creepy to me but guess what you get used too.

In the US it’s bundled with the equivalent of NRMA and hence the take up is quite strong. Apparently been in the top 5 of all apps on download which is quite an achievement.

The run last few months is because the founder finally agreed to allow advertising for free users hence why they expect so much growth.

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thunderhead
Added a month ago

I am in the same boat as @mikebrisy, and I am astounded at how well it has performed (both operationally and share-price wise).

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GazD
Added a month ago

I hadn’t heard the cross platfom argument before (apple vs android) but makes some sense.

I also remember years ago when I first invested some of the big players had abandoned their plans for a similar product. Doesn’t mean they couldn’t change their minds but the larger the number of users the larger the network effect the greater the moat I guess

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occy
Added a month ago

I definitely find it creepy too. However observing the campaign being run by the LNP for the upcoming state election here in Qld about our 'crime epidemic', particuarly by 'out of control youth' run in tandem with scare mongering by the only newspaper in the state 'The Courier Mail', it is easy to see why such products like Life360 will continue to grow in popularity.


Meanwhile the police came out several months ago saying youth crime has been steadily decreasing year on year going on 20 years but there was an uptick by 2.7% last year which was reported by the Courier as an 'alarming spike'. I wouldn't be too happy if I was returning 2.7% on my portfolio return a year.


Anyway sorry, bit of a rant and am not saying not to be safe but I find it infuriating that it's being made out as if you can't safely walk down the street without something nefarious happening and people buy into that fear.

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GazD
Added a month ago

@mikebrisy and @occy i can see the creepy side. Also interesting to hear how you’ve invested in those retail products you use (and probably value) @mikebrisy . As a father of three young girls I’m pretty sure we’ll be using this in a few years not to be creepy but more for practical reasons and I believe the world is probalistically safe @occy but when it comes to my children I’m happy to take the reassurance and practical benefits of knowing where the members of the team are!

So coming full circle @mikebrisy maybe I invested as a (future) customer just like you’ve always done…

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