Forum Topics VBTC VBTC VBTC valuation

Pinned valuation:

Added 4 months ago
Justification
  • US economy remains resilient, with a strong private sector balance sheet (the wealth 30% anyway).
  • Fed is asymmetrically dovish, kowtowing to fiscal dominance by artificially stimulating demand for US Treasurys amid explosive growth in US federal deficit.
  • Weakening USD should accelerate dollar recycling and provide China scope to support their flagging economy with stimulus.
  • US fiscal impulse and treasury's financing policy are getting increasingly positive in Q4 ahead of $700 Bn spenddown of the US TGA in Q1 2025.
  • Trump election may drive euphoria in the short term, but his policies risk stagflation in the medium term (bad for $BTC)
  • NEAR TERM RISK: Tight Democrat election win could lead to civil unrest, as Trump and MAGA unlikely to accept result. Long term, civil unrest may boost use case / adoption.


My April 2025 $BTC target: $125 K USD

Strawman
Added 4 months ago

Didn't realise you were so bearish @Rapstar ;)

Seriously though, could easily see that target hit by your deadline. With enough speculative fervor -- especially with ETFs and instos in the mix this time around, and the macro themes you mention -- it could get pretty wild next cycle.

I struggle to put an exact target on this thing, but I'm a holder so long as adoption grows -- specifically, increasing number of people/corporations/institutions/sovereigns use it as a store of value. (Medium of exchange/payments, platform integrations, DeFi etc will likely lag this initial use case)

That trend, if it continues, will tend to overlap with periods of increased speculation, which will continue to drive repeated booms & busts (albeit with higher-highs and higher-lows along the way). Which will make this such a diabolically hard thing to trade.

So, I keep it simple, adoption go up = hold. Adoption stalls/falls = sell

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Karmast
Added a month ago

@Strawman for the benefit of the “newbie” BTC investors, where is the best place/s to track/follow the adoption rates you mention?

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Strawman
Added a month ago

Hi @Karmast -- sorry for the slow reply.

Here’s a list of websites you can track adoption metrics:

On-Chain Metrics

  1. Glassnode - Comprehensive on-chain data, including active addresses, UTXOs, and HODL waves.
  2. CryptoQuant - Real-time insights on supply, demand, and market flows.
  3. Coin Metrics - Data for analyzing blockchain networks and market trends.

Market Data

  1. CoinMarketCap - Market capitalization, price, and trading volumes.
  2. Messari - Detailed market research and Bitcoin adoption reports.
  3. Nomics - Transparent crypto market data and trends.

Mining Metrics

  1. BTC.com - Mining pool statistics, hashrate, and block data.
  2. MiningPoolStats - Insights into mining pools and network decentralization.

Lightning Network

  1. Amboss Space - Tracks Lightning Network capacity and node activity.
  2. 1ML - Comprehensive data on Lightning Network channels and nodes.

Adoption and Real-World Integration

  1. CoinMap - Global map of merchants accepting Bitcoin.
  2. BitPay Statistics - Insights into Bitcoin payment processing trends.
  3. Bitcoin Treasuries - Tracks institutional Bitcoin holdings.

Social and Sentiment Metrics

  1. Google Trends - Tracks Bitcoin-related search interest over time.
  2. LunarCrush - Social sentiment and activity for Bitcoin.


Price is also an indicator. But i like to focus on transaction count and value, non-zero wallet addresses and UTXO counts, and hashrate


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Karmast
Added a month ago

Many thanks @Strawman and seems I have some more digging to do!

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lowway
Added a month ago

Or is that mining to do @Karmast ????

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thunderhead
Added a month ago

We really need a “bookmark posts” feature or the like, so we can catalogue great compilations like this!

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