Didn't realise you were so bearish @Rapstar ;)

Seriously though, could easily see that target hit by your deadline. With enough speculative fervor -- especially with ETFs and instos in the mix this time around, and the macro themes you mention -- it could get pretty wild next cycle.

I struggle to put an exact target on this thing, but I'm a holder so long as adoption grows -- specifically, increasing number of people/corporations/institutions/sovereigns use it as a store of value. (Medium of exchange/payments, platform integrations, DeFi etc will likely lag this initial use case)

That trend, if it continues, will tend to overlap with periods of increased speculation, which will continue to drive repeated booms & busts (albeit with higher-highs and higher-lows along the way). Which will make this such a diabolically hard thing to trade.

So, I keep it simple, adoption go up = hold. Adoption stalls/falls = sell