Forum Topics WTC WTC Press

Pinned straw:

Last edited 2 months ago

RW has settled the court case.

I believe that, like a crash of thunder, that clears the air. Yes, there will be aftershocks and questions about key man risk and behaviour relevant to the business will remain. But I think this fundamentally resolves several questions.

I'm not condoing the behaviour. It's none of my business, And I don't know the full facts.

Accordingly, I have re-initiated a 5% RL positon at $106 and am leaving my p50% estimate of valuation at $103 unchanged until the next results.

Rock on.

Disc: Held in RL


P.S. Discussion with Board:

Dammery: Option 1 ..., Option 2 ..., or Option 3 - Just make it go away.

RW: Oh, Okay then, I'll take Option 3.

Chagsy
Added 2 months ago

Morningstar's take on the matter. I like the probabilistic reasoning:

We lower our fair value estimate for narrow-moat WiseTech by 5% to AUD 109 per share given media reports of alleged inappropriate behavior by CEO Richard White. We estimate that the replacement of White as CEO would lower the value of WiseTech shares by around 20% to AUD 90 per share, and we ascribe a 25% probability of this happening. Our fair value for WiseTech, with White remaining at the helm, remains at AUD 115 per share.

We think WiseTech has been managed exceptionally well by its founder and CEO, Richard White. WiseTech has secured a dominant position in international freight-forwarding software, which is an inherently globally competitive market. We attribute this success to a rare combination of planning and execution.

We believe White has been instrumental in many of the company’s key innovations and strategic decisions critical to the company’s success, such as the transition toward a usage-based pricing model. This was at least a decade before the broader technology sector embraced the benefits of this customer-aligned business model. We also see many examples of iconoclastic behavior related to White’s cultivation of WiseTech’s culture, such as his mantra of “slower today, faster forever,” which starkly contrasts to the technology sector’s mantra of “move fast and break things.” In recent years, we have also seen White’s influence in capital allocation, with WiseTech investing countercyclically in the acquisition of talent and companies, which was antithetical to the broader tech sector at the time.


I sold out of Wistech (much like Pro Medicus) waaaaay too early, on valuation grounds, which proved to be wrong.

It is now fairly valued and I hope to buy back in tomorrow. Risks of a departure by RW are clearly reduced but not zero, there may be more chapters in this story to come

(#Me too.....)

31

mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

@Chagsy I felt myself nodding furiously when reading that note.

Unlike the Citi note earlier today where they are a “hold” because they think customers will be scared off. (I somehow don’t think global logistics works that way.)

I also think that the future doesn’t depend on RW. His key lieutenants have learned the model of building out the platform capability in a very structured and purposeful way, with each next priority bringing the next set of bolt on acquisitions into view. It is the most misreported strategy ever. It is simple but brilliant. And it is communicated clearly in all his slides over the years.

I am happy to be back onboard and can’t believe my good fortune that I only had to step off the bus for a few short weeks, while at the same time relieved it didn’t “do a $PME” on me.

24
karlrockdrain
Added 2 months ago

I think perhaps some wiser heads/and or Board around RW have prevailed and he has listened to the drums. If you are going to buy your "mistress " a 13.2 Mil house in the first instance, then settling the case between both parties for whatever the cost, would seem logical and prudent. Step away from the business you have built or make the issue disappear - seems easy choice in the end.

I got called into work today before Market opened, so i have placed an order this afternoon for tomorrow and will be happy to buy at $110 or less, especially as they will report results in mid Nov and rarely do WTC disappoint, probably more on the upside.

On a personal note, always interesting and entertaining to see how the Ultra Rich conduct their affairs, and what lessons are i able to take from their experiences.

21
Bear77
Added 2 months ago

I like your logic @mikebrisy and I have followed your lead and also initiated a position in WTC - first time here on SM, but not the first time in RL, but haven't held them for a couple of years - just always looked expensive to me, however at below $110/share they look a lot better at this point in time.

I won't be buying back into MIN, because Chris has broken tax laws, been dishonest on a number of fronts, and made money for himself and friends at the expense of the rest of the MinRes shareholders, so has shown he can NOT be trusted to manage the company in the best interests of ordinary shareholders, like me. RW on the other hand has made some odd choices it seems, but those are related to his personal life, and I don't think I can see a clear impact on TSRs for WTC shareholders other than the very recent paper losses as the share price dropped, which is not applicable if you (a) don't sell or (b) didn't hold WTC. So, while I do have governance concerns in terms of whether the WTC Board would really stand up to RW if they felt they needed to, or should do, it probably isn't going to be an issue in the near term if he has settled the case as you have suggested.

I have exited AD8 both here and in my super, purely because they were held as a growth company and I doubt there's going to be much growth with AD8 in the next little while, so I'll reassess that investment option when they start releasing positive news again. It just gets back to where do I think I'm going to get the best bang for my bucks in the short to medium term. Long term investing is all well and good, unless you need to live off the investment proceeds, which is my current situation. I am investing for short, medium and long term returns at this point, so companies whose share prices are more likely to drop further than to rise over the next year are likely to get the chop in my real life portfolios. I made some money on Audinate when they went over $20/share, by trimming the positions, but that's not going to happen again for a while, in my opinion. Better options.

30

SebastianG
Added 2 months ago

You are all tempting me to enter a position. I don't want to try and catch a falling knife, but I also think there could be a bit more of a fall here. I've put a buy in on Strawman, will contemplate doing so in RL today.

13

Arizona
Added 2 months ago

@SebastianG Of course none of us can tell if there are more stories ready to be drip fed by the media. Only time will tell.

It certainly is getting tempting.

9

SebastianG
Added 2 months ago

I've read a lot of commentary on it over the last 24-48 hours. It's a very divisive stock. I'd say for every investor tempted to enter a position, there is at least one, if not 1.5, who believe its value is unjustifiably high. The latter commentary tends to focus on its comparison to the big US tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft, with words to the effect of, "it isn't in that kind of class". I would tend to agree with that view and I do think it trades on an "Australian" premium. That is, as we've discussed on here before, there are limited options on the ASX when it comes to high quality and established company growth stocks.

I do think we'll see more of a pull back and a bit of sideways trading for a while, which is what makes the decision to buy in so difficult for me.

18

Arizona
Added 2 months ago

@SebastianG On one hand the media can keep at this for a while longer surely pushing out stories up to the AGM on the 22nd Nov. The meeting is online only.

On the other hand a month can be a long time. The US election and subsequent fall out, may mean that WTC issues fall out of the headlines and attention is diverted elsewhere.

12

mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

I think a key milestone will be the outcome of the Board Investigation, with an eye on the AGM on 22 November. Several of the $WTC Non-Execs have much wider interests and reputations, and they know they will have to do a good job as DIrectors or suffer damage to their own reputations/prospects.

So, the key issue I am interested in, is what the investigation unearths about the relationship between RW and the staff member that reportedly began in 2016 and ended in 2023, and which involved the transfer of ownership of a property. From what I've read, RW disclosed the relationship to Board "before her hiring" in May 2017. Again, from what I've read, the property transfer occurred outside anything to do with Wisetech.

For me, this is important information. The fact, if true, that RW reported to the Board the relationship before hiring a relatively junior employee, indicates to me that he has understood the fine line that exists between acceptable and unacceptable behaviour in corporate life. Over my decades working in leading companies at senior level, I cannot count the number of relationships between powerful leaders (of all genders) and more junior staff that began at work. Societal expectations and rules about disclosures have evolved over the 40 years of my working life, and it is easy for people to not always be ahead of their disclosure obligations. (After all, many times the relationship is initially clandestine, as one or more parties may be already in a relationship).

So, learning of RW's reported disclosure before the fact, was a critical piece of "evidence" that gave me confidence that this is someone who has been aware of and managed the fine line between the acceptable and unacceptable.

And so, I come to the conclusion, that much of the remainder of this is a personal matter, for which the test is "has anyone broken any laws"? So far, not a hint of any evidence. And the noise and colour has been amped up by a media keen to hold as many eyeballs on the issue for as long as possible. Absence material new relevations, the news cycle will move on - it always does. And eventually we will hear the outcome of the Board Investigation.

A positive of all of this, is that it will have put a rocket under the Board on succession planning, and they will need to say more on this to investors that they otherwise wouldn't have felt the need to. That's a good thing.

So, that's a little more detail on my risk calculation.

Red Flags for me would be if Fiona Pak Poy (Chair People and Rem Committee) or Lisa Brock (Chair of Audit and Risk Committee) stand down. Both joined early this year, bringing key independence and gender balance to the Board. There is no way either should be leaving any time soon.

25

PortfolioPlus
Added 2 months ago

My take on Richard White is one of sadness and regret. This guy is/was a one in a million. What else has he got to prove? He has done it all and he's not a perpetual 'rinse and repeat' guy. Perhaps a bit like a Steve Jobs character and no one can deny Jobs and White have made a difference.

His views on business were so radical as to be almost unbelievable, and yet they worked. Go read his company mantra and see just how radical it is when compred to the usual, predictable claptrap mantra.

Yep, he may have taken a wrong path, perhaps the challenge has gone, money is no object or an inspiration, but I say give him time to find his next challenge.

Unfortiunately $WTC may have to survive without his magic, but it is now so well entrenched, as to be almost unassailable and I do know he was a systems thinking guy so I'd be very surprised if $WTC cannot operate on remote control - the people operate the system and the system drives the business. I just hope his mates are there to counsel him through these personal matters which deeply affect all family members.

Someone in this forum mentioned US Presidents and their past lives - I'd venture to suggest not one of them would stoop to pick up a stone is they honestly answered that expression 'let he who is without sin cast the first stone'. Come to think about it, which Australian PM would be game to pick up the stone?

15