Pinned straw:
Morningstar's take on the matter. I like the probabilistic reasoning:
We lower our fair value estimate for narrow-moat WiseTech by 5% to AUD 109 per share given media reports of alleged inappropriate behavior by CEO Richard White. We estimate that the replacement of White as CEO would lower the value of WiseTech shares by around 20% to AUD 90 per share, and we ascribe a 25% probability of this happening. Our fair value for WiseTech, with White remaining at the helm, remains at AUD 115 per share.
We think WiseTech has been managed exceptionally well by its founder and CEO, Richard White. WiseTech has secured a dominant position in international freight-forwarding software, which is an inherently globally competitive market. We attribute this success to a rare combination of planning and execution.
We believe White has been instrumental in many of the company’s key innovations and strategic decisions critical to the company’s success, such as the transition toward a usage-based pricing model. This was at least a decade before the broader technology sector embraced the benefits of this customer-aligned business model. We also see many examples of iconoclastic behavior related to White’s cultivation of WiseTech’s culture, such as his mantra of “slower today, faster forever,” which starkly contrasts to the technology sector’s mantra of “move fast and break things.” In recent years, we have also seen White’s influence in capital allocation, with WiseTech investing countercyclically in the acquisition of talent and companies, which was antithetical to the broader tech sector at the time.
I sold out of Wistech (much like Pro Medicus) waaaaay too early, on valuation grounds, which proved to be wrong.
It is now fairly valued and I hope to buy back in tomorrow. Risks of a departure by RW are clearly reduced but not zero, there may be more chapters in this story to come
(#Me too.....)
I think perhaps some wiser heads/and or Board around RW have prevailed and he has listened to the drums. If you are going to buy your "mistress " a 13.2 Mil house in the first instance, then settling the case between both parties for whatever the cost, would seem logical and prudent. Step away from the business you have built or make the issue disappear - seems easy choice in the end.
I got called into work today before Market opened, so i have placed an order this afternoon for tomorrow and will be happy to buy at $110 or less, especially as they will report results in mid Nov and rarely do WTC disappoint, probably more on the upside.
On a personal note, always interesting and entertaining to see how the Ultra Rich conduct their affairs, and what lessons are i able to take from their experiences.
I like your logic @mikebrisy and I have followed your lead and also initiated a position in WTC - first time here on SM, but not the first time in RL, but haven't held them for a couple of years - just always looked expensive to me, however at below $110/share they look a lot better at this point in time.
I won't be buying back into MIN, because Chris has broken tax laws, been dishonest on a number of fronts, and made money for himself and friends at the expense of the rest of the MinRes shareholders, so has shown he can NOT be trusted to manage the company in the best interests of ordinary shareholders, like me. RW on the other hand has made some odd choices it seems, but those are related to his personal life, and I don't think I can see a clear impact on TSRs for WTC shareholders other than the very recent paper losses as the share price dropped, which is not applicable if you (a) don't sell or (b) didn't hold WTC. So, while I do have governance concerns in terms of whether the WTC Board would really stand up to RW if they felt they needed to, or should do, it probably isn't going to be an issue in the near term if he has settled the case as you have suggested.
I have exited AD8 both here and in my super, purely because they were held as a growth company and I doubt there's going to be much growth with AD8 in the next little while, so I'll reassess that investment option when they start releasing positive news again. It just gets back to where do I think I'm going to get the best bang for my bucks in the short to medium term. Long term investing is all well and good, unless you need to live off the investment proceeds, which is my current situation. I am investing for short, medium and long term returns at this point, so companies whose share prices are more likely to drop further than to rise over the next year are likely to get the chop in my real life portfolios. I made some money on Audinate when they went over $20/share, by trimming the positions, but that's not going to happen again for a while, in my opinion. Better options.