Pinned straw:
Apologies for slow replies. Just been super busy last few weeks.
but I feel like this is a Regal Funds (or some other POS) playing with our SP to move us out of the ASX200?
I believe short position has gone up a little?
to make this method make them money…they may have to push it further down.
im a buyer from 1.90 down
@mikebrisy while I don't use any fancy technicals, I do like to use the 3-point trend lines and just look at the chart to see if it is telling me anything about sediment and I don't buy if there is negative sediment. I try to follow the logic of the QAV podcast reference the 3-point trend line (but on a shorter time frame normally), Cameron has a good Youtube video explaining it from memory. I bought Polynovo around $1.50 originally knowing it is likely to move more than 50% in a given year and potentially something I could take advantage of by trimming or adding at the right time so bit of a mix of investor/trader mindset. I have trimmed back IRL (note that PNV is a small position for me) at around $2.50.
Right now, I'm sitting on my hands and seeing how this plays out looking to add at some point in the future well below $2. The PNV chart below to me has some strong negative sentiment. The higher blue line in the chart was the slow climb gradual climb. Around the $2.25 mark there was support which now looks to be clearly broken now. I just added a new yellow line. Based on my personal rules I wouldn't buy until at least there is some positive looking sediment and that would require the yellow line to be crossed at a minimum. I apply these rules to my buying because in the past I use to love falling knives. If I liked it at $2.50 why would I not like it now? Well I have learnt the answer is because the market doesn't like it and might offer it to me at $1.80 in 3 months' time as an example... Also, in that time I might find out what I was missing and not be interested anyways....
Are you a betting man, @mikebrisy ? At this point in the cycle (asking whether to buy tomorrow/Friday), thats really what it comes down to.
You know my thoughts on the product (positive, but not magic, probably no moat). Even at this discounted price, the PE is high. If growth disappoints, it's getting creamed (which may itself represent a buying opportunity, depending on medium term projections).
I'm asking myself the same Q, although off a small ~2.5% holding. Buy more as a gamble/hedge against good news, or wait and see? My gut says do nothing, which means you should probably buy lol