Pinned straw:
Hiring of sales force team - on track
Telehealth platform (Upscript) - In place and on track
"Payer success continues" (Insurance companies signing/signed up. By all accounts a long and time consuming process. Very important in the scheme of things as it will bring the cost of SOFDRA to zero, for the insured Hyperhidrosis sufferer.
❖ Contracts already signed or currently being signed with Commercial Payers that represent
~80M commercial lives
❖ Finalizing terms on contracts with Commercial Payers representing a further ~80M lives in
the coming weeks
❖ On track to have ~72M Medicaid lives eligible
❖ Contracts signed and being negotiated reflect the expected Payer coverage mix (see chart
previous slide)
❖ Where there are Payer restrictions, those restrictions only limited to those negotiated:
− ensuring that the patient actually has the medical condition per the label; and/or
− the patient confirms they’ve tried an existing product such as Drysol
Patient experience program - On track
Manufacturing - On track
Nb. diagram below refers to the calendar year:
There is not much here that has not been communicated previously.
All in all this is playing out as planned
As discussed here on SM previously, there may not be too much to get excited about until the new calendar year and some sales data from the US, begins to trickle in.
Meanwhile its steady as she goes and stick to the plan/timeline below:
It’s been fascinating following the commercialisation process of SOFDRA. I have learnt alot about the processes involved in launching a drug into the US market. I think it’s great the company is providing such detail so, retail holders get to see the processes involved. I have not found the same level of engagement before in biotechs I have invested in. For me this engagement has allowed me a deeper understanding for future investments in this area. I have also found it fascinating to see the business strategy for marketing being put in place.
@Arizona I agree it is good to hear things are on track, particularly the progress on payor coverage. The other measures are softer progress measures, where it is easy to be on track at this stage. I don't expect anything else significant until:
- Jan-25: Potential report on refills in the PEP. Some might be on to second refill, if PEP started in November. (Plus further payor coverage update.)
- Apr-25: First sales update and leading indicator of how many patients are using the product, by channel. Most I imagine will be via telehealth.
- Jul-25: I think that the first biggie. There should be some solid data on persistence, as well as numbers of patients via both channels. At that point we can develop some scenarios for the S-curve, even though the range of outcomes will still be very wide.
How am I thinking about this?
I'd expect to see the SP rangebound in $0.30-0.35 until that time, with potentially significant demand increasing if there are positive noises from PEP in a Jan-update, ahead of first formal sales reported in April. Because if there is the slightest indication that SOFDRA is a commercial success, then "the market" will act on the potential for peak sales to significantly outstrip the very low volumes required for the current valuation. That speculation could bring in significant SP pressure. The converse is also possibly true if there is a weak progress read out on the PEP or if there is no news. That's because management have shown that they will actively communicate a lot of detail about how things are progressing - with a potential bias to positivity.
Disc: Held in RL and SM