Forum Topics US Election
Bear77
Added a month ago

Tuesday 12th November 2024:

'Nature was nice while it lasted': Trump's pick for EPA met with derision

Story by Erik De La Garza, msn.com

Donald Trump’s incoming administration is beginning to take shape with his latest picks being announced on Monday, but it’s the president-elect’s choice to lead the Environmental Protection Agency that’s raising eyebrows with social media users expressing a mix of humor with genuine concern.

“Nature was nice while it lasted,” actress Heather Thomas wrote on X Monday after Trump announced that former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) was his pick to head the EPA.

“It is an honor to join President Trump’s Cabinet as EPA Administrator,” Zeldin, a Trump loyalist who in 2022 unsuccessfully ran for New York governor against Kathy Hochul, wrote Monday. “We will restore US energy dominance, revitalize our auto industry to bring back American jobs, and make the US the global leader of AI. We will do so while protecting access to clean air and water.”

Want more breaking political news? Click for the latest headlines at Raw Story.

Zeldin will likely begin his new role by starting the process of overturning several of the Biden administration’s “biggest rules on climate, including tailpipe regulations for vehicles and rules aimed at slashing pollution from power plants and oil and gas producers,” CNN reported.

“Gonna be ironic when Long Island is consumed by the climate change that hometown boy Lee Zeldin hastened as EPA administrator,” news producer Jordan Zakarin wrote in a social media post.

“Trump has selected Lee Zeldin to head the EPA,” X user Deacon Blues wrote. “God help our planet.”

Others took a more stark approach.

“A climate denier who received hundreds of thousands of dollars from fossil fuel companies and polluters will be running the EPA. Trump isn't just a threat to the US. His administration is threat to the entire planet,” Melanie D’Arrigo, executive director for Campaign for New York Health, wrote on X.

Author Jeff Sharlet told his social media followers that he believes Zeldin’s policy record “is irrelevant."

"He was chosen for his absolute submission to the whims of Trump," said Sharlet. "Trump doesn’t intend to govern but to rule.”

CNN chief climate correspondent Bill Weir noted that Zeldin “gets a woeful 14% lifetime score from the League of Conservation Voters,” while LA Times climate columnist Sammy Roth reminded his followers that Zeldin was “an election denier.”

Further Reading: Trump didn't win — disinformation did

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2025: Buckle Up!

13

Kayy
Added a month ago

I feel like we are going to see headlines like this for everyone Trump appoints. With the above EPA pick, yes the environment may take a hit, but with some of the deregulation that they have been talking about then it could be very good news for mining and manufacturing in the US. Interesting to see what knock on effects it will have with Australian industries.

Very big changes seem to be on the way, especially with how he appoints RFK and if he does get his Senate leader hopeful, Rick Scott into the position.

I am personally very interested to see what plays out on the crypto/bitcoin front once he does take office.

Up until Jan im sure we are going to inundated with all sorts of headlines.

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mikebrisy
Added a month ago

Listening to the latest “The Markets” Goldman Sachs podcast, they think US small businesses will be the major beneficiaries of the Trump administration’s assault on regulation.

They’ve noted most of these businesses are unlisted, so are looking at companies that serve small businesses.

So, on ASX $XRO, $SDR, and $DSE come to mind. Others?

18

Strawman
Added a month ago

hmm, good question @mikebrisy

Reece, AI-Media, AVA Risk Group & Playside Studios come to mind.

15

Chagsy
Added a month ago

Also Reliance? ASX:RWC. Although not sure whether the incoming POTUS has altered the outlook for home building/renovations

held IRL

10

edgescape
Added a month ago

Macquarie doesn't agree with RWC.

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Maybe because of this?

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EZ-flo and Eastman is from China

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America

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10
Metis
Added 2 months ago

I’ve been glued to it, unfortunately.

tariffs and tax cuts!! I’m definitely no macro expert, but anyone got a clue to how this could potentially affect US equities? Profit making companies would have to be licking their lips.. or maybe just Elon.

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mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

@Metis some things I've understood from expert views:

  • Tax breaks and the prospect of de-regulation could give an initial uplift to corporate valuations
  • But tariffs are inflationary,... which overall is not good for the economy
  • Government debt will likely expand even faster ... not good long term ... unless big Government is hacked back (but this is bad for jobs and consumer spending)
  • Global effects - who knows. Last time there were "adults in the room" and a pandemic, which constrained action. This time feels different.
  • Overall, a more isolationist US is probably not good overall.


Ultimately, it comes down to how much of what was said in the campign will get done. Unpredictability in international affairs could drive uncertainty, which markets don't like.

I'd be wary of first order thinking on any of this.

I'm no expert. Harris was likely "business as usual". We're moving into a more uncertain future, I think.

In any event, in 4 years there is another election.

Actions I'm taking on my portfolio = None.

37

Metis
Added 2 months ago

Thanks for the detailed reply @mikebrisy, there seem to be so many variables. I’m just banking on the fact I’m 38 and can ride through it all regardless of which way it goes. Back to quality businesses at reasonable prices and try to let time do the work.

Im not planning on taking any action with my portfolio apart from maybe a little more dollar cost averaging into bitcoin etf over the coming years.

18
Strawman
Added 2 months ago

Haven't been able to focus on anything else all day. And angry at myself for being so sucked into the spectacle of it all :)

Fascinating times.

As I write, the NY Times is giving this forecast:

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It's still way too early to call, but I'm surprised it has swung so far in Trump's direction at this stage.

I'll try and avoid a political commentary, but interesting to see US treasury prices being destroyed (yields spiking) and Bitcoin spiking.

Safe to say markets don't expect much fiscal or monetary restraint in the next term, or at least less than what the other side might have offered (not that it had many better economic plans).

32

mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

@Strawman me too!

Without PA, Harris is toast.

Doesn't look like she's closing enough as her rate picks up with late counting from urban centres, Does the slope tick up, as rural centres are done and the mix moves to the larger urban centres?

I called "Probable Trump" about 4 hours ago ... Trump's % in rural counties vs. Harris' % in urban centres is unfavourable to Harris compared with 2020.

EDIT: Update at 4pm AEST - PA gap is not closing.

I'm calling for Trump.

EDIT: Update at 4:47pm AEST - PA gap still not closing. I don't understand why the networks haven't called it.


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Hackofalltrades
Added 2 months ago

Fascinating is one word...


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mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

I've updated my PA tracker at 4pm in my earlier post.

Am calling the election for Trump.

GAME OVER

13

Solvetheriddle
Added 2 months ago

Mayne Ellison and the WTC guy should throw their hats into the US presidential ring, a lower barrier of behaviour required lol

lets hope he does a good job for all our sakes

19

edgescape
Added 2 months ago

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Convincing win good for US market.

Looks like AMZN will rally past 200 according to the overnight trade.

Should have bought more before that earnings release few days back

17

Arizona
Added 2 months ago

So stock market up in the short term, I guess.

Wow

What ever we might think of Trump - what a come back!

I assume that the Democrat supporters won't resort to violence, so that is an up side.

17

edgescape
Added 2 months ago

Sometimes we overthink things too much and think one negative like Trump breaks the thesis

With one bear there are probably many more bulls

One example is Praemium. I still think it's bad quality (see my straw) but I think it is up over 30%.

12

Bear77
Added 2 months ago

I've made some changes in my SMSF today - sold all of my ETPMPM, which is a precious metals ETP, while still in profit, I think the gold price could well drop further in the short term before resuming its uptrend in 2025. The Aussie Gold sector is being smashed today, but they've had a good run, and I'm not sure this is the start of a gold bear market yet.

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-5.85% is a fairly big move for one morning - that was the mid-day snapshot from the MT newsletter today - however I note Energy is positive, and while my COE is down, my STO is up, and so is Woodside (which I do not hold).

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Surprising that Resources are flat (instead of down) and that BHP, RIO and FMG are all up, considering Trump is unlikely to be a positive for Australian iron ore.

There's another trade war looming between China and the USA, and likely the USA and a bunch of other countries, due to Trump's add-Tariffs-to-all-imports plan, and not just small tariffs either, massive tariffs if his rhetoric is to be believed, and he did go down the tariff path last time, so no reason to think he won't follow up on these promises to go even harder this time around.

Australia's PM (at the time) Malcolm Turnbull negotiated directly with Trump and got exemptions for Australia on steel and aluminium tariffs - last time - see here: https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/a-special-relationship-australia-safe-from-trump-s-tariffs-for-now-20190603-p51tyr.html [03-June-2019]

Hopefully Albo can do the same. Nothing is guaranteed however.

What is more relevant is that our largest customer, China, is likely to be embroiled in a trade war with the USA in 2025 and beyond, and that comes at a time when China has pivoted its internal stimulus to encourage its own people to spend more money and it's businesses to borrow and expand, rather than stimulate the property market in China or to build further infrastructure. They have accepted that they have already built too much - both housing and infrastructure - so their consumption of Australian iron ore is unlikely to match the levels achieved when all of that previous construction was taking place.

China is also continuing to do exactly what the USA has been trying to do, which is to increase their own internal capacity in many industries so as to rely far less on imports from other countries. Where China can not source materials internally, they are establishing alternative sources of supply so that they are less reliant on one or two countries for material imports. I fail to see how China getting into another trade war with the USA is going to be a net positive for Australian miners.

In my super this morning I added a decent position in Woolworths (WOW) again while they remain under $30, which is a good buy zone in my opinion. And I added some IOO - the iShares Global Top 100 ETF, which is 95% (94.88%) USA and Europe, as shown below, and 43.25% Technology companies.

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This one is a Christmas rally trade - because any negatives that emerge from Trump 2.0 in terms of negative share market impacts are going to occur in 2025 and beyond - he won't be sworn in until his inauguration on Jan. 20, so can only say what he's going to do and talk about all of the executive orders he has ready to go, up until then, and from late January onwards I expect him to hit the ground running. He can't be elected for a third term apparently, according to the US constitution, which enough people other than him value enough to uphold, so he won't care about popularity so much this time around I expect - he'll just get stuck into his own agenda, much of which we already know.

The largest companies in the world are in the US and in that ETF, and I would expect their market values to increase, over the next couple of months at least, so I'll hold that IOO ETF for as long as it makes sense to me to do so, or until I see a better opportunity to make some money elsewhere.

Likewise with Woolworths, I am in them for a good time, likely not a long time. It's just a trade. I want to balance my overweight gold exposure with entirely different exposure, and WOW and IOO are certainly different to gold.

I haven't sold any of my gold exposures. I did top up my EVN exposure this morning at $4.76/share in my super - they fell as low as $4.73 - but I was happy with $4.76 - and I did that because they are a gold/copper producer and I like copper from here. Copper has apparently been sold down overnight on the basis that the transition to EVs will slow down considerably now under Trump 2.0, however my new-found bullishness around copper goes beyond EVs - and is more around tight supply over the next 10 to 15 years while copper is not easily substitutable in most cases, and any substitution of copper in manufacturing would be costly and time-consuming, and likely have unwanted implications for the end products being manufactured.

Just as one example, aluminium has lower conductivity, higher resistance, and is more susceptible to corrosion than copper. Copper is also more resistant to heat than aluminum. It has a higher melting point (around 1,085°C or 1,985°F) compared to aluminum (about 660°C or 1,220°F), making copper better suited for applications that may involve high temperatures. There are other metals that can be substituted for copper. Gold is an excellent conductor of electricity for instance, but gold is far too expensive for the vast majority of applications where copper is used. All substitutable metals have their drawbacks, and copper remains the best cost-effective solution for most electrical applications and will remain so even at substantially higher copper prices, in my opinion.

Not advice, just what I'm thinking at the moment.

I'm happy that my fears around violence and chaos around the US Presidential election were not realised, as Trump winning comfortably, as he has, was about the ONLY scenario I could think of that would guarantee a peaceful transfer of power, with a relatively peaceful transition period between the election and the inauguration, so that in itself is certainly a positive, even though I personally think he's a net negative for both the USA and especially the rest of the world; but most of the stuff I talked about over the weekend that I thought MIGHT happen, didn't and won't, so that is good. And now I'm doing a little bit of repositioning. In my SMSF, I've jettisoned my physical precious metals exposure (my position in the ETPMPM ETP) however I've kept all of my gold sector exposure via gold producing companies, and even increased my Evolution (EVN) position on weakness this morning.

In my other largest real-money portfolio, I hold some ex-300 companies like LYL and GNG and a couple of LICs - WLE and WGB - and those positions are actually all up today - and I'm happy with that positioning - so haven't made any changes there except for a further top-up of COE (Cooper Energy) today.

20

Strawman
Added 2 months ago

Excellent points all round team. Things are certainly likely to be "interesting" in the coming years.

Emotionally, I feel I should opt for a more defensive posture. That's the conventional wisdom, at least. But, ironically, things like bonds and fixed interest seem among the worst possible things you could go for. Tell me again why i'd lend the US Government money for ten years for just 4.3% -- tell 'em their dreaming!!

And then there's every chance we get some kind of 'melt-up', especially in the short to medium term if we see a lot of liquidity pumped into the system (credit expansion and deficit funding). And even just on lower taxes, less regs etc etc -- all the stuff business loves, even if they can cause bigger problems down the track.

So I always just come back to the old cliche of "good businesses at good prices". Even if market's take a hit, they always offer the safest harbour. (at least, if you're able to endure the volatility)

Bitcoin is a noticeable departure from this, now my largest holding, but it's in a weird category of its own. It's definitely influenced by the fiscal, monetary and regulatory backdrop, but its adoption pathway seems set either way. Trump likely accelerates things, but he's not necessary.

Anyway, I think Gandalf has a bit of wisdom to offer us in the current situation

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28

Saasquatch
Added 2 months ago

Another liquidity event/opportunity is the TGA - Treasury General Account of 700-850B that has potential to be accessed by the Republicans. Lyn Alden's latest newsletter goes into further detail on macro movements.

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