Pinned straw:
I use echo myself a bit in clinical practice, and I still dont understand what exactly the product does.
My best guess is that it is an app or a plugin to existing echo software (they all save echo pictures in the same format), which applies the algorithm to the echo loops (videos) to spit out a diagnosis or classification of lesion severity. My impression is (despite the company hype) this will be an aid to workflow / speed rather than diagnostic accuracy
Good points @Scoonie, and thanks for putting through some great questions for the meeting.
There really is a lot of potential here. I have no direct experience with the industry (obviously), but the addressable market and value prop seem very compelling. But then again, doesnt it always!
The hard point is knowing when a company like this goes from interesting tech to commercial success. It's genuinely made some good progress in the time since we last spoke -- but as Philip said, it's slow going by nature. I suspect it will be at least ~18 months before we get any early evidence of sales traction, and another 6-9 more from there to see if there's any momentum.
I put it into the same camp as EMVision actually. (And i have a tiny 0.8% holding there). It's one of those situations where it could easily 10-20x from here...or it never gets traction and it slowly erodes 90% of it's value over the next 5-10 years.
I think the way to approach these situations is to average up as the thesis plays out, with a preparedness to dump the lot if ever it looks like the vision isnt going to be realized.
To your question @nessy (on other straw), I took it that the next FDA approval will likely follow a similar timeline. So maybe a year at the earliest? depending on the data they can submit.