Forum Topics TNE TNE Divestment Decision

Pinned straw:

Added a month ago

I have this morning exited my entire RL $TNE position at $26.591.

It's a great company, but the decision was based on valuation. For me its $23.70 ($20.70 - $26.60).

Getting to my upper valuation limit of $26.60 requires strong sustained growth for 6 years, with an exit P/E of 45 in 2030 - which is high by any measure.

SP has run up over 67% since the stellar 1H result, and I fear expectations have started to run ahead of reality. For such a steady perfomer, a forward P/E of 72x and trailing of 79x just seems excessive. A result next week that does anything other than blow well-guided consensus out of the park could see a significant pull-back. The outperformance required to drive yet another leg up seems to be a stretch. (Let's see how well that prediction ages!)

Of course, whenever I hop off the bus like this, I know I risk missing the chance to get back on. But can I see it doing +15% from here over the next 12 months? Frankly, no.

I'm reasonably confident that this one will come back, and would be happy to get back on more around $21-$22. (Just wait for the next round of US inflation concerns to raise their heads!)

Disc: Not held


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Shapeshifter
Added a month ago

Thanks everyone for their thought provoking posts.

It has got me reflecting on my own recent experience with Droneshield. Like many of us here I was in that stock but sold out at about $1.10 when it got well above my valuation. We all know what happened after that and it went all the way up to $2.70. I left a 6 figure sum on the table. One side of the coin is my process is logic based and over a lifetime of investing this will prevent the trip and fall that can come with over valued correcting share prices but the other side of the coin is the obvious missing the exuberant market emotion. Now this is not the way I plan on making money in the market - I'm in on the slow compounding thing - but the question I have been asking myself is if the market presents this situation to me again can I do better next time?

Just to clarify this is a situation where I think a stock is overvalued and I want to sell however the market conditions and/or stock exuberance have posiitive momentum on the share price.

What would have happened if I had used a trailing stop loss with Droneshield?

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This is the share price action from when I sold at about $1.10 until it's peak at $2.70. Maybe I would have set a trailing stop loss of 10% and the first big spike down from $1.70 means I would have been stopped out at about $1.53. Although still well short of the peak at $2.70 still much higher than where I sold out at.

I know that stop loss is a dirty word for many but at the end of the day a trailing stop loss is just a selling tool and perhaps one I can use in this specific circumstance.


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thunderhead
Added a month ago

Nice way to frame one of the key issues we all face while selling.

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lankypom
Added a month ago

I am a bit of a heretic when it comes to valuation - I believe a company is worth what the market is prepared to pay for it. I also believe the market is fickle, driven by emotion (or algorithmic trading) more so than facts, so I accept that volatility is the price of entry.

As long as a company demonstrates long term revenue and profit growth, has clearly got capable management with a track record of market leadership and with several levers available to support further growth, then I pretty much leave it to get on with it. There will be times of undervaluation and times of overvaluation, depending on changes in the variables you put into a DCF or changes in what the market perceives to be a reasonable PE ratio.

I pretty much ignore these fluctuations. TNE is 5% of my SMSF portfolio, I've held for 7 years with a top up along the way, and I fully expect to be holding when the $1 billion ARR milestone is reached.

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Shapeshifter
Added a month ago

I know that no one seems to agree with me but as I've said before @mikebrisy I think this in the one situation to use a trailing stop loss:

Where you think a stock with upward momentum is overvalued AND you want sell.

The Tech One share price could keep heading up irrationally from here and your trailing stop would keep ratcheting up as well.

Unless you need the capital immediately I can't see the downside to this approach.

With CMC markets trailing stop loss orders are placed 3 price steps below the best bid price at the time the order is processed, which may be slightly below your trail level to prevent gap downs.

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mikebrisy
Added a month ago

@Shapeshifter yes, that capability is also available on CommSec, in CommSec IRESS. However, as I transact relatively infrequently, I'd have to subscribe to this service at $82.50 a month, for a service I wouldn't use that much. Before today, my last RL sale was almost 2 months ago.

In any event, I prefer manual decisions. I always take time to weigh up my decision based on valuation and what's going on in the market. I've no doubt I could be leaving money on the table.

I had decided some time ago to exit $TNE once it hit the top end of my valuation range, and it was just a matter of waiting.

I also have to be careful with some of my positions, placing a trade when I can see the volume is available, because if the price trigger is hit when the SP is falling, I might not be able to get out without pulling it down further if there is limited liquitity. (That said, my RL positions are not big enough for that to be a problem with $TNE, but they are on several other stocks.) I know you can manage this via price limits.

So, you may be right. For all I know, $TNE might $30 in a week, and I could sell on a pull back to $29!

I do use alerts a lot within Commsec, both rising price and falling price. particular for watch list items, which can move quickly without me seing it immediately. So, for example, effective today I have a price alert on $TNE for when the price falls back below $23.50.

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actionman
Added a month ago

@Shapeshifter I never use a stop loss because too many times I have been stopped out on a momentary spike down, only for the share price to keep rising. I agree with mikebrisy, just put on an alert and do it manually where you have more context about why the price is moving. Regarding CMC Markets, I NEVER use a stop loss using a market maker because they can have large price errors during market gyrations. Beware. They will literally widen the pricing error during a gap down just to take you out. That's how market makers always win.

Instead of selling out completely of a company I still have conviction in but it is highly valued, I prefer to use position sizing. I.e. I might sell down to half or third of the current position size and then buy incrementally to maintain that sizing as it the price drifts lower. That way I still hold some position in case the price just keeps going up, but can buy more if the price drops. So I have a foot in both camps. I do this mainly to avoid the risk of not being able to reenter are a favourable price, plus also my valuation capability is limited so I am never really sure if something really is overvalued. For me, some of my biggest winners appear to be permanently overvalued so it has kept me in those.

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lowway
Added a month ago

Some very practical and time-proven tips for market movements @actionman Thanks for outlining what we could all do a bit more of if long term goals/gains are our focus!!

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RogueTrader
Added a month ago

I'm reminded of a Peter Lynch quote: "Show me a portfolio with 10 percent stop loss orders and I’ll show you a portfolio that loses 10 percent." Another along similar lines, “If you can’t convince yourself ‘when I’m down 25 percent, I’m a buyer’ and banish forever the fatal thought ‘when I’m down 2 percent, I’m a seller,’ then you’ll never make a decent profit in stocks.”

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