Forum Topics PRO PRO ARRgh!

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Added a month ago

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So it seems like they've been overstating emite contracted ARR by 15-30%. A few things:

  • It shouldn't read as a benign "Changes to...", it's really "Restatement of Errors..."
  • Another reminder that you need to put a significant discount on unaudited figures
  • While I don't think there's anything nefarious going on, it is at best clumsy (and some less generous adjectives come to mind). Just because it's unaudited doesn't give them a leave pass. It's a key metric and they're not so big that it's a huge job to scan the list by customer and work out what shouldn't be there.
  • Understandably the SP is down over 20% at time of writing, though my thesis is based less on the absolute ARR numbers and more on the direction and rate of change, combined with their ability to generate cash ahead of earnings. An opportunity? Maybe, but I think I'll wait to see H1 results - I've been wanting to see higher Snare ARR (not impacted by this announcement) convert to revenue.
  • Management has a job to win back trust. As part of that it might have been helpful to bring forward a broader YTD update, which they usually do at their AGM anyway.
  • It's worth noting Prophecy are using contracted ARR rather than ARR. This is well explained by Nick Maxwell here.


[Held]

Wini
Added a month ago

Yep, very disappointing @Noddy74. Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few weeks and leading up to the AGM. Complaints over the share price aside, as external investors our reliance on the figures and statements put forward by the management/board is paramount to our investment theses. It's not good enough to say "oops, our legacy system lost track of old contracts", there needs to be some change at an exec/board level. At a minimum this is proof positive the business needs a CFO, but I suspect some shareholders may be pushing for a new CEO as well...

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