Forum Topics EGL EGL ASX Announcement

Pinned straw:

Last edited a month ago

$EGL’s project execution mis-step has provided me with the entry opportunity I’ve been waiting for.

The market has to understand that every now and then every engineer is going to have a project delivery stuff up.

But I’m pleased to have been handed this entry opportunity this morning through a massive over-reaction. I was getting concerned that this one had gotten away from me.

Disc; Held RL 3.5% initial position

Strawman
Added a month ago

I agree @mikebrisy -- while this is definitely unwelcome news, it doesn't suggest any big structural problems and the market's reaction seems overblown -- which is likely a factor of somewhat thin liquidity.

In fact, looking at the course of sales so far today, the average trade size if under $5k, with only 8 trades worth more than $20k, out of 170. So this seems more of a knee jerk reaction from small investors than any loss of faith from major stakeholders.

Of course, another mishap like this would be some cause for concern in regard to how it reflects on business, systems/processes and competence.

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lyndonator
Added a month ago

It's interesting that EGL has been slipping down for a few days, in fact i was going to ask yesterday if anyone knew anything - I wonder if a few people on the inside got out ahead of this (allegedly, allegedly, don't sue me, etc).


But agree, one project does not a company make, I might grab a few more shares now it is back in my buy zone.

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mikebrisy
Added a month ago

@lyndonator yes, when my price alert at $0.32 was triggered yesterday before close, I wondered what was going on. (I'd intended to buy is SP ever got back to $0.30.)

Selling volumes appeared up on Monday and Tuesday compared with very low volumes in the last 2 weeks, but were not unusual in the context of the last 3 months. We're talking at most about $0.2-0.3m of potentially "excess" volumes. So, impossible to say, really.

I missed the opportunity to get onboard after the May SM meeting, when it quickly marched ahead through $0.30, and powered on to $0.40 recently. But I kept it on my watch short list, with a price alert. I knew, however, that after the pretty good FY24 result, I'd need to revisit my view on valuation....upwards.

The kind of mistake they've made on this project is precisely the kind of risk that can bite when you are delivering a project in an unfamiliar jurisdiction. As they say, there are lessons to be learned (there always are in project execution), but these and other kinds of execution risks exist in every project. In a good firm, most will be managed. But no-one achieves 100% success. It is also interesting that the risk manifest itself in logistics (moving stuff) - often a weakness in project management firms.

So, I am very pleased to have been handed the opportunity, and had zero hesitation moving on it. Let's just hope they don't make a hbit of this.

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Bear77
Added a month ago

Good discussion - Agree 100% with your thoughts on this @mikebrisy - and also @Strawman earlier. I had a look and decided to buy back in - in a real-money portfolio - I already hold them here. EGL was one of the companies that I sold out of in June when liquidating another real-money portfolio and I never bought back in - but I did today. It was an hour or two ago - around mid-day, and the price was rising and I thought there was sufficient volume to buy at 28 cps so I placed an initial order for 100,000 and only 5,000 of those got filled @ 28 cps, and the price rose through 28.5 and up to 29 cps within a few seconds, with volume building on the Buy side; So I raised my buy price on that order to 29 cents and the remainder (bulk) of the order went through at 29 cps. I was happy with anything at 30 cps or below.

I've been outside gardening for the past hour but I note now that EGL are currently trading between 28 and 29 cents still, so the rise from the day-low of 25.5 cps this morning (being -20.3% down on yesterday's close) appears to have run out of steam, as they have stayed around 28 cps (-12.5%) to 29 cps (-9.4%) for a couple of hours now - currently 28.5 cps (-10.9% on yesterday's 32 cps close).

I'm happy with paying a bee's whisker under 29 cps anyway, seeing as they were 40 cps just 3 weeks ago. I did trim some here at 40 cps last month, so might top-up again here today.

This issue that EGL have flagged today that has caused their guidance downgrade is temporary, not structural, and they are examining their processes to make changes to ensure it is not repeated, so that's all good, and as Mike says, simply presents a buying opp.

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edgescape
Added a month ago

Think anything in Environment sector is going to be sold off as a result of the Trump victory

While everyone chases anything that is a positive to Trump such as Financials and Tech.

EGL perhaps fortunate not to have any US business

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