Lovisa Holdings Limited

ASX:LOV

Lovisa Holdings Limited

ASX:LOV
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$31.75 (-0.1%)
Last close price
#63
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12
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Reports (7) My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics LOV LOV LOV valuation

Pinned valuation:

Valuation deleted
RogueTrader
Added one year ago

Just re the store rollout numbers for LOV, as I mentioned to Slew previously, that total of 36 for the year would be the total up to early November, thus only about 4 months into the year, so 36*3=108, which seems a very reasonable rate of new store openings. The weird thing is that Citi have downgraded LOV "after flagging slower-than-expected store rollouts and competitive risk from new rival Harli + Harpa." https://www.capitalbrief.com/briefing/citi-downgrades-lovisa-on-slow-store-roll-outs-competition-491e3d03-001e-4b13-a452-38ed04794438/

Have they made the same mistake as Slew, and looked at the 36 number as "halfway through the year"? (rather than only 1/3?) And is a huge multi-national chain, with nearly 1000 stores all over the globe, supposed to be intimidated by an upstart chain with a grand total of 3 stores? As for poaching, I'd think Lovisa with their much deeper pockets could poach any and all of their competition's staff if they really wanted to. Or just start a discount war until they cry "Uncle!" :)

Summary: with the sp being hammered for totally ridiculous reasons, LOV is now a great buying opportunity.

27
Solvetheriddle
Added one year ago

@RogueTrader i do tend to agree. LOV AGM this Friday, i would like to hear what they say. it would not surprise me that store rollouts are slow with the extended CEO changeover, hard to see competition being an issue anytime soon, maybe never. IMO. LOV has had a history of large drawdowns, that have been an oppty historically. ill wait but its in the zone now. imo

26
mikebrisy
Added one year ago

@Solvetheriddle and @RogueTrader I agree $LOV is starting to look interesting again.

My Val. From 8 months ago was $30 ($23-$37), which should probably be upped to about $32.

Recent discussion here on rate of store adds indicates $LOV is tracking just below my central case. Of course, even more important than volume of stores is the quality of locations and terms of the lease, and it gets increasingly difficult over time to unpick that.

I agree with @Solvetheriddle, during the period of CEO transition we shouldn’t expect to see much beyond $LOV just chugging along doing its thing. But I think that’s exactly what shareholders should want to see.

All the recent press from recent weeks about the ex-CEO competitor is way overblown. Barriers to entry in this game are almost non-existent. But $LOV has 14 years head start, a global footprint, established brand, and global supply chain.

I’m not dismissing competition as a threat. But there are many others to be thinking about like Forever 21, H&M, Claire’s, Zara Accessories. These already have scale and regional/global reach.

I’ll also be listening to what is said at the AGM, and am now watching $LOV closely.

I am interested to learn more about the new CEO, however. Particularly given recent press.

But if it hits @Rick ’s $25.00 then it’s hard to imagine I wouldn't be back in.

Disc. Not held

23
Rick
Added one year ago

I agree @mikebrisy. I’ll be adding more at $25, if it gets there.

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