@GazD @Mujo I don’t think there is much doubt this business will be a wealth winner eventually. However, I believe the uncertainty is increasing in the short term and the turn around time for IDP Eduction is getting longer. The shorters will continue to have a field day until there is some light at the end of the tunnel. I can’t see any signs of that yet.

This is a large holding for us and I’m not expecting the share price to improve for a few years. The underlying problem here is housing availability and student caps in the countries IDP operates in. Dutton has promised to tighten student caps even further if the coalition gets back in, and I don’t think Trump’s immigration policies are going to help growth in the US. Immigration and student caps are a real political football at the moment, and Universities and IDP Education are caught up in the middle. This is what Dutton has been saying in recent days (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/nov/20/international-student-cap-law-changes-peter-dutton-anthony-albanese)

“The opposition leader indicated he would take a promise of “deeper cuts” to international student intake to the federal election to alleviate the housing crisis.

“We’re happy for there to be a cap and to be a reduction, because I want Australian kids to get into housing. I don’t want to see people 40 and 50 deep for rental accommodation,” Dutton told reporters on Thursday.”

I believe this is what is putting further pressure on the IDP Education share price. It ain’t over yet! One to put in the bottom drawer for a year or two! It might be better to wait and see how far the share price falls before adding.

Disc held IRL and SM

I think you're right they're @Rick , IEL will be a downgrade cycle and there's nothing the market and brokers hate more.

Populist politics in Canada, Australia and US means anything could happen.

@Rick i tend to agree, im waiting for the headline Dutton says "International students are eating our cats!" (well it worked for others). seriously, i think it is a case of waiting for clear air, the first upgrade, etc. then there should be a long + run. so I'm sitting, i could double my exposure, but i think patience is required here. when it is clear you do risk a dramatic short covering so the SP could shoot higher quickly, that's the risk, timing is always tricky and not a game i like to play, but there are some apparent headwinds for this one. hopefully clears out the competition, which helps set up the next business growth cycle. sorry this is a meaningless ramble always hard when the ST/LT contrasts so much in a momentum focussed market.

@Rick and @Solvetheriddle I agree. I fully expect to hear more noise around this in the run up to the Federal election (dogs, cats, pets ...). Equally, my expectation in any event is for 2025 to be the trough and, like you, we'll need to see the upgrade cycle kick in, which it hasn't yet.

So, I am still holding back my final tranche for this one until that time. That's said, when I look at the prices of other things on my watch list, $IEL is starting to look interesting from a risk-reward perspective. But what is holding me back, is that I don't in all honesty know how long and deep the trough is going to be. Do we ever?

What I am interested in tracking, however, is how $IEL continues to perform through this down-turn. It has clearly been taking share so far, while also allocating more resources to the US. I wonder to what extent we are going to see this become a case of the strong getting stronger in a down-turn, which positions them well for when the cycle turns.

With the combined effects of increased deporation of "illegals", import tarriffs, and "Made in America" on the horizon, the demands for graduates in everything from science, engineering, and IT in the US could potentially be a tailwind for international students in the US starting to kick in from 2026 onwards. And that's the same irrespective of whether you are pushing the energy transition, or drill-baby-drill! A decent US business for $IEL also adds further geographic diversification, so I am eager to follow their progress there.

In conclusion, I continue to keep this one locked up in the bottom drawer.

Back to the 2020 COVID low when borders were shut, no vaccine and the world was ending...