@Remorhaz I've just listened to the $BIO discussion.

It's a very balanced discussion, although Graham incorrectly corrected Gaurav, when Gaurav noted they'd just got their first own strain.

What I liked most about the discussion, was that all three were coming from a point of healthy scepticism, although fully informed about the Blackmores and $A2M stories - so they know what these businesses can become in the success case.

So, while I didn't learn anything new, I got a lot of value in hearing the perspectives.

I felt their characterisation of how "clinical evidence" is developed in this sector was a reasonable representation. This is 95% about brand (maybe I lean more towards 80%).

Bottom line: don't own so much that if it fails (and it might) that you feel stupid. That makes total sense to me. None of Gaurav, Graham nor John are buyers, but they see the case for holding.

I think that is a really important point. There's every chance that over the next few reporting periods $BIO continues to post strong revenue growth (>50%p.a.) and with its strong gross margin, it will in all likelihood soon blast through the inflection point and then start to post a few periods of healthy EPS growth. That will likely attract attention and drive the SP. However, continued success in the long term is not guaranteed, and the podcast did discuss some of the risks, particularly around supply terms and risk to long term margins.

I'll be happy to let this run with success. But I think the current position size is where I'll rest for a while. It will take a couple of years to prove whether they can get the same penetration in the UK and Canada as they have in Australia, as well as if the Australia accounts have the running room that BVN believes. If both are proven true, then it is worth further consideration.

Disc: Held in RL (3%) and SM

P.S. The whole podcast is well worth listening to, for $MIN, $GTK and $LOV. I thought we heard some of Gaurav at his best in discussing $LOV.