Forum Topics PXA PXA Thoughts/Rudimentary Analysis

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

Some thoughts on PEXA, as I at least have some experience with it and I’m not intelligent (or yet confident enough) to attempt a valuation that might withstand even meagre scrutiny.

My experience is from Queensland, potentially and probably differing from other states, and any terms like “monopoly” are in reference to such.

I have recently been admitted to the legal profession and have had a couple of years experience as a law clerk in different firms. Rather often, I will be pondering investment opportunities at my desk (he says, also pondering his own career choice) and have considered some of the companies that appear to be the dominant players in the legal space.

LEAP and Infotrack are both privately owned by some wealthy individual, I believe. For those who don’t know, LEAP is basically the home app for your law firm - storing all the matter info, client details, documents, correspondence - literally anything and everything. Infotrack, from my understanding, is just a data seller (if you can imagine an ASX type company that sells up-to-date info at a premium) - absolutely essential if you need to get an accurate title or business address, for example.

I would absolutely love to get a piece of them, considering LEAP is pretty much a monopoly here already, as far as I can tell, and you need to pay Infotrack all the time for property searches, company searches, etc. Ultimately, if you want to run an effective and competitive firm, then these are essential. But alas, they are off the public picnic table.

Hence, my thoughts lead me to PEXA. Pretty much every firm I have ever encountered uses PEXA for their property settlements. I have heard of other platforms, however, I have never seen them in operation.

“Conveyancing” is basically the legal term for facilitating the purchase and sale of a property. Conveyancing was once a completely in-person experience but has recently moved digital. Unless you’ve done a private paper sale, if you’ve bought or sold property recently, then your agent/lawyer has probably used PEXA.

My area is not conveyancing, but I have seen it in action over the years. As far as I can tell, PEXA pretty much acts as the middle-man platform between the buyer and seller, then clips the ticket for the transactions that it facilitates, meaning you’re probably paying their fee as the seller/purchaser - a bit like those pesky real estate agents @Strawman

Could be wrong here, but that means its success is tied more to the amount of property transactions, as opposed to whether the property market overall does “well”. 

This kind of business feels like the type that could become (for better or worse) extremely entrenched in “the system”. Everything is moving digital. I cannot for the life of me understand it, but the courts are only just now starting to think about rolling out electronic filing for District and Supreme Court matters. 

At this stage, if you want to file documents in anything above the Magistrate’s Court (small matters court), you must physically take the physical paper documents into the court to file. Or, if you live hours away from the Supreme Court, like me, you pay a Process Server to file it for you - a business model which ultimately looks destined to die with further digital inclusion. The court will not accept electronic filing as of yet, but it seems inevitable.

Anyway, back to PEXA, no one does paper settlements anymore in practice. You might do them out of necessity, but it’s just not very practical or efficient, ever, unless you wind up in a firm that is primarily hard-copy, which do still exist, believe it or not. I don’t know the numbers, but I imagine the majority of settlements now are done through PEXA in Australia. 

It seems like PEXA could become a very stable business. Again, don’t know why, but the “higher tier” jobs - doctors, lawyers, etc. seem to be the most resistant and sluggish in adopting new technologies/processes. If a firm has spent considerable resources training and implementing PEXA into their system, then they will probably keep it on so long as it works.

It’s one of the only, and most popular, electronic settlement platforms that is historically proven and government trusted - so why change?

You would change - if the competitor’s product was many magnitudes greater/cheaper - but they aren’t, and I doubt they will be any time soon (could very well be wrong).

However, it seems rather difficult to improve much further here, considering all PEXA has done is take the required physical property settlement and move it digital. If the intermediary is always required to facilitate a property transaction, then the next logical evolution is … maybe metaverse/neural-link residential property settlements…?

What a time to be alive.

This leads me to my main question/concern - the potential growth of the business. 

If this business is already (which I would humbly argue it is) the winner (at least in AUS and UK) then is there much growth left remaining? Does this business seem likely to have an international scale potential? One thing to keep in mind also, this kind of business will likely only have any sort of “interoperability” with markets that share, or are similar to, the Australian legal system. Probably why the UK market and AUS market have been so successful - because Australia’s legal system is basically derived from English law.

I don’t think it would be possible for PEXA to ever expand into countries that have a differing notion of property rights, as the systems simply would not mesh well. Ultimately, this could likely even rule out countries like the U.S. that, although share our general political sentiments, have an entirely different system of law. Perhaps this means PEXA’s total growth is limited to only Commonwealth countries (and probably far fewer than that)? Either way, there is a certain extent to its growth, given the differences in human political ideology.

A final note, I would have thought the increased adoption and almost monopoly of this business would’ve equated to an increase in share price. Not yet. Listing back in 2021, down roughly 20%. Is this because of the lofty valuation in beginning, lack of attention at present, future growth already priced in, something else…?

For a quick summary:

  • For anyone to buy/sell property they have to adhere to legal considerations (regarding the actual transfer process) and PEXA basically handles this.


  • PEXA seems to profit from property transactions - irrespective of whether the property market does poorly or well (the main point I am very uncertain about).


  • From my own personal and professional experience, PEXA seems to be the dominant (and arguably essential) provider of electronic settlement services.


  • Does this dominance come from any sustained competitive advantage or is it simply the sluggishness of government and the legal system. Further, if the sluggishness of the legal system is something we can count on - is this not good for PEXA?


  • Can PEXA continue to grow into other jurisdictions and, if not-
  • -does this make the company unappealing or simply less attractive for its future prospects?


  • (rambling final) Is this just some strange combination of a less than mediocre business with network effects (by virtue of everyone using the service) and switching costs (by virtue of the industry that they are in) - making it like a bastardised double positive, wherein it actually becomes a negative, because both of these moats are simply a result of uninspired coopetition and regulatory advantage? In other words, what PEXA has is great, however, anyone could do it and the only reason they are winning is because they moved first and in correct manner (but may not necessarily have any sustainable edge).


I suppose I just wanted to see if anyone else has had any personal experience with PEXA as few seem to cover it despite its widespread usage in practice.

Ultimately, if I bought some shares in this thing and held it until I had grandkids, I would think it somewhat likely that the business survives in some form, considering the stickiness of the industry … but is there enough growth left or will it simply become a potential dividend payout depending on the amount of property transactions that happen year to year?

Would very much appreciate a discussion on PEXA as my understanding of it as a business/financial metrics is relatively limited.


Cheers.

Stannis
Added 3 months ago

Cheers everyone for your feedback @Solvetheriddle @Chagsy @Mujo@lowway

My apologies, it has been some time since I looked into the company and my memory suggested that the UK market had been picking up. My bad. Will do some further refreshing.

Some of the main points I gather:

  • The UK growth has been poor but some potential for improvement.
  • Meh/poor management previously but also potential for improvement.


Whilst I certainly do concur with the Queenslander comment @lowway would also love to hear from anyone interstate if they have ever had any experience with a competitor to PEXA.

Further, are there any other global and/or dominant players that do what PEXA does successfully between international jurisdictions? The reason for my initial post was that I was reading some disclosure document at work the other day and, when discussing ELNOs, the page mentioned PEXA and “Sympali”.

Thought it looked strange because I remembered the name from my initial look at PEXA and, sure enough, the competitor’s name is actually Sympli. Not the most encouraging sign, when the fleeting mention of your name is also misspelled. Led me to wonder whether PEXA could be worth a look again. Promising perhaps, but looks like it also might never really have much of an opportunity beyond Australia?

Should this be considered more as, say, a Transurban(y) home-dominant-and-stable-but-not-much-further-prospect-for-success-worldwide kind of business and not much more? Not necessarily saying that’s negative btw, considering I can only imagine how brutally painful it would be to implement/switch a property settlement system, and therefore how lucrative it would be the incumbent.

Ultimately, I was interested in the potential for some sort of international interoperability, but looks like I’m wrong and (even if UK and maybe, maybe Canada improves) there’s not much thesis for a dominance of markets using similar law (aka Torrens Title system)?

Regarding Torrens Title, At least when you ask Investopedia:

“Currently, it is primarily used in Australia, Canada, Fiji, the Dominican Republic, Ireland, Israel, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sir Lanka, and Thailand.”

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/torrens-certificate.asp

We can relatively (almost) certainly rule out most of the above jurisdictions as potential growth opportunities, then? Not necessarily looking for a discussion on any/all of these countries; but would be interested if there has been any success at all (with PEXA or other competitors) in implementing across countries that, shall we say, don’t exactly share the same legal or political persuasions as the company’s home nation. Perhaps because it’s rather risky for a nation-state to entrust a big part of the property ledger to a foreign entity?

Even though I reckon that’s pretty much a challenge for every business (international expansion, that is), it also seems like a bullet to the brain for any sustainable growth for an Australian-mature PEXA outside of, I’m not even sure… If it did reach maturity here locally, and couldn’t expand, would growth then come from population, housing supply increases, other factors?.

Overall, would it be fair to say that it looks like countries around the world, who have a need for a service that PEXA provides, will simply use their own home-domiciled company/system to entrust the work, or is there any likelihood of wider adoption? Could be that this is the sort of business in future that gravitates toward monopoly, but perhaps only within its home jurisdiction? Somewhat similar to electricity infrastructure, for example - very impractical to have multiple providers but also no chance for the incumbent to ever truly grow or penetrate the international markets. But I could be foolish with these false-analogies.

Sorry for the long-winded reply.

Cheers.

10

Mujo
Added 3 months ago

My view is yes it’s getting all the parties to create the network ie the conveyances trained in the software and all the banks and other parties signed up to use as well to create the network. Being a Torrens Title country is not enough.

i don’t think being foreign is a major issue in the UK/Canada etc from a business standpoint but being domestic might help with support. Ultimately australia only got to where we are with government mandates - UK did that with SME tax recently (equivalent of elodgments for tax). People don’t change unless forced by legislation or it’s a 10x better process for them.

8
Solvetheriddle
Added 3 months ago

@Stannis you can read some of my previous posts. briefly, my view of PXA is as follows.

  1. dominant in Australian conveyances buy/sell and refinance. a natural monopoly, that will grow with price rises and transactions in property and refinancing. the business should trade at a large valuation given the low risk and steady growth that the market loves, $10-15ps value
  2. UK--This is as yet unproven. There has not been government backing that assisted the company in Australia. Progress has been much slower than expected and has entailed buying some firms to gain access to volume. If this business succeeds, and it's still an "if" IMHO, the valuation could be $25-30. Note that some major banks have trialled the technology.
  3. I have been a critic of the C-suite and board. which is a reason it is only a modest holding. The CFO bought a lot of speculative "play things" at high prices, and the CEO seemed to be a public servant type (a bit out of his depth in this case). the board seemed to be old CBA and MQG hacks. there was even a bizarre story a few weeks ago about a Canadian takeover (what planet are these guys on!!) There is now a new CFO--who seems good. Now, there is a new CEO and a guy on the ground in the UK who looks like he knows what he is doing, so the delta appears +. The board still sucks IMHO.
  4. the next obvious market is Canada, but the UK is and should be the focus.

hope that helps

20

Chagsy
Added 3 months ago

@Stannis I pretty much agree with everything @Solvetheriddle and @Mujo have written.

If they are successful and the UK adopts their offering then another near monopoly is pretty much assured. See previous posts from us on the the subject

The risks have changed somewhat of late:

the execution risk in the UK seems to have lessened with the new appointments

the bark up of its monopoly position seems to have increased a little in Australia


FWIW I think the future is likely to be good, ie a good outcome in both countries but I could give a probability on either: maybe UK 50:50, Australia retains monopoly 90:10?

I don't hold but have been just about to buy in for about 5 years! Maybe now is the time?

15
Mujo
Added 3 months ago

I would say the UK has been anything but successful and an expensive project to get to the same scale. PEXA australia started much the same way Visa did in the US - owned by all parties with everyone having a vested interest to integrate and have it succeed. And so it did. Same with how IEL got to where it is with IELTs. In the UK PEXA hasn’t had that advantage - perhaps just first to a possible new way of doing things - but slow, very slow, or expensive by acquisition to build the network.

Australia is now ex exponential growth imho - though i’m sure there is some market growth from housing supply. The politicians/regulators are trying to break the monopoly but when you have the only viable competitor the incompetent ASX - the marginally more competent management at PEXA has done okay. Insert buffet quote about ham sandwhich and management here.

Think you’re right thought, great low growth business - Uk still a question market and i think they have little to no chance expanding successfully into other countries within the next decade.

I think this will be a nice dividend play one day. I hope REA or someone doesn’t try and gobble it up - but i assume that would get blocked these days.

16

lowway
Added 3 months ago

Hey @Stannis, there was quite a bit of discussion about $PXA about 5 months ago on the forum titled PXA> Initial Research, where quite a few of us opined a position and what we knew. I'm still a holder IRL portfolio since the demise or should I say, re-privatization of LINK that was a large shareholder and threw some $PXA crumbs our way when they went off market. @Mujo I've been holding my breath for some time on a dividend, but nothing on the near-term horizon on front and no mention going forward at this stage.

As a Queenslander as well @Stannis (seems like all the good guys on SM are !!) and having done conveyancing suing PEXA for the settlement, etc, it's a no brainer. I would think they have Australia under control for some time yet, but global growth will prove their biggest hurdle, especially as other =s have mentioned, with their current (average) Board. The new CEO should be a good start, but he'll need time to forge the right path I would think.

UK has proven to be bloody hard so far, but they are still a chance of cracking that nut with the right team. Canada on the other hand will be super hard after Dye & Durham gouged and pillaged ONT province once they used their own system and had monopolization before upping the price to the point where they were openly criticized by all. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but I doubt they could attempt Canada (not ONT) until they get better traction in UK.

Anyway, still a holder IRL portfolio and still about 8% up, so happy to hold for the medium to long term to see what may transpire here.

12