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Pinned straw:

Added 2 years ago

Telstra's latest hail Mary is AI. Seriously, how much money has this behemoth torched in the pursuit of growth?

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This is a company bereft of vision, incapable of any original innovation and burdened by bloat and bureaucracy.

The reality is, the business is very much ex-growth, and has been for a long time. But it's also a cash cow, (or could be) but instead of maximising that and delivering it to shareholders, they lurch from ill-informed acquisition, strategic pivot and cost-cutting exercise to the next.

Maybe this $700m investment will be the exception to the rule, but I doubt it.

Solvetheriddle
Added 2 years ago

Yeah, I've been lazy on these types of stocks. WES, TLS, BHP, and CBA have all done well for me, but they are part of a dividend portfolio that is past its use-by date--now these are mainly stub holdings. The major focus for me is quality growth stories, given the time I now have to analyse and invest in them. It's hard to see any of the above generating eye-catching returns over the next 10 years. I'll use the next result season to reallocate and take the tax hit. so be it.

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UlladullaDave
Added 2 years ago

It's a bit of a shame that what was once one of the world's best engineering companies has to hire a bunch of management consultants to roll out what will probably not amount to more than a new chat bot for customer service. But if you take a look at the board you can see that Telstra is no longer powered for engineering, it's just a directionless infrastructure business with a poor retail experience tacked on.

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Rick
Added 2 years ago

@Strawman perhaps this might be the one thing that turns the business around. It would certainly be the exception after more than a decade of declining performance! ;)

The metrics speak for themselves. Over 10 years all these metrics have declined:

  • Revenue
  • Earnings
  • Cashflow
  • Dividends
  • Book value
  • ROE
  • ROC

There is one metric that has increased from 10 years ago,

  • Net gearing! :D

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Strawman
Added 2 years ago

Not if you ignore one-off, non-cash write downs @Rick haha ($715m in FY25 alone).

What's wild is that even if you use underlying earnings, and grow EPS by 7%, they are still on a forward PE of 20!

Sure, it's a decent grossed up yield thanks to those juicy franking credits, about 6.4% at present, but even accounting for those divvies shareholders have a TOTAL return of 11.1% over the last decade.

Hard pass.

23

UlladullaDave
Added 2 years ago

Not if you ignore one-off, non-cash write downs @Rick  haha ($715m in FY25 alone).

I wonder how much of that $715m was work done by Accenture.

17

NewbieHK
Added 2 years ago

Maybe it’s time for @Strawman to take the bite. I mean Strawman AI has a nice ring to it and it might put a nice premium on the valuation for an inevitable ASX launch ;).

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