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Pinned straw:

Added 11 months ago

Telstra's latest hail Mary is AI. Seriously, how much money has this behemoth torched in the pursuit of growth?

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This is a company bereft of vision, incapable of any original innovation and burdened by bloat and bureaucracy.

The reality is, the business is very much ex-growth, and has been for a long time. But it's also a cash cow, (or could be) but instead of maximising that and delivering it to shareholders, they lurch from ill-informed acquisition, strategic pivot and cost-cutting exercise to the next.

Maybe this $700m investment will be the exception to the rule, but I doubt it.

Solvetheriddle
Added 11 months ago

Yeah, I've been lazy on these types of stocks. WES, TLS, BHP, and CBA have all done well for me, but they are part of a dividend portfolio that is past its use-by date--now these are mainly stub holdings. The major focus for me is quality growth stories, given the time I now have to analyse and invest in them. It's hard to see any of the above generating eye-catching returns over the next 10 years. I'll use the next result season to reallocate and take the tax hit. so be it.

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UlladullaDave
Added 11 months ago

It's a bit of a shame that what was once one of the world's best engineering companies has to hire a bunch of management consultants to roll out what will probably not amount to more than a new chat bot for customer service. But if you take a look at the board you can see that Telstra is no longer powered for engineering, it's just a directionless infrastructure business with a poor retail experience tacked on.

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Rick
Added 11 months ago

@Strawman perhaps this might be the one thing that turns the business around. It would certainly be the exception after more than a decade of declining performance! ;)

The metrics speak for themselves. Over 10 years all these metrics have declined:

  • Revenue
  • Earnings
  • Cashflow
  • Dividends
  • Book value
  • ROE
  • ROC

There is one metric that has increased from 10 years ago,

  • Net gearing! :D

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Strawman
Added 11 months ago

Not if you ignore one-off, non-cash write downs @Rick haha ($715m in FY25 alone).

What's wild is that even if you use underlying earnings, and grow EPS by 7%, they are still on a forward PE of 20!

Sure, it's a decent grossed up yield thanks to those juicy franking credits, about 6.4% at present, but even accounting for those divvies shareholders have a TOTAL return of 11.1% over the last decade.

Hard pass.

23

UlladullaDave
Added 11 months ago

Not if you ignore one-off, non-cash write downs @Rick  haha ($715m in FY25 alone).

I wonder how much of that $715m was work done by Accenture.

17

NewbieHK
Added 11 months ago

Maybe it’s time for @Strawman to take the bite. I mean Strawman AI has a nice ring to it and it might put a nice premium on the valuation for an inevitable ASX launch ;).

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