No idea at all how they got to that valuation, just saw it as a note amongst various broker ratings. But interestingly its new coverage for them - its not as if they are chasing a previous valuation Up or down. Possibly:

a) Cosying up as a friendly broker for future capital raise / block trade. (Seems unlikely given that Neuren are returning capital to shareholders)

b) Very optimistic that Daybue will bust past a billion in sales, get a massive bonus from $ACAD, do brilliantly in Europe (3 years away before we see major sales there surely), drive a flurry of new Rett diagnoses (and potentially off-label use apart from Rett Syndrome) and the new drug will be a blockbuster (?4-8 years from major marketing).

c) The intern analyst applied the wrong discount rate and currency conversion

@Aaronfzr I vote c).

$1bn for DAYBUE ain’t happening any time soon. EU country level approvals will be slow, as once EU approval is given, $ACAD has to work with each member state has to work through price negotiations with national, public buyers.

Unlike US where private insurers are usually quick to add to their schedules once US FDA approves, in EU the country level process can take years. And even then, prices will be c. 70% of US, and accessibility will be lower and variable.

I sometimes wonder how well the covering analysts actually understand their markets.

Ho hum. At least we are agreed it’s worth a lot more than $14!

I am poised to add back more once we get the green light on start of PMS Phase 3. Surely can’t be long now. There aren’t many patients in the dataset to analyse and relatively few variables … trial size, end points. I’m sure Jon hasn’t given the whole team an extended summer break. So maybe FDA is taking its time answering emails, and between FDA, and the Board, the clinical team is in a bit of a do-loop?