Forum Topics XRG XRG Intro and buy thesis

Pinned straw:

Added one year ago

XRG has exactly what I am looking for in an investment, an imminent and evident unrecognised pivot in performance (well until today maybe). The type of thing that stopped quality SAAS business being recognised in the early days is in play, namely a delayed and hidden profitability from growth investment, high margins and sticky revenue commitments.

Interview of CEO Wayne Jones by Alan Kohler provides a lot of insight (I will try and get a print copy for those who don’t have access): xReality Group: All Geared Up - Intelligent Investor (released Friday so weekend listeners were buying today it seems)

Forbes article for a bit of history: xReality Group going from SAS to SaaS

The business has been investing the profits and cash flows of it’s core business into a new business that is now achieving strong commercial success to the point that it should generate more income than the core business by the end of FY25. The core Entertainment business has performed reasonably well over the last 2 years but the costs to develop the new Enterprise business (6m+) have made XRG unprofitable and unattractive to investors.

In addition, debt has been built up and dilution from capital raises has been needed to fund the development of the Enterprise business. This I expect to see change in the next 4C due to the working capital positive nature of the Enterprise business and quite frankly astonishing growth rate from market acceptance in the US.

Operator XR is the Enterprise product and investment case for XRG. The equipment, licence and systems are sold on a 3 year agreement with payment up front in most cases. So in the first year 1/6th of revenue is recognised, 1/3rd in the next two and 1/6th in the final year on average, but the current high growth rate will sku this as the weight of new contracts in a year occur later. 

To measure success we can look at Revenue Vs Revenue + change in Deferred Revenue as graphed below, which shows a leading indicator for how revenue will move. Looking at FY25 based on YTD information (DoD contract + customer additions), the lead indicator is streaking ahead of revenue as the Enterprise business scales and goes from a rounding error Vs the Entertainment business to the dominant business by the end of FY25.

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The DoD contract: US$5.6m over 20 months Development of augmented reality (Vs VR), which is not the final product but XRG will own all the IP at the end of the project.

The upside opportunity is exceptional given it is currently only a $20m cap (EV $28m) company and my expectations that operating cash flows likely to be well over $4m for FY25 (FCF of $2m+) however NPAT is unlikely to be positive due to delayed revenue recognition and cost build to support growth. Profitability I would expect H1 FY26.

LA SWAT is using their equipment + 40 other PD’s

70-75% GM for Enterprise

US$150-200k current deal size average for customers

Expectations for 4C Q2 FY25: I expect positive Operating CF to exceed IP costs to provide positive FCF due to Q2 usually being a strong quarter for Entertainment (Est 2-2.5m up from under 2m) but increasing Enterprise contributions (Est 3-4m up from 2.3m) driving total receipts in the range of 5-6.5m. 

As such I believe Wayne Jones statement in the interview with Alan Kohler that additional capital raise is not likely due to expecting positive CF in Q2 and the additional 500k debt facility to allow for inventory build to provide any required buffer on the $1.5m closing balance from Q1.

I have a lot more analysis to finalise and add, so will publish as complete, but my general conclusion that this is an asymmetric investment with massive upside and clear evidence of likely success is basically locked in!

Disc: I own as of today and looking to buy more.

Strawman
Added one year ago

Nice write up @Tom73

I'll see if I can line up a meeting with management

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Tom73
Added one year ago

Thanks @Strawman a meeting would be great, Wayne seems like a real straight shooter (yes SAS pun intended) so it would be great to hear him talk more about the business and opportunity to firm up what the opportunity is. I am shy on doing a valuation at this point due to the rate of change in the business but better understanding the mechanics will help and add more understanding to figures as they come out.

Cheers.

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Arizona
Added one year ago

Great writeup @Tom73 You have got me looking closer at this one.

There's a bit of reading to do.

So yesterday's price jump is Intelligent Investor members getting on board? Is that right?

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Tom73
Added one year ago

Thanks @Arizona ,

I don't have any proof but it's a highly illiquid company that has just had some reputable spooking via Intelligent Investor to a group of investors looking for things to invest in and who have had the weekend to listen to it. So I am pretty sure that is what it is, a common phenomenon generally for small caps is a Monday bump as "retail" investors do their research on the weekend and buy on Monday.

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Arizona
Added one year ago

Makes sense @Tom73

I note buyers were pretty thin on the ground compared to sellers this morning, but that has shifted a bit now with some buyers coming in.

I'll go and keep reading

Thanks again

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Strawman
Added one year ago

Just got off the phone with the CEO Wayne Jones.

He's about to fly to the US, but is keen to chat with us in early Feb. Will post details as soon as it's locked in.

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Tom73
Added one year ago

Thanks, it must be for Shot Show, they are an exhibitor:

2025 SHOT Show Planner - Operator XR

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lastever
Added one year ago

If I'm reading it correctly they have about 8m in debt at an average of 11%. It'll be worth keeping an eye on the DOGE agenda. I assume that Republicans will want to reverse the 'defund the police' vibe and support the police so DOGE may not be applied to law enforcement agencies, or funding may even increase. But the last few years have been tough for US police agencies and I co-incidentally saw a fairly similar US training provider recently complaining that agencies were struggling to maintain their training budgets.

However, it looks like XReality are perhaps disrupting that industry and their credibility, insights and better designed systems seems to have them gaining where competitors are stalling.

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Tom73
Added 7 days ago

Alan Kohler 2nd Interview (24/3/26)

Alan has just interviewed Wayne Jones again (available with Intelligent Investor – may be paywalled), it was his interview early last year that put me onto XRG. There was a price spike following the interview last year, so we may see it again following this one.

My notes on discussion:

  • DoD paid XRG to develop a new Mixed Reality (MR)product which uses cameras to augment the real world (augmented rather than virtual reality). The drone defence product is an extension of this as they move from a narrow scope use case with the DoD to a broader application. Was north of 20 companies bidding for the original DoD which they won.
  • Just tipped over 100 customers in the US, average US$150k value. Note was 89 at the end of December so they are keeping their run rate up at around 10+ a quarter.
  • Mixed Reality (MR) suite is yet to be launched, will not replace VR because MR is about augmenting existing training facilities. Pricing will be similar, but mission pack based.
  • Texas DPS contract involved 26 separate agencies across Texas, all the kits are in operation, north of 100 headsets.
  • XRG is in the top 3 VR training systems companies in the US now (customer based), but use of VR is only nascent so the market is growing rapidly, with an 18,000 agency opportunity in the US in law enforcement alone (XRG have 100 so far).
  • December launched the counter drone system, small drone, hard to train for (shotguns most effective – like clay pigeon shooting…), beyond shooting it, it is about unit tactics on contact with a drone that is important which is way beyond a shooting range type training tool. Close to being on market, will be equipment agnostic for counter drone equipment, so don’t want to pigeonhole based on specific equipment. Company develops products from ground up – ie developed using teams with real experiences. Building up distributors in Europe and attending trade shows. Price will be similar to OP2 system, a mission pack add on approach.
  • Getting a lot of interest out of Europe from the police, but the process is longer because these agencies are more centralised and in-depth review process (note this suggests less contracts but they will be massive). Wayne thinks they will be able to disrupt the European market, expecting a similar aggressive take up like in US.
  • iFLY divestment underway with a consulting group, it’s holding $16m on the balance sheet, didn’t want to speculate on what they may get – understandable given commercial negotiations.

Wayne was at his laid-back best and spoke comfortably about the expanding market opportunity beyond US Police Departments, being the DoD AR spin outs and Drone training as well as progress to getting into the European market.

Disc: I own RL+SM

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