Forum Topics PNV PNV Questions for PNV

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

I thought we could work up a bunch of questions we would like to ask management/David Williams. Or if the timing works, even Andrew could use the questions with an inverview with DW.

So i'll kick off some potential questions. And as a group, lets amend/add/delete questions (and maybe even guess the answers).


1 - Does PNV do competititor analysis, and if so, where does PNV think it ranks in terms of growth? Put another way, does PNV think it is still growing faster than it's competitors?

2 - Many of PNV's competitors have a portfolio of products. This tends to lock in brands with surgeons and hospitals. How is PNV addressing this approach by PNV's competitors?

3 - Why have we not yet been informed of an substaintial sales in India? Can PNV provide some analysis of potential sales in India? Put another way, can you provide the analysis for the justification for going into the Indian market.

4 - It appears that RoW sales is not showing the same growth trajectory that the USA displayed over the past 4 years. Does PNV have an explaination why this is the case? Are there any reasons for a different adoption by RoW countries?



I'll add more as we go. And from time to time, I'll put them all in one post to make it easier.

Parko5
Added 2 months ago

Ok so i have emailed these to PNV and DW. Hopefully they are addressed at Monday's webinar.

If you have any other questions...email them to PNV at investor@polynovo.com

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mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

Nice one @Parko5 - these are great questions. I'll be listening eagerly on the call to hear if they are addressed. I'll put in related questions to each at the start of the call, hopefully to increase the chances that they don't get ignored!

On other news

I was surprised to see the sharp uptick in the short position, as at Feb 17th (see Figure 1 below). It is getting back to where we were in early 2023.

I think the short thesis is:

  • Rate of growth slowing sharply across the board - structural not a one-off
  • $PNV now growing with the broader sector - no more market share to be gained ($AVH is now the standout, in terms of growth rate***)
  • Competitors have broader product portfolios so are advantaged
  • $PNV is going to be a smaller company than we thought before
  • The covering analysts are going to reflect this in their updates after the results (not a single one has updated yet!)
  • Price will move sustainably to a low band, as $PNV is relatively expensive in it segment


*** Note on Competition

DW will say that ReCell complements BTM, This is true. But $AVH are pushing their licenced-in dermal substitute Cohealyx, which as I understand it is a direct competitor to BTM (see Figure 2 below from recent $AVH presentation. Note this picture applies to trauma wounds as well). We know the sales reps in this segment are much "higher touch" than typical pharma reps, actually seeing the surgeons and sometimes being in the surgery to give advice to new adopters. So now the large $AVH salesforce (recall, $AVH have pre-invested heavily in this in the US, which is one reason why their losses are so high!) can offer more of a full service advice to the surgeon, sharing good practices on how to use ReCell and CoHealyx together. So conceptually, I can see how competition in the US starts to heat up.

Figure 1

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Figure 2


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Disc: I have previously held all of but no longer hold any of $PNV, $AVH and $ARX at some time over recent years.


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Parko5
Added 2 months ago

Wow. I had not looked at the shorts for a few days.

DW is going to have to give the market a peak at RoW growth. And why he thinks everything is tracking.

this will be really interesting.

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