Pinned straw:
Cheers @Magneto , thanks for compiling. They are small numbers except for Wayne (I suspect a very significant number for him) but it a small company and so I feel they still carry weight of conviction for the rest of the board also.
Here is the review of the Appendix 3Y's of director interests including rights and options with ownership based on fully diluted 628.9m shares/Options. Not sure where all the other options sit, there should be 66m according to the last Appendix 3H:
Also looking at the last AGM and the equity issues from that were high as set out below. Part of the reason was a stuff up in FY23 option issues which hadn't been correctly approved via AGM vote (rectification notice issued 26/4/24), so some catch up. Also, they have been conserving cash so the allocations don't seem unreasonable but something to keep an eye on once they don't need to save cash (it's a 2.5% dilution in total).
The other interesting thing out of the FY24 AGM was Resolution 4 which was the approval of a 10% placement of shares available to the board for the next 12 months. This is on top of the 15% capacity available under listing rules, so they have an ability to do a capital raise for up to 25% of shares on issue. Wayne has said they don't need to raise to operate, and their cash flow outlook supports this, but they may be looking at an acquisition and making sure they have the fire power to raise if needed. A good question to ask Wayne about if Andrew is able to tee up a meeting.
Buying pressure seems to have died today, the excitement from Alan Kohler's interview has been killed by the price rise it seems.
I am still working on a valuation, but there are to many moving parts to have anything beyond a 12 month view on how the Operator XR business will evolve. The FREAK business is up for sale as well, I haven't seen any carve out of that business so don't know the impact except it should be profit and cash flow neutral, but the balance sheet impact is going to be important.
If the Operator XR business continues to grow around current rates and Entertainment business remains flat, then I can't see the business being worth less than $100m in 2-3 years. Thats assuming no growth in the DoD opportunity, hence a lot of upside opportunity on that figure if they crack the augmented reality (as opposed to current VR) application the DoD is looking for as part of the current project.